NBA First Basket will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day here, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.
NBA First Basket Prop Pick: Dejounte Murray, Trae Young
| Odds | Murray (+750) | Young (+700) |
| Time | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| Book | FanDuel |
The Miami Heat will host the Atlanta Hawks Tuesday night to kick off the play-in games. Bam Adebayo (57% opening tip win rate) will face off against Clint Capela (44% win rate) for the opening tip-off. Capela won both tips this season against Adebayo, but Adebayo won all three tip-offs last season.
To further complicate the analysis, Atlanta scored first in all four games this season against Miami. John Collins, Onyeka Okongwu, Capela and Dejounte Murray all cashed first baskets against the Heat this season.
For the reasons listed above, I'll focus on the Hawks in this matchup. Trae Young, Murray and De'Andre Hunter combined to take the first team shot in 76% of games started this season.
The Heat gave up first team baskets to centers and shooting guards most often during the regular season. I like Murray to score the first basket tonight. I normally would pair him with someone with higher odds like Capela, but I don't love that matchup against Adebayo. Young is sitting at a nice price right now, so I'll add him to the play. I'm going to risk less than one unit as I think the tip-off is a fairly even matchup.
Pick: Dejounte Murray +750, risk 0.4 units (Play down to +550) |
Pick: Trae Young +700, risk 0.35 units (Play down to +500) |
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Hawks vs. Heat First Basket Prop Data
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