The Denver Nuggets are one win away from their first NBA championship in franchise history and they have the opportunity to clinch it on their home floor against the only team to beat them at Ball Arena in the playoffs this season. The Miami Heat, who have made history all postseason, will need to do it three more times to cap off their improbable Finals run.
Our Action Network betting analysts have four best bets today, including player props, a first quarter spread and more angles for Monday's potential closeout game. Check out their expert picks for Heat vs. Nuggets Game 5 below.
NBA Odds & Best Bets
Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets
Joe Dellera: Caleb Martin was the talk of the NBA world after nearly winning the Eastern Conference finals MVP, but then saw his minutes slashed in Games 1 and 2 of the NBA Finals to 24.6 and 21.4. However, in Game 2, Martin played nearly the entire fourth quarter, and he has now done so in three consecutive games. His minutes have climbed to 31.5 in Game 3 and 32.9 in Game 4.
Martin can go off with either his scoring or his rebounding, as we saw against the Celtics, and I think that’s important for this type of combo stat where we simply are looking for volume and an increase in his role. When he’s played at least 25 minutes, he has exceeded this total in 15 of 18 postseason games, 12 straight, and in Games 3 and 4 vs Denver.
Fading Martin was profitable to start the series; however, I think this has moved too far in the opposite direction with his minutes seeing an uptick in back-to-back games.
Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets
Bryan Fonseca: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope didn't hit this prop until Game 4.
Part of that is the Miami Heat hardly played any zone in the game, and the Denver Nuggets, again, got what they want inside.
KCP hit over 1.5 3s in every game against the Lakers and finally did once again Miami. We'll play him here to do it a second straight time, accounting for more of the Heat's shape-shifty zone, for KCP being a release valve for said zone and for Aaron Gordon not having a million points again.
KCP is shooting 41.3% from deep at home in the playoffs, nearly five percentage points better than he's been on the road (36.6%). Role players are supposed to shoot better at home, especially in a closeout game, which this is supposed to be — we'll see if it actually is, though.
That said, I like this at +110.
Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets
Brandon Anderson: If not for a wild outlier fourth quarter in Game 2, it's starting to feel like we'd already be 1–2–3 Cancun.
The Heat won that quarter by 11 with an absurd 190 Offensive Rating. They're -47 the other 15 quarters.
Miami has lost six of its last eight games, five of the six losses by double digits. The Heat have a 109.5 ORTG in that stretch, which would've ranked 29th in the regular season. They're averaging 99.4 PPG across those eight games, with -13.8 Net Rating the first three quarters.
It might be time to accept that the clock has struck midnight on Cinderella — and may have done so a couple weeks ago. If not for that crazy fourth quarter, Miami might already be cooked. If not for a rolled ankle on the first play of a Game 7, the Heat might not be here at all.
It doesn't take away from what this team accomplished this postseason, but this Heat squad looks beat. First there was no answer for Jokic, then Murray. In Game 3, Miami stopped everyone else but lost to two men anyway. In Game 4, they slowed those two and lost to everybody else.
Spo and the Heat have thrown everything including the kitchen sink at Denver, and the Nuggets offense just keeps cranking out 120 ORTG games without even playing its A-game yet. Denver's offensive floor is too good, and Miami's ceiling no longer looks accessible. Miami's 3-point attempt rate dropped back to 35% the last two games after taking and making nearly half their shots from downtown in Game 2. The Heat are averaging 95.2 PPG outside of that outlier quarter. That's just not good enough, not against these Nuggets.
No disrespect — Miami has had a great run. I'll respect the Heat by staying away from the alt Nuggets lines I'd be taking against almost anyone else.
Time to put this season on ice.
Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets
Austin Wang: Miami has done well in the first quarter this postseason with a 14-8 first quarter against the spread record. The Heat have covered this three times in a row, as they have done a great job executing their game plan from the get-go and bringing energy from the opening tip.
Their starters have come out with great energy three games in a row and have generally had success in the first quarter in the postseason overall.
With their second-half performances in their previous two games, I see a team that is fatigued and may not have the legs to last the entire game. In an elimination game, I like the Heat to make another strong push and cover the first-quarter spread of +3.5.
Pick: Heat 1st Quarter +3.5 (-122) | Play to +3 |
