The 2024 NBA Finals are here, with storylines abound.
Luka Dončić is making his case as the best player in the basketball world and the next face of the NBA, and Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown will attempt to crack through to finally get that elusive ring.
Kyrie Irving and Kristaps Porziņģis are stories all their own, each playing their former teams. Both were once the star of their own teams but they're secondary stars now.
But in this series, Irving and Porziņģis may end up the biggest X-factors for their respective teams, and their play could swing the NBA championship.
Celtics X-factor: Kristaps Porzingis
Boston will expect at least 50 points a game from Tatum and Brown, and Dallas doesn't have great defensive options on the wing, so both Jays should get theirs. Derrick White and Jrue Holiday are probably secondary, even tertiary, options on offense but key players defensively.
But, while the Celtics survived without Porziņģis the last two rounds, the Latvian big man is absolutely vital to what Boston will do on both ends of the court against Dallas.
Al Horford is a potential Hall of Famer, but this could be a difficult series for the veteran. He'll need to make the 3s Dallas will no doubt dare him to take, and he could be in big trouble defensively.
Horford doesn't offer much rim protection at this point, and he just isn't able to defend in space anymore like he used to. That makes him a liability switching onto Dončić, and it could be an issue getting back to protect the rim from those Dončić lobs to Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II too.
Porziņģis is Boston's X-Factor this series, because the Celtics need him to do exactly those things Horford lacks at this stage of his career.
The Celtics' defense has slipped back to the pack over the past month without Porziņģis and has been especially vulnerable in the paint, with its Defensive EFG rising after ranking near the top of the league in 2-point defense all season. Porziņģis is the bigger, better rim protector, and he is better suited to defend more space and to hang with those young, spry Dallas bigs on lobs.
Dallas ranked fourth in 2-point percentage in the regular season and carved up an elite Minnesota defense at times. If Porziņģis is limited or not the same defensively, Boston's defense could end up the weakest unit of the four in the Finals.
But Porziņģis may be just as important offensively, because of the versatility he adds to this attack.
Boston shoots fewer 2s than any team in the league, and the Celtics' offense can go ice cold when the jump shots aren't falling. The offense can also stagnate badly in the clutch.
Porziņģis has been a new option for Boston's offense this season, something the Celtics simply didn't have before — a big that can be more than just a play finisher. He's not posting up as often as he once did but can go to that when things stall out and Boston needs a bucket, especially with a size mismatch. That could be a huge swing factor in a close game late.
Before it even gets there, Porziņģis makes Boston's offense much more dynamic with his confident 3-point stroke that's more reliable than Horford's, and his presence helps Boston play five out. That pulls those Dallas bigs away from the rim where they've been so incredible protecting the paint, leaving more room for Porziņģis' teammates to operate too.
Horford just doesn't have that gravity anymore, nor the ability to get from the arc to the rim as a play finisher, like Porziņģis.
The Celtics can win without Porziņģis — they went 8-1 without him the last two rounds — but they're a far more dangerous team when he's on the court, and Dallas is by far Boston's toughest foe this postseason. If Porziņģis is limited or out, this series becomes much closer to a coin flip. With Porziņģis playing like his usual self, Boston is a deserving huge favorite. That's how important he is, especially with the lack of depth.
I like Porzingis to go over 15.4 PPG for the series (-110, DraftKings).
He scored at least 11 points in 49 of 50 games with 25+ minutes played this season, setting a very high floor, and this number is too deflated, even accounting for a possible minutes reduction off his injury. Porziņģis averaged at least 15.7 PPG over 50 of his 52 six-game spans this season, with the only two misses, both including a six-minute, two-point game. If he plays even 25 MPG, he should hit this.
I'm also inclined to sprinkle a small bet on Porziņģis to win Finals MVP at +6000 (BetRivers).
Playoff MVPs overwhelmingly go to the winning team's top scorer, and Porziņģis probably won't lead the team in scoring. But Tatum and Brown have split the scoring without a huge number, around 23-to-27 PPG. If Porziņģis can get to around 20 like he did in the regular season, he'll be in a plurality mix for the award, and that's where the narrative can take over.
A heroic return from injury as the X-factor doing exactly what Boston needs on both ends of the court, and doing it against his old team that dumped him for Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans? The narrative practically writes itself.
If Kristaps Porziņģis is this important a Boston X-factor at both ends of the court and helps lead the Celtics to victory, he should be much shorter than 60-to-1 to win Finals MVP.
Mavericks X-factor: Kyrie Irving
Obviously, Dallas' series hinges on Luka Dončić. If he's anything less than fantastic and by far the best player in the series, the Mavs have very little chance to compete.
Who will defend Dončić? That remains to be seen. Brown could be the primary defender. Holiday and White will get their chances. Tatum could be called upon for stretches.
Boston's big will defend the opposing center, and then those four good defenders will focus their attention on Dončić and Irving, hoping to force guys like Derrick Jones Jr. and P.J. Washington to beat them.
But for as much attention as Dončić will get — and find plenty of success anyway, no doubt — no team in the league has as many difficult defenders to throw at Irving, even after giving Dončić his due attention. And that's why Irving could be an X-factor for Dallas, for better and for worse.
The story of the NBA Playoffs so far has been star players losing even as the best player in the series. You can make a real case that Tyrese Haliburton, Nikola Jokić, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Donovan Mitchell, Joel Embiid, Damian Lillard, Paolo Banchero and James Harden were all the best player in a series they lost. If you ignore the first-round series for the NBA's top four teams (Boston and the West 1-to-3 seeds), that's eight of 10 series where the best player lost the series anyway.
Boston can win the NBA Finals even if Luka Dončić is the best player on the court — but the Celtics cannot afford to let Kyrie Irving play great too.
Luckily for the Celtics, they look better equipped to defend Irving than any team in the league, potentially turning Dallas back into just the Luka show and setting up yet another team-beats-individual-star scenario.
Among players whom Irving has played at least 10 times in his career, his single most difficult opponent has been White. Irving is 2-12 straight up against White in his career, and he's not much better against Holiday at 8-16 (his eighth-toughest opponent).
Boston acquired White in February 2022, and the Celtics have faced Irving 10 times since, including the playoffs. Irving is 0-10 SU in those games, with his scoring dropping to 20.7 PPG on 42% from the field. Kyrie sports a miserable 0.1 Box Plus-Minus in those 10 games, basically a replacement-level starter, and far from the star we know him to be.
Irving has at least two turnovers in eight of those 10 games, and he topped out at 24 points in all but one 39-point outburst. He scored 20 or less in seven of the games.
That matches what we've seen from Irving the last two rounds too, against two other opponents with difficult guard defenders.
In round one against a soft Clippers backcourt, Irving scored 26.5 PPG on 51/45/85 shooting splits and was Dallas' best player. In two rounds since, he's dropped to 20.8 PPG and 0.3 BPM, very similar to his recent performance against Boston, with eight of the 11 games at 22 points or fewer.
Kyrie Irving is a superstar, and he can drop 30 any night if the shot is falling and he slithers to the rim all night. He can absolutely just out-talent all this analysis and be a positive X-factor for Dallas.
I'm going the other way and betting Irving to go under 24.1 PPG for the series (DraftKings).
This just does not seem like a series where Irving is going to consistently put up big scoring numbers. And sure, he can always drop 30 or 35, even 15 or 20 in a quarter, but I'm betting on the numbers evening out in our favor over a long series.
Irving will have his hands full against White and Holiday, sometimes even both of them since Boston can still put Tatum and Brown's attention on Dončić. That could leave some assist opportunities for Kyrie if his teammates hit shots, but that does us no harm on this bet.
This might be my favorite bet of the entire Finals.
I was honestly hoping we'd get something in the 22-range, and would have hit that under hard, so 24.1 is a blessing. Even getting to 20 PPG could be tough if the shots aren't falling against this defense.
If you're high on Tatum too, you can bet Tatum to outscore Irving every game of the Finals at +1200 (Caesars) as an escalator. Tatum has at least 23 points in eight straight, and remember, Kyrie is at 22 or below in eight of the last 11.
I don't like this one as much because Irving always seems to get at least one hot game, but it's probably a short series in the bet's favor if Tatum really does outscore Irving each time out.
Kyrie Irving and Kristaps Porziņģis are the juicy narrative storylines heading into the 2024 NBA Finals, but they just might end up the most important X-factor stories on the court too when all is said and done.
