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NBA First Basket Prop Picks: Bam Adebayo, Max Strus
| Odds | Adebayo (+500) / Max Strus (+850) |
| Time | 7 p.m. ET |
| Book | DraftKings |FanDuel |
The Miami Heat host the Chicago Bulls Friday night in a Play-In Tournament game for the final Eastern Conference playoff spot. Bam Adebayo (57% opening tip win rate) will square off against Nikola Vucevic (35% win rate) for the opening tip off.
Adebayo has won three of five tip-offs vs Vucevic over the past two seasons. I would expect Miami to get the first possession in this game. Despite the high tip win rate, Miami has only scored first in 41% of games this season. Chicago has scored first in 45% of games this season.
In the three games between the two teams this season, Jimmy Butler, Nikola Vucevic and Zach LaVine all cashed first baskets. Given all of the conflicting data above and the fact that neither team has an established a pattern against the other over the past two seasons, I'm not interested in wagering a full unit on this game.
Over the course of the season, Adebayo has scored the first team field goal in 33% of games started while Vucevic has scored the first team field goal in 37% of games started. One of these players is most likely to score first tonight.
I'll take Adebayo to score first given that I believe Miami will win the tip and pair him with Max Strus. The exact method stats for Strus are very skewed — 78% of his first team baskets are 3-point shots. In addition, 70% of all of his shot attempts this season were 3-point shots. Given the concentration of this data, I'll bet the exact method for Strus for more value.
Pick: Bam Adebayo First Field Goal +500 — play down to +400 (risk 0.5 units) — DraftKings
Pick: Strus Exact Method "3-pointer" +1400 — down to +1100 (0.2 units) |
Bulls vs. Heat First Basket Prop Data
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