The NBA Finals have gone back and forth for the first three games and Game 4 will be pivotal for the Miami Heat. After tying up the series with a road win, the Heat lost Game 3 at home to the Denver Nuggets, who came with an extra gear in the second half. That puts the Heat in a virtual must-win situation to avoid heading back to Denver in a 1-3 hole.
Our Action Network betting analysts have six best bets today, including player props, a team total and more angles for Friday's pivotal matchup. Check out their expert picks for Nuggets vs. Heat Game 4 below.
NBA Odds & Best Bets
Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat
Joe Dellera: Jamal Murray has been incredible throughout the NBA Finals. While he’s an elite scoring threat, his proficiency as a passer has shone through.
Murray has recorded 10 assists in each game so far on 18 potential assists per game. The Nuggets are crushing the Heat with the Murray/Jokic pick-and-roll, and Murray is averaging 5.7 assists just to Jokic. This is a huge advantage Denver has, and I expect them to continue using this successful play.
Murray’s assists prop has climbed in each game so far and now is at 7.5, but it’s simply not high enough given Murray’s usage. I’ll take the 7.5 assists and also play 10+ at (+255 DK). There’s a bit more value in the 10+ than Double Double because Murray’s rebounding has seen an uptick, but generally, he’d be getting that through the assists.
Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat
Bryan Fonseca: This Miami Heat team of masochists plays better as underdogs after losing games. With their backs against the wall. When they have little to no business winning. See Game 3 against the Milwaukee Bucks or Game 7 against the Boston Celtics.
See all the double-digit comebacks in this playoff run, like in Game 4 and 5 against the Bucks or Games 1 and 2 against the Boston Celtics.
Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler, though not amazingly efficient, showed up in Game 3 — no one else on the Heat did, and that's ultimately why they lost.
That hasn't been a consistent trend in the playoffs.
When facing a deficit of at least 12 points this postseason, the Heat are 7-7 following their loss in Game 3, and the rest of the NBA is 6-59 combined.
If their shooters return to what has been their postseason form, this should hit. If not, Nuggets in 5 is certainly in play. But I'll bet on the shooting coming back for now.
Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat
Chris Raybon: The Nuggets finally figured out that they didn’t need to over-help on Jimmy Butler and should stay home on Heat shooters in Game 3, and it led to them holding the Heat under 50 points and 40% shooting in the first half for the second time in three games. The only time the Heat cleared 50 first-half points – 51 in Game 2 – was the only time the first half went over 104 points, and it took some all-time defensive gaffes by the Nuggets.
Now it’s the Heat’s turn to up the defensive intensity after an admittedly poor showing in Game 3, which should keep the total in the low 100s or high 90s even if the Heat shoot better.
But it’s not that simple, as fatigue tends to play more and more of a factor the deeper a series goes, and Game 4 will take place with a break of just one day in between – meaning just 48 hours have passed since Bam Adebayo played his fifth straight 40-minute game and Jimmy Butler played his fourth 40-plus-minute stint in five games, not to mention Jamal Murray (44:35) and Nikola Jokic (43:45) barely leaving the floor. This series has been played at a sub-90 pace and could be even slower to start on Friday night.
Per our Action Labs data, NBA Finals Game 4 unders are 14-4 (78%) since 2005, including a perfect 10-0 when the home team is down 2-1.
Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat
Brandon Anderson: I have five bets that I'm making for Game 4, but this one stands out above the rest. I'm still not sure I trust Miami's offense, for better or for worse — but I do trust Denver's.
What's wild is that Denver hasn't even played its A-game yet this series. Even without that A-game, Denver is up 2-1 with a sparkling 119.7 Offensive Rating.
The Nuggets' offensive floor is too good, and that's the angle I'm betting for Game 4. Give me Denver's team total over 106.5, just too low for these Nuggets.
Denver is over that number in 16 of 18 playoff games (89%). That includes all four losses, which gives us another avenue to hit. Denver was over 106.5 in 87% of Jokic regular season games.
The Nuggets scored 104, 108, and 109 this series, only that slow because of a glacial pace. Expect a slight uptick in Game 4 with two tired teams on short rest for the only time in the Finals. Tired teams lead to defensive lapses and turnovers, which mean easy points and faster pace.
Denver has scored at least 25 in three quarters each Finals game, averaging 22.3 in the one "off" quarter, with 29+ in one peak quarter each game. That's a floor of 101 points, even at this pace.
Bet: Nuggets TT over 106.5 (-114, FanDuel) |
Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat
Anderson: This is another one from my betting card. Denver did a better job stayed attached to shooters in Game 3, but Miami's best hope in this series is to increase variance by bombing heaps of 3s and trying to outscore the Nuggets offense.
Miami inserted Kevin Love into the starting lineup in Game 2 after a DNP in the opener, and he's done his job, spacing the offense and getting 3s up.
Love has two 3s each start on 2-of-5 and 2-of-6 shooting. He's made multiple 3s in 11 of 18 playoff games despite playing under 24 minutes in all but one of them.
The numbers get even better if you exclude a Celtics series that was a bad matchup and saw him phased out for Caleb Martin. Love is averaging 1.8-of-5.4 3s outside that series, with 2+ in nine of 13. I'll play him to go over 1.5 3s at +145, an implied 41% versus our expected 69% hit rate.
Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat
Andrew O'Connor-Watts: I'm betting a lot of player props for this matchup, which I wrote about in the Game 4 betting guide. The Heat have been impossible to stave off all postseason. They’ve consistently outperformed expectations thanks to brilliant coaching from Erik Spoelstra and what some like to call “Heat culture.”
While the exact definition of Heat culture might be elusive, it can certainly be felt in Miami’s elite execution and is perhaps best summed up by a mental toughness and a refusal to quit.
So, how does that help us from a betting standpoint?
That mindset is best seen in Miami's Net Rating by quarter. The Heat have a negative Net Rating in every quarter in the playoffs, except the fourth. In the last 12 minutes of the game, Miami has a +18.2 Net Rating — the best of any team in any quarter these playoffs. Before Wednesday, the last time the Heat lost a fourth quarter was Game 4 against the Boston Celtics.
Butler and the Heat know what’s at stake in Game 4, and even if they’re down big through three quarters, they won’t easily give up on their season. My largest play of the game is the Miami Heat fourth quarter moneyline (+100). You can bet +.5 or even +1.5 and pay the juice, but I’ll bet on them to win the quarter outright. I lean toward the Heat for the game, but I can't go against the Nuggets right now.
