NBA player props have treated us well during the playoffs, and there are a few series-long props that stick out to me in the NBA Finals.
Doncic to Outscore Tatum in Every Game (+1500)
.25 Units
Luka Doncic really found his form in the last series, outscoring Anthony Edwards in four of the five games. None of the Celtics' defensive options will be particularly good at stopping Doncic in this series.
Jayson Tatum will be guarded by Derrick Jones Jr. Tatum relies on getting to the rim to score, and he hasn't been shooting particularly well from 3.
DraftKings has odds for Luka to outscore Tatum in Game 1, and based on those odds, it's fair for this to be at +1216. That makes this positive EV, and it lines up with what we expect here.
Porzingis Most Total 3s in Series (+2000)
.25 Units
Dallas' base defensive strategy in every series has been to let the other team's center shoot, so that its center can stay in the paint.
Kristaps Porzingis is coming back from injury, and the Mavericks will dare him to beat them from downtown.
Derrick White has bombed away in the playoffs, and Luka will always have volume, but there's a chance Porzingis ends up hoisting the most 3-pointers.
In that scenario, this is a great bet.
Three Tatum Bets
In the past two seasons, Tatum has upped his rebounding when the playoffs come along. Meanwhile, in 2022, he actually averaged fewer.
So, what changed?
Since Joe Mazzulla took over as coach, the Celtics are using Tatum less as the primary defender on the other team's best player and more as a rover. My best guess as to the reasoning is it allows him to have more energy on offense, and also they have other great defenders on their team.
He's also now playing almost exclusively power forward when he used to play more small forward.
With Porzingis coming back, it sends the Celtics' second-best rebounder (Al Horford) to the bench, and puts Porzingis out there more. During the regular season, Tatum averaged 1.3 more rebounds per game with Porzingis in the lineup than without.
I view these two props — leading the series in rebounds and averaging 10+ rebounds per game — as being almost equivalent. If the +100 is gone, I'd rather put more on the -105 or -110 for him to be the leading rebounder.
Tatum's increased rebounding has led to him having a double-double in 11 out of 14 games so far this postseason.
Using his odds for Game 1, the double-double every-game prop would be negative EV, but I think that's also underrating his odds for a double-double, especially considering his averages for the entire playoffs.
If you use the 11-of-14 number, and take into account his increased role, this is positive EV, even with the potential for a long series.
I'll also be looking at Tatum's rebounding numbers early in the series and the line for a double-double for Game 1.
Jayson Tatum Picks
- Tatum to Lead Series in Rebounds (-105 @ BetMGM, .25u, Bet Down to -120)
- Tatum to Average 10+ Rebounds Per Game (+100 @ DraftKings, .3u)
- Tatum to Record a Double-Double in Every Game (+1500 @ FanDuel, .15u)
Two Washington Bets
P.J. Washington has been really, really good in the playoffs for Dallas. He's shooting way better from the corners and is just hitting more shots overall.
When these two teams met up this season, he had 17 points and shot 3-of-9 from 3. In fact, over the course of his career, P.J. has scored 14+ and hit two-plus 3s in his last eight games against the Celtics.
Also, every time he's played at least 28 minutes, he's hit both of these markers.
Power forwards and centers have done well against the Celtics in these playoffs, and my guess is that there will be plenty of times when he's left wide open so that Boston can cover Luka.
Porzingis will likely start on either Jones or Washington, which means that one of the two will get extra opportunities to score.
I really, really wanted to bet Washington to score 10+ in every game in this series at +350 on BetMGM, but the math is just terrible. If you bet him to score 10+ in Game 1 at FanDuel at -225 and rolled the money over, you'd already be getting better odds by Game 4 than +350.
I think he does it, but the odds aren't good enough.
Instead, I'm targeting these two props. He's averaged over 11.5 points in the last two series, and he killed it against OKC, which is pretty similar defensively to the Celtics.
The two-plus 3s prop is slightly negative versus the Game 1 lines, but his track record says its worth it for a long shot — and if he hits 3s like he did against OKC, the line will shift positive as the series goes on.
The lines for Game 1 for two-plus 3s and 10+ points are also similar, but the series-long props have wildly different odds.
P.J. Washington Picks
- Washington Over 11.5 Points Per Game (+100 @ FanDuel, .5u)
- Washington 2+ 3s in Every Game (+1000 @ FanDuel/BetMGM, .25u)
Brown to Outscore Irving (+125)
.4 Units (Bet to +120)
You can read Brandon Anderson's analysis here on X-factors, which I used for this bet.
It's also positive based on the lines across books for Game 1.
Every C's Starter to Record 1+ Made 3s in Every Game (+2000)
.15 Units (Bet Down to +1900)
First, the math: Based on the odds for Game 1, this is positive EV, as that estimates it has about a 6% chance of happening.
It would be negative based on season-long stats, but starters play more in the playoffs and these games should be close.
Second, the analysis: Boston obviously shoots a ton of 3s, but Dallas has also given up a fair amount.
Porzingis also makes this much better, and I'm high on his 3-point potential (see above).
Finally, this bet is fun. In each game, it'll make each 3 a little more exciting. It's not the highest value bet, but in terms of entertainment, it's going to be right up there.
