The Nuggets just defeated the Timberwolves in a game that wasn't particularly close as Nikola Jokic was incredibly dominant. Over the past three games, the Wolves, after going up 2-0 in the series, have led for one total minute in the second half.
Before the season, I wrote about how 36 of the past 40 champions have had either a former, but still in his prime MVP, or someone who won MVP that season. Well, there is only one team like that left in these playoffs: the Nuggets.
Meanwhile, the Celtics, who are favored to win it all, have played teams missing their best players and lost games against them. Boston's net rating with Jayson Tatum on the floor is worse than Denver's was with Jokic during the regular season. In the playoffs, Tatum hasn't looked dominant. The Celtics unlock so much of their team with Kristaps Porzingis, who isn't healthy and it's unclear when he will be back.
This series against the Wolves has been instructive for Denver. Jokic is capable of figuring out any defense and the Nuggets' defense plays hard and doesn't give up easy shots. In the Western Conference Finals, the Nuggets will go against either the Mavericks or Thunder, neither of which has a big enough body to slow down Jokic.
Both also have real weaknesses against Denver. For the Thunder, it's the rebounding and inability of Chet Holmgren to be effective. For the Mavs, it's Luka Doncic's knee, and the way the Nuggets will relentlessly hunt Dallas' bad defenders.
In the two games the Nuggets played against the Celtics this season, the Celtics had no answer for Jokic, who scored at will and racked up assists. Sportsbooks currently have odds on different final results, and they seem to imply that if these teams faced off in the NBA Finals, the Celtics would be favored and the Nuggets would be around +150.
Again, one of these teams has the better player, better coach and a track record of playoff success. The other does not.
Meanwhile, Denver is maybe playing better than ever. Justin Holiday and Christian Braun have been incredibly effective in this series, which gives Denver a real bench for the first time. Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter seem almost better than last season, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is locked in defensively and has been a menace on Karl-Anthony Towns this series.
Again, why aren't the Nuggets favored to win the title?
It's the same reason they were underdogs against the Suns, near even money at -1.5 against the Lakers, had the third-best odds to win the title going into this series and were written off down 2-0 in this series. The media, sportsbooks and public will always write off Jokic because he doesn't look like a traditional NBA star. The truth, however, is that he's — by far — the best player in the NBA. In fact, the gap between him and No. 2 may be wider than we've seen in a long time.
Here's What I'm Betting:
Nuggets to Win 4-2 Over Minnesota at +120 on FanDuel: 1 Unit
Nikola Jokic to be Western Conference Finals MVP at -105 on FanDuel, DraftKings or ESPN BET: 1.5 Units (Would bet down to -125 or take Nuggets straight)
Nikola Jokic to be NBA Finals MVP at +300 on FanDuel or ESPNBet: 2.5 Units (Would bet down to +200 or take Nuggets straight)
BetRivers has the odds the same for the Nuggets to win and Jokic to be MVP, which is accurate. He is the lifeblood of this team and would be the MVP under any circumstance if they win. (There's also a chance he wins if Denver loses in the Finals, given the gap between him and Tatum.)
This is the longest the Nuggets are going to be to win the title. Be sure to bet it now before the chance is gone.
