The Celtics and Mavericks present a fascinating matchup of punch and counter-punch in the NBA Finals. The two teams are stylistically very different and well built to stress the other.
The Mavericks are elite at protecting the rim while the Celtics don't really try to score much at the rim. Boston has clutch-time issues, and Dallas has two elite closers.
With that in mind, here are some advantages and disadvantages in the series and ways to bet them before tipoff of Game 1 on Thursday of the NBA Finals between the Dallas Mavericks and Boston Celtics.
ADVANTAGE: Luka Doncic vs. Jrue Holiday
Jrue Holiday is a masterful, world-class, all-universe defender. He's regarded as one of the absolute best defenders in the league night-to-night for 90 feet by most players in the league. He's also 33, three years past the Bucks' 2021 title run when he shined so bright defensively.
Holiday is still an elite defender; he's just not as elite. But Holiday's defensive ability isn't the problem here; it's his size.
I singled out the Wolves as a favorable matchup for Luka Doncic based on their lack of size. Jaden McDaniels weighs 185 pounds while Doncic weighs 230. That's a lot that McDaniels was giving up, despite how good of a defender he is.
Lu Dort was effective against Doncic in the second round, and he weighs 220. Dort is 6-foot-4, and so is Holiday.
But Holiday weighs 205.
Doncic is deadly when his shoulder bump is able to create separation. He's not trying to burst past defenders with lightning quickness or blazing speed, and he's not trying to back them under the basket. He just needs a guy who's small enough for him to bump to create separation and not long enough to block his step back. Holiday is both.
This was the very first play from the last Celtics-Mavericks matchup.
Boston gives up that switch easily. There are ways to avoid it, mostly by having Holiday guard Kyrie Irving, a worse screener, which will make it easier for the Celtics' primary defender on Doncic (most likely Jaylen Brown) to stay attached through the screen.
But Boston will give up the switch sometimes.
On some level, "if you want to try and hunt Holiday in isolation, go ahead" will be part of the strategy.
But Luka is both a mastermind and a bit of a psychopath when it comes to hunting. He'll go after the toughest guy on the floor just to break them down and force help, and he'll target mismatches whether it's size or speed.
Holiday has to, A) try to avoid these switches if the Mavericks target him, and B) make Doncic pay on the other end.
There's no real betting advantage here; Boston won't take Holiday off the floor for Payton Pritchard because that would be a very bad idea. But if Doncic decides to tear up the Celtics by attacking what should be one of their best defenders over and over, it could force Boston out of its defensive principles.
ADVANTAGE: Mavericks Will Crush on the Glass
Look at the matchups in this clip. Dereck Lively II is going to slam home a put-back dunk off a Kyrie miss.
But you don't need to watch the ball; see who's guarding who. Kristaps Porzingis is guarding P.J. Washington and Jayson Tatum is guarding Lively.
The Celtics do this so that the Mavericks can't run 1-5 pick-and-roll with Irving and Lively. If they try it, the Celtics will just switch and put a premium wing defender (Tatum) on Irving, and Holiday will switch onto Lively, who doesn't have the post moves to punish him.
But instead, by running the 1-4 with Washington, now Irving gets to run pick-and-roll against a more traditional drop concept with Porzingis.
And even though the Celtics force a miss, Tatum helps over a step and the only person to crash down is Derrick White.
You're going to see this a lot. The easiest way to neutralize the 1-5 pick-and-roll with Doncic or Irving is to put Tatum on Lively or Daniel Gafford. But the result is that Tatum — a terrific wing rebounder — is going to be facing size mismatches, even if he doesn't help over as he does here.
The Celtics' switching defense makes things tough and clogs up actions, but a good counter is using Gafford and Lively to crash the glass against this coverage.
Picks: Lively Over 7.0 Rebounds Per Game | Tatum Under 9.5 Rebounds Per Game
ADVANTAGE: Boston Can Win Shootouts
The Mavericks have all this firepower with Doncic and Irving, along with shooters. But since their trades and the way the team redefined itself for this playoff run, Dallas is much more of a defensive team.
It beat the Wolves with superior offense, but that's against a low-floor scoring team like Minnesota. The Mavs are 8-0 in over games and 4-4 in under games, but so much of that is based on their low offensive floor early in the playoffs with an injured Doncic.
The Mavericks don't want a shootout, run-and-gun game with Boston; Boston plays five out and has more offensive weapons.
The Mavericks want more of a grind-it-out game so that it's close in clutch time. That's when Doncic and Irving can outperform a Celtics team that's had its issues when things get tight.
Picks: SGP — Celtics & the Over or Mavs & the Under Depending on How You Lean
DISADVANTAGE: Dallas Struggles Defensively in Post
The Mavericks are built to defend the paint, but they're built to do so by defending outside-in, not inside out.
Ivica Zubac even had success early in the Clippers series by just going after Gafford.
The Thunder played five out, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander dominated in that series in the post. The Wolves weren't equipped for it. It was harder to create space for post-ups with two bigs clogging the lane, and Rudy Gobert has never been a strong post finisher.
The Celtics, on the other hand, were a heavy post-up team. They finished the season with the second-most post-ups and the second-best efficiency on those post-ups.
Boston hasn't been as good in the playoffs, but a big part of that is the absence of Porzingis and its matchups with Miami and Cleveland.
Dallas was the eighth-worst team this season defending the post (though I don't have access to the numbers just after the trades) and is the second-worst in the playoffs.
This is only a handful of possessions per game, but it's a button the Celtics can push.
If Porzingis is healthy, he can absolutely tear up the Mavericks with this. The Mavericks' worst post-up defender is Derrick Jones Jr., followed by Josh Green. Those two should see a great deal of time on Tatum, which could improve Tatum's MVP odds slightly just from a handful of more efficient opportunities.
ADVANTAGE: Holiday Roaming as Playmaker
Holiday had 13 assists in the two games against Dallas in the regular season. There will be better discipline from Dallas this time around, though.
But Dallas will also let Holiday roam a bit to try to corral the Jays. The Mavericks try and send a second man at Tatum here and leave Holiday open on the short roll. Keeping him involved and active and not just a corner shooter neutralizes the ability of the Mavericks to "hide" Doncic or Irving on him.
Holiday is also a great transition passer, and the Mavericks' transition defense is lacking, especially when it comes to Luka.
Holiday will have chances to create against Dallas' defense.
