NBA First Basket will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day here, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.
Dejounte Murray | Trae Young
| Prop | Murray (+900) | Young (+650) |
| Time | 7 p.m. ET |
| Book | FanDuel | DraftKings |
The Cleveland Cavaliers will host the Atlanta Hawks Monday night. Clint Capela (38% opening-tip win rate) will be jumping at center against Jarrett Allen (68% win rate). The two centers have faced off against each other five times in the past two seasons, with Capela surprisingly winning the tip in four of those five games.
Despite the lack of tip-offs won, the Hawks have been great at scoring first this season, as they have a 63% success rate. The Cavs have been less successful this season, scoring first in just 44% of games.
For Atlanta, Trae Young and Dejounte Murray have led the way in early possessions this season, with each player scoring the first team field goal four times. Murray has scored the first team field goal in three of the past five games for the Hawks while Young has scored the first team field goal in four of the past twelve games.
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The books clearly think the Cavs should win the tip in this one, but the data points us in a different direction. I think Cleveland's duo of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen will defend John Collins and Capela well on the opening possessions, so I am looking to play Young and Murray today.
Young typically has odds around +500 while Murray consistently has odds in the +600 to +700 range, so I think the current lines have some value — Murray's best odds are at FanDuel and Young's best odds are at DraftKings.
The Pick: Murray first basket (+900, 0.5 units; play down to +650) | Young first field goal (+650, 0.5u; play down to +500)
Hawks vs. Cavaliers First Basket Data
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