It's that time of year when online sportsbooks release tantalizing odds on NBA futures. Because there is a level of unpredictability that's not present for player props or spreads, futures can absolutely ooze with value.
Check out my three NBA futures best bets below.
Orlando Magic Over 47.5 Wins (+100)
The Magic won 47 games last season and finished with the third-best defensive rating. Betting them to snatch one more victory at even money is wise considering their offseason moves, expected internal improvement and schedule.
Offseason acquisition Kentavious Caldwell-Pope arguably could have made the All-Defensive Second Team last season. He also shot 40.6% from 3-point range on decent volume. He’s one of the premier 3-and-D pieces in the league and will now create an extremely formidable point-of-attack defensive partnership with Jalen Suggs.
Rookie Tristan da Silva shined in the NBA Summer League. The 18th overall pick should be ready to contribute immediately as a backup forward who spaces the court, provides quick-decision passing and brings defensive versatility.
Orlando also re-signed impactful veterans Gary Harris and Goga Bitadze, while cutting loose ill-fitting pieces such as Markelle Fultz and Chuma Okeke.
Essentially, the Magic upgraded an already terrifying defense and added much-needed perimeter shooting in the process. An elite defense typically provides teams with a high floor for regular season wins, and Orlando’s unit certainly qualifies.
The Magic are also likely see improvement from their young core. Paolo Banchero appeared to take an All-NBA leap this postseason by averaging 27 points, eight rebounds and four assists per game. Franz Wagner’s slashing and playmaking are excellent, and a 3-point revival would push him into All-Star territory. Factor in development from promising young players like Suggs, Anthony Black, Jett Howard and Caleb Houstan, and the Magic may experience a significant internal boom.
Finally, the schedule favors the Magic. Orlando will play a combined 12 games against Atlanta, Charlotte and Washington. Add Detroit, Brooklyn, Chicago and Toronto to the mix, and that’s roughly 25% of the regular season being played against Eastern Conference bottom dwellers.
Oklahoma City Thunder Championship Winner (+750) & Western Conference Winner (+340)
Oklahoma City snatched the top seed, fielded the fourth-best defensive rating and held opponents to the second lowest half-court points per possession (trailing only Minnesota). That didn't stop Sam Presti from making franchise-altering moves though.
The Thunder first acquired Alex Caruso, who is arguably the best perimeter defender in the NBA. Whether it’s on or off-ball, Caruso utterly stifles opponents. The veteran also posted the top steal percentage last season and joins a Thunder squad that easily forced the largest turnover percentage. Facing Oklahoma City’s defense will be a scary proposition for careless, mistake-prone teams.
Next, Isaiah Hartenstein signed a massive three-year, $87 million deal during free agency. Per Basketball Index, Hartenstein was sixth among centers in rim defensive field goal percentage versus expected. He gives the Thunder a physical presence on the glass, which will be massive for a defense that surrendered the largest put-back frequency.
Plus, they experienced addition by subtraction with Josh Giddey’s poor defense out of the equation.
On the other end, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander cemented himself as a championship-caliber top option. His performance against Dallas was particularly impressive. Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 32.2 points and 7.3 assists per game, despite the Mavericks' defense doing everything in their power to stop him.
The remainder of the depth chart is riddled with complementary scorers who shoot from range, thrive as off-ball cutters and attack in transition. The offense could use a bit more self-creation, but it’s good enough to compete for a title.
Opponents won't have the option of marking Chet Holmgren with a forward and sagging their center off of Giddey to protect the paint. That’s huge for the Thunder’s drive-centric offense.
Presti eliminated weak links on both sides of the court. Oklahoma City is armed with the top defense in the league and a dynamic, efficient offense. The Celtics are rightfully the favorite, but the Thunder are right behind them.
Now is the best time to buy Thunder stock as their title winner and conference winner odds will be slashed as the season progresses. Given all of their picks, an earth-shattering trade deadline deal is also still on the table (Lauri Markkanen?), which would plummet their odds even further.
Jalen Johnson Most Improved Player (+2500)
The past 10 winners of the Most Improved Player Award provide insight into how voters approach the matter. Seven were in their third or fourth year, and no sophomore won. Therefore, we should be targeting candidates from the 2021 and 2022 drafts, while avoiding the 2023 draft.
Nine of the 10 averaged at least 20 points per game during their most improved season, and it was the first 20-point season for seven of them. Additionally, eight made their first All-Star Game.
To sum it up, here is a checklist to use as a quasi-guide:
- Drafted in 2021 or 2022
- Scores 20+ points per game (ideally for first time)
- Makes first All-Star Game
There are numerous names who could fit the bill, but Jalen Johnson stands out.
The 20th pick in the 2021 Draft is an explosive athlete with a high motor and lengthy frame. He relentlessly applies interior pressure through his rolling, cutting and transition hustle. Of the 108 forwards last year with 1000+ minutes, Johnson ranked 25th in rim attempts per 75 possessions (via Basketball Index).
However, there is far more depth to Johnson’s game than paint scoring. The Duke product converted a competent 35% of his catch-and-shoot 3s and dished out 3.4 high value assists per 75 possessions (28th out of 108 forwards). He also flashed an intriguing pull-up jumper and finished in the 53rd percentile for dribble-jumper points per shot.
Johnson also leads Atlanta's defensive charge.
His all-around growth is extremely encouraging. The 22-year-old set a career high with 16 points per game last season, and there are a few reasons believe Johnson can clear the 20-point barrier this year.
His off-ball production is massively enhanced next to Trae Young, who averaged the second most at-rim assists per 75 possessions across the NBA.
Dejounte Murray was sent to New Orleans this offseason. Murray is a ball-dominant guard who averaged 22.5 points and 18.8 field goal attempts per game for Atlanta last year. Plus, he notched the 10th-most touches per game in the league. That’s a ton of departed usage, and Johnson will likely pick up a large chunk. Atlanta also won’t mind growing pains as it retools the roster.
Finally, first overall pick Zaccharie Risacher is an off-ball wing who doesn't project to command large offensive involvement.
Based on all of the above factors, Johnson producing somewhere around 20 points, eight rebounds and five assists per game is a reasonable prediction after he was at 16/8/3 last year. The Eastern Conference is much weaker, so his All-Star case will also be far easier than a Western Conference candidate like Jonathan Kuminga or Trey Murphy III.
Johnson has the makings of a clear Most Improved Player contender. Therefore, snagging him at +2500 on DraftKings is an absolute steal.
