Here’s everything you need to know about Mavericks vs Celtics on Thursday, June 6 – our expert prediction and betting picks for Thursday’s game.
The Boston Celtics strolled their way through the Eastern Conference, and they now get back starting center Kristaps Porzingis from a calf injury. On the other side, the Dallas Mavericks emerged from a brutal Western Conference and enter the NBA Finals firing on all cylinders.
Check out my three-leg same game parlay for Game 1 of this matchup.
In their early March matchup, Porzingis posed plenty of issues for the new-look Dallas defense. He sank 4-of-8 triples and took advantage of Daniel Gafford’s inability to prevent stretch-fives from getting their shot off.
The Mavericks have faced two big men with consistent outside shooting volume this postseason. Chet Holmgren averaged 4.5 3pt attempts per game, while Karl-Anthony Towns wound up at 6.6 attempts per game. Both marks were above their respective season average, and Porzingis should replicate this trend throughout the series.
It’s possible that shooting rust torpedoes his outing, but he’s talented enough to avoid this trap and can come back like he never left.
Because Boston leads the NBA in 3-point attempt rate and features two stretch-fives, they do not surrender a plethora of tight contests to opposing big men. As a result, the Celtics gave up the fewest blocks per game to opposing centers this regular season.
It’s already a poor matchup, and Gafford may also have to fear a slight minutes dip. Rookie Dereck Lively’s superior mobility makes him better suited to defend Boston’s offensive versatility. It would hardly be surprising if head coach Jason Kidd turns towards the rookie center over the veteran, especially in crunch time.
Gafford has reached two blocks in 6-of-17 games this playoffs, or 35% of the time.
Jones Jr. is shooting 39.6% on 3.1 attempts per game from deep this postseason. Although regression will eventually drag him closer to his 34.3% regular season mark, Jones Jr. is definitely a capable-enough shooter.
When Boston decides to blitz and rotate, Jones Jr. will be the guy left relatively open because he is the least dangerous option. I expect the Celtics to dare him to shoot, and they will live with the results.
Finally, his minutes are also heavily insulated because Dallas desperately needs his excellent defense against wings Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. With a likely minimum of 30 minutes, he will have plenty of possessions to knock down a single 3-point shot.
When these three legs are combined on DraftKings, they form a +335 same-game parlay. Those odds have a 22.9% implied probability. In other words, the parlay needs to theoretically cash at least 23% of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value and subsequently be profitable in the long-run.
