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NBA First Basket Prop Pick: Luka Doncic, Dwight Powell
| Odds | Doncic (+460) | Powell (+1600) |
| Time | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| Book | FanDuel |
The Oklahoma City Thunder make the short trip to Dallas to take on the Mavericks who are on the second leg of a back-to-back Monday night. Alexsej Pokusevski (23% opening-tip win rate) will likely be jumping at center against Dwight Powell (42% win rate).
Powell has jumped against Pokusevski just once before, and Powell won that tip. This is one of the few spots I feel confident that Dallas can win the tip-off.
Dallas has scored first 46% of the time this season. The Thunder have significantly struggled to win any opening tips, and as a result, have scored first only 38% of the time.
Luka Doncic has taken the first shot most often (nine games this season) for the Mavericks. More recently, Tim Hardaway Jr. has moved into the starting lineup and has taken the first or second shot for Dallas in the last seven games. Dwight Powell has been active as well, scoring first in 16% of this starts.
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Oklahoma City has given up the first opposing field goal this season to the center or power forward position in 50% of its games. The Thunder defend the small forward position well on opening possessions as the opposing small forward has scored first in just 8% of games this season.
The Mavericks and Thunder played early this season, and Dorian Finney-Smith took the first shot and scored first with a 3-pointer. I'm going with their star and their center tonight though.
With Hardaway's recent surge, Doncic's odds are a bit higher than usual creating some value for tonight. I think Hardaway has a tougher matchup in the small forward spot today.
The Pick: Luka Doncic (+460, 0.75 units, play down to +350) | Dwight Powell (+1600 0.5 units, play down to +1200)
Thunder vs. Mavericks First Basket Prop Data
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