NBA First Basket will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day here, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.
Jaylen Brown | Al Horford
| Prop | Brown +390 | Horford +900 |
| Matchup | Thunder vs. Celtics |
| Time | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| Book | FanDuel |
The Boston Celtics host the Oklahoma City Thunder Monday evening at TD Garden in the featured matchup of the night on NBA TV. Al Horford (62% opening-tip win rate) will likely be taking on Aleksej Pokusevski (0% win rate) for the tip off. OKC rotates starting multiple guys at center, but they are all about equally as bad at winning opening tip-offs.
The Celtics led the league in scoring first last season, hitting the first basket 63% of the time. The Thunder ranked last in the league at 35%. Both teams have continued with similar trends this season.
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The Thunder have allowed the opposing center or shooting guard to score first 62% of the time this season. Both teams frequently change their lineups, so we don't really know who is starting at shooting guard for Boston tonight — it could be either Derrick White or Jaylen Brown.
I like Horford or Brown to score first tonight based on the weaknesses in the Thunder defense. Brown was the league leader at scoring first last season. Horford was a solid first scorer as well, although he hasn't been in the mix as much this season.
The combined odds are lower here than I normally like to play, but we rarely see an opportunity where one team has a 90% chance to win the tip-off, which makes the odds worth it tonight.
The Pick: Brown (+390, 0.7 units) — Play down to +320 | Horford (+900, 0.3u) — Play down to +700
Thunder vs. Celtics First Basket Data
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