The Boston Celtics held serve on their home court in the first two games of the NBA Finals. As the venue shifts to the American Airlines Center, the Dallas Mavericks are staring at an 0-2 deficit in the series entering Game 3.
Teams in the spot the Mavericks are currently in rarely come back to win the series. In a best-of-seven series, the team trailing 0-2 has come back to win the series just 8% of the time (322-28) and NBA Finals teams trailing 0-2 win 14% of the time (31-5).
But history says Game 3 is the key spot for a team like the Mavericks. So how have teams historically performed in this spot? We took a dive into data from Bet Labs to find out.
The most profitable bet to make on a home team trailing 0-2 in a series is the first-half spread in Game 3. Home teams are 93-52-2 against the first-half spread in Game 3 after losing the first two games of any playoff series. In the NBA Finals, those teams are 6-3 against the first-half spread.
Teams tend to play better at home in the playoffs and make adjustments after seeing the same team twice. There's also the desperation factor at play. As daunting as a 0-2 hole can be, no team has ever come back from a 0-3 deficit in the NBA playoffs. Teams at this stage understand that and tend to put all their energy into winning the first half. (This excludes the 2020 Finals because it was on a neutral court, but the Heat also covered the first half of Game 3 in that series.)
Brandon Anderson expounded on this trend Sunday night after Game 2:
Desperate teams playing with the season on the line and a home crowd boost continue to be an excellent formula.
Teams coming home for Game 3 off a road loss by more than five are also 110-64-6 ATS in just the first half (63%), and that increases to 19-6 in the Conference Finals or later (76%). That's another trend in the Mavs' favor, and it's agnostic of any Game 1 result.
Winning the first half is great, but winning the game is more important. Sustaining 48 minutes of desperation isn't easy and the NBA Finals is very often a matchup of two elite teams.
According to our Bet Labs database, home teams down 0-2 are 6-3 straight up (SU) in Game 3. Five of the teams that covered the first half of Game 3 in our database (2006 Heat, 2008 Lakers, 2009 Magic, 2016 Cavaliers, 2021 Bucks) won the game outright.
However, only two of those teams actually covered the spread and overall, teams in this situation are just 3-6 against the spread (ATS) dating back to 2005.
What This Means for Celtics vs Mavericks Game 3
Historical trends can tell us a lot but current season trends give much more insight about these two teams.
The Mavericks are one of the worst first-half teams in the NBA. In the regular season and playoffs, the Mavericks are 45-51-5 straight up in the first half. Only four teams were worse and three of those four teams were in the lottery. The Mavs were 50-51 ATS in the first half, closer to the middle of the pack but still a losing bet over the season.
The contrast with the Celtics is stark. The Celtics are 80-16-2 straight up in the first half, including 13-1-2 in the playoffs. They are 64-34 ATS in the first half of the regular season and playoffs.
Oddsmakers aren't blind to these trends and have made adjustments in recent years to account for the discrepancy between the first-half spread and the full-game spread. The Mavericks are 2.5-point favorites for Game 3 at nearly every book, according to Action Network's betting data.
At some of those books, the Mavs are also 2.5-point favorites in the first half, eliminating the slight edge bettors would typically get for taking the first-half spread. Some books are offering a juiced -1.5 for the first half, but don't expect to get a favorable line on Dallas.
