Boston owns a commanding 2-0 series lead over Dallas in the NBA Finals – only five teams in NBA history have overcome this deficit in the Finals. Celtics center Kristaps Porziņģis suffered a leg injury in the third quarter of Game 2 though, which could be a significant boost to Dallas’ chances. Can the Mavericks protect home court and travel back to Boston with the series tied?
Check out my two-leg same-game parlay (SGP) for Game 3 of the NBA Finals between the Celtics and Mavericks on Wednesday, June 12.
NBA Finals Same Game Parlay: Celtics vs Mavericks Game 3 SGP
- Jayson Tatum 6+ Assists (-140)
- Jrue Holiday Over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists (-136)
Parlay Odds: +190 (FanDuel)
Jayson Tatum 6+ Assists (-140)
I am once again on the Jayson Tatum assists train. He is torching Dallas off-the-dribble and penetrating the paint with ease, especially when Boston forces a Luka Dončić switch. The Mavericks have shown their commitment to sending help and deterring rim attempts, which encourages Tatum to embrace kick-outs. He’s happy to oblige, and the All-NBA First Team forward is mostly making the correct reads to the arc. Because Boston is riddled with efficient 3-point shooters, it allows Tatum to pass to any area of the court and still find a shooter.
Overall, he has recorded five and 12 assists through two games. At 13.5 potential assists per game, it’s clear that Tatum's playmaking is working wonders for Boston – it’s simply a matter of whether his teammates knock down their shots. Given the Celtics’ superb offense, I like their chances.
Jrue Holiday Over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists (-136)
The former champion is all over the place on the court. Jrue Holiday leads the series with 16.5 rebound chances per game, and it’s not a fluke. Dallas’ guards cannot handle his aggression and subsequently struggle to box him out. Holiday is flying in for boards, and Porziņģis’ injury only helps him find more rebound chances.
Meanwhile, Holiday is averaging 9.5 potential assists per game, which is the fourth-best mark. His pick-and-roll passing and quick decisions off the catch are exploiting Dallas’ late rotations or miscommunications. He should continue to see plenty of playmaking touches in Game 3.
Holiday has notched 13 and 14 RAs in the first two games, and I expect him to clear the 10.5 line once again here.
NBA Finals Game 3 SGP (+190): Jayson Tatum 6+ Assists, Jrue Holiday Over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists
These two legs make a +190 same-game parlay on FanDuel, which has a 34.5% implied probability. In other words, that’s the hit-rate that this parlay needs for the bet to theoretically be profitable in the long-run.
