NBA First Basket will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day here, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.
NBA First Basket Prop Pick: Nikola Jokic, Michael Porter Jr
| Odds | Jokic (+400) | Porter (+850) |
| Time | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| Book | DraftKings | BetMGM |
The Denver Nuggets host the Phoenix Suns in Game 1 of the Western Conference Semifinals on Saturday night. Nikola Jokic (49% opening tip win rate) will jump against Deandre Ayton (72% win rate) for the opening tip-off. Jokic has won all three opening tip-offs versus Ayton over the past two seasons. Although Ayton has traditionally been better at tip-offs, this might be a situation similar to what we saw in the first round where Jokic had an edge on Rudy Gobert, even though Gobert is traditionally better at tip-offs.
In the four games between these teams this season, the Nuggets scored first every time. Jokic, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon and Reggie Jackson each cashed first basket tickets.
While the Suns were much better at winning opening tip-offs during the season, the Nuggets actually scored first at a higher rate, scoring first in 56% of their games.
During Denver's first-round series against the Timberwolves, Michael Porter Jr. and Jokic combined to take 60% of Denver's early possession shot attempts (defined as the first three shot attempts).
I like Denver to make the first basket on Saturday night and I'll back Porter and Jokic in this matchup.
The Pick: Jokic 1st Field Goal (+500, DraftKings) Risking 0.65 Units — Play to +375 | Porter 1st Field Goal (+900, BetMGM) Risking 0.35 units — Play to +700
Suns vs. Nuggets First Basket Prop Data
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