NBA First Basket will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day here, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.
NBA First Basket Prop Pick: Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray
| Odds | Jokic (+425) | Murray (+650) |
| Time | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| Book | DraftKings | FanDuel |
Game 1 of the NBA Finals kicks off Thursday night with the Denver Nuggets hosting the Miami Heat. Nikola Jokic (48% opening tip win rate) will jump against Bam Adebayo (55% win rate) for the opening tip-off. Over the past two seasons, these two centers have split opening tip-offs, each winning two of four.
In two games this season, each team scored the first basket once. Max Strus scored first for the Heat and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope scored first for the Nuggets.
Looking at recent trends over the past 20 games, Jokic has won the tip in 65% of games and the Nuggets have scored first in 45% of games. Meanwhile, Adebayo has won the tip in 45% of games and the Heat have scored first in 35% of games.
In the playoffs, Jamal Murray has taken Denver's first shot attempt in 40% of games and has scored the Nuggets first basket in 27% of games. Both of those numbers are significantly higher than Murray's regular-season performance.
For the Heat, Adebayo has taken the team's first shot attempt in 35% of games during the playoffs and has scored their first basket in 30% of games — both numbers similar to his regular-season performance.
I like the Nuggets to score first in this one. Jokic took Denver's first shot attempt in each of the regular-season matchups. I'll take Jokic and pair him with Murray given the trends noted above.
DraftKings Pick: Nikola Jokic 1st Field Goal (+425) | Risk 0.6 Units, Play to +360
FanDuel Pick: Jamal Murray 1st Basket (+650) | Risk 0.4 Units, Play to +500 |
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Heat vs. Nuggets First Basket Prop Data
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