The NBA Finals are here, and we have a showdown between the Dallas Mavericks and the Boston Celtics.
While the Celtics have been tremendous this season, the Mavericks surged after making some key trades prior to the deadline to surround Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving with complementary role players.
This is an exciting series for a number of reasons with plenty of exploitable angles.
Let's dive into some of our favorite series-long markets and angles to attack, including our NBA Finals player props forecast.
Luka Doncic
Luka is the best player in the series, and he's ascended to a level where people have begun to discuss him as the best player in the world.
While I think that's still Nikola Jokic's title, we can appreciate the greatness that Luka has displayed throughout these playoffs.
He's leading the playoffs in points, rebounds and assists with 28.8 points, 9.6 rebounds and 8.8 assists per game. He's carried this Mavericks team at times while burying soul crushing shots to clinch both games and series.
So, how do we bet the best player in this series?
Luka is -175 at BetMGM to lead the series in points. He should secure this even at a minus number. While both Tatum (26.0 PPG) and Brown (25.0 PPG) have some ceiling capabilities, Boston is so well rounded that it's more likely to cannibalize each other's usage.
Kyrie (22.8 PPG) is a distant option here as well.
The others may be better options on an individual-game basis if you so choose.
Our colleague, Brandon Anderson, is on Irving's series under 24.1 points per game (-110, DraftKings). I'll tail him there.
Like I said before, Luka is leading the playoffs in PRA and if I could bet him to do that in the Finals, I would.
There are some plays that are juiced but should absolutely hit, as Luka's floor is so high.
- Luka to Record 5+ Rebounds in Every Game (-500, bet365)
- Luka to Record 5+ Assists in Every Game (-500, bet365).
Luka has 6+ rebounds in every playoff game this year and 5+ in 94% of his games this season. Luka has 5+ assists in every playoff game and in 95% of games this season. -500 has implied odds of 83.33% and given the outrageously high floor Luka has, these both should hit in this series.
If I had to pick one, I would pick the rebounds, though, and I'll lock that in.
Kyrie Irving
I just mentioned the Kyrie under from Brandon, which I'm tailing. While Kyrie can try to hunt Jayson Tatum like Andrew Nembhard did last round, the scoring fluctuations are enough for me to grab the under.
But I do think there's an angle to back Kyrie in this series: Kyrie to record 4+ assists in every game (+500, ESPN BET). While these "in every game" bets can be concerning due to blowouts or just variance, his floor is high at these odds.
During the playoffs, Irving has recorded 4+ in 14-of-17 games and the misses are all at three. The +500 odds are 16.67% implied and given that the fewest minutes he's played in the playoffs are 35, the floor is high.
He failed to record four in both games against Boston this season; however, it's still worth a sprinkle.
Jayson Tatum
Tatum has been solid and has put forward well-rounded efforts throughout the playoffs. One of the notable trends for Tatum in the playoffs is he consistently sees a spike to his rebounds.
The last two years, he's averaged 10.5 and 10.4 rebounds per game compared to 8.8 and 8.1 during the regular season.
There are a few ways to bet Tatum's rebounding.
He's the consensus favorite to lead the series in rebounding; however, I prefer to back him via a rebound average bet.
Currently, DraftKings has listed Tatum to average over 9.9 rebounds per game (-115), but the under series specials Jayson Tatum to average 10+ rebounds in the NBA Finals (+100) is the play. That's a 15 cent difference for a 0.1 difference. If Tatum averages 9.9, it's a push, but both bets need 10+ to cash because both bets have the same underwriting of "statistics rounded to the nearest 0.1."
I prefer this bet because it doesn't introduce the variance.
You can take this further up, too. Tatum to record a double-double in every game of the Finals (+1600, BetMGM) is worth a play.
Tatum has 11 double-doubles in 14 playoff games this season, including one triple-double. The double-double is a nice way to insulate yourself, too, because of those assists, and there's a chance he saves the day with a double-double by the way of assists.
Speaking of assists, his floor has been very high during the playoffs. He has five or more assists in 11-of-14 games this postseason and the misses are at four, three and three.
Currently, Tatum to record 5+ assists in every game is +650 at ESPN BET. Tatum is averaging 5.9 assists on 9.8 potentials during the playoffs. This is also worth a small play.
Finally, Tatum is priced too long to lead the series in 3s (+850, FanDuel). Tatum is third in 3-point attempts per game between all the Mavericks and Celtics in the playoffs (7.1), but he's shooting just 29% from deep, despite shooting 37.6% from long range during the regular season.
Dallas made a concerted effort against the Timberwolves to pack the paint and limit looks at the rim.
For Boston, this isn't a problem because it takes 3s at the highest rate in the playoffs. Tatum is a streaky shooter, and when he was in the Finals against the Warriors, he ran hot, making 3.3 3s on 7.3 attempts (45.5%).
Tatum will get his shots up, and at this price, I'm willing to add him to a 3s leader position.
Kristaps Porzingis
One of the players that we need to keep an eye out for is Kristaps Porzingis. Porzingis has missed the last five weeks with a calf injury and didn't get ramped up at all in real game action prior to the NBA Finals.
Porzingis is incredibly important to this series for a number of different reasons — his contributions on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball will be needed for Boston to truly excel during these Finals.
Porzingis essentially does all of the things the Celtics have been leaning on Al Horford to do, but he's faster, younger and a bit more versatile at this stage of his career.
The biggest question mark remains his health. In a press conference on Tuesday, Porzingis gave some interesting answers when prodded about his health.
In an article by ESPN's Tim Bontemps: "Good question," he said with a wry smile to the question of whether he's currently 100 percent. "I don't know. We'll see. Done a lot of work up until this point. Done everything needed to get back into playing shape. We'll see."
Later, when asked if he's running pain-free, he sat for a while, seemingly deciding what to say, before eventually just saying, "Yes."
The Celtics have continued to keep things ambiguous about Porzingis' status; however, it does seem as if he's ready to play — the question is now how much and will he be limited at all.
One of the ways I'm betting Porzingis is his 3s. His ability to stretch the floor is more consistent than Horford's and he can exploit the Dallas' bigs. When these teams played back in March, Porzingis immediately played Daniel Gafford off the court. He made three 3s for 13 first-quarter points. He was excellent to start the game and stressed the Mavericks' defense.
We've seen this Dallas defense get torched by strong shooting bigs, whether it was Naz Reid or Karl-Anthony Towns. Porzingis will get those looks in an exploitable matchup.
On the season, Porzingis averaged 1.9 3s per game with four against the Mavericks in that March contest. While his minutes may be a bit variable, his series 3s prop is too low.
Normally, 3s are highly variable and they're more difficult to cap; however, here, because of the injury, I prefer to grab the 3s for the series. He can get hot in any game and easily make up extra ground if his minutes increase throughout the series.
DraftKings has over 1.5 3s per game (-110), and it's my favorite angle during this series. Additionally, their terms indicate that the player must play in 3+ games, so if Porzingis reaggravated this immediately in Game 1, we can get a void.
In Game 1, I'll target Porzingis to exceed 1.5 3s (-130), but I'll also play the 3s leader for Game 1 specifically (+1800, FanDuel). I want to capitalize on the Dallas mismatch early.
I don't mind over 3.5 first-quarter points either, but I'd actually prefer to just jump to 5+ (+140, bet365) and 7+ (+320, bet365).
This is essentially a bet on health, and I'd rather take a bigger payout while risking less.
Derrick White
Derrick White has, in many ways, been the most valuable Celtics player in the playoffs. He's contributed in so many different ways with his 3-point shooting and his defense.
I think he likely spends time on Irving as a primary defender, as opposed to a help defender, where he's been so valuable providing steals and blocks.
He's averaged 2.1 stocks per game during the playoffs; however, he had eight in the most recent game, and if you remove that outlier, his average drops to 1.65 stocks per game.
If he's spending more direct time on Irving, this is a significantly tougher matchup than in any of the previous series' based on Kyrie's handle and decision-making skills.
I'd lean towards some unders on his steals and blocks.
White is also underpriced to lead the series in 3s. He's listed at +500 at bet365. White is averaging 3.4 3s per game on 8.4 attempts, which is tied with Luka for the most in this series.
While White takes about one fewer 3 per game when playing alongside Porzingis, his efficiency remains elite, as he shot nearly 40% from deep during the regular season and is over 40 (40.7%) during these playoffs.
I'll also grab White over 2.7 3s per game (-110, DraftKings) and to average three 3s in the Finals (+155, DraftKings). He averaged 2.7 during the regular season on 6.8 attempts, compared to 3.4 on 8.4 attempts during the playoffs.
While I'll still consider Porzingis' potential impact, this line is still low.
NBA Finals Bets
- 1 Unit — Doncic Series Scoring Leader (-175, BetMGM)
- 1 Unit — Irving Under 24.1 PPG (-110, DraftKings) via Brandon Anderson
- 1 Unit — Doncic to Record 5+ Rebounds in Every Game (-500, bet365)
- 0.25 Units — Irving Over 3.5 Assists in Every Game (+500, ESPN BET)
- 1 Unit — Tatum to Average 10+ Rebounds in NBA Finals (+100, DraftKings Series Specials)
- 0.1 Units — Tatum to Record Double-Double in Every Game of Finals (+1600, BetMGM)
- 0.1 Units — Tatum to Record 5+ Assists in Every Game (+650, ESPN BET)
- 0.25 Units — Tatum Series 3s Leader (+850, FanDuel)
- 1.5 Units — Porzingis Over 1.5 3s Per Game (-120, DraftKings)
- 1 Unit — White Series 3s Leader (+500, bet365)
- 1 Unit — White Over 2.7 3s Per Game (-110, DraftKings)
- 0.25 Units — White to Average 3 3s in Finals (+155, DraftKings)
