NBA season is right around the corner!
Before the campaign begins though, we get to make some bets we would never get to make during the regular season, which means it's do-or-die as tipoff approaches. I scoured the books looking for diverse odds and betting lines with value.
Last year, I wrote articles on a few of these bets below. This year, I'm giving a brief overview, but feel free to reference past articles for a more in-depth analysis. Continue below for my season-long futures bets and my NBA picks and predictions for this season.
NBA Futures: Finals Picks, Win Total Predictions, Full Season Player Props
Oklahoma City Thunder Futures
- Jalen Williams to Average 20+ Points per Game + Thunder to Win the NBA Championship (+1000, DraftKings .25u)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – NBA Finals MVP (+1000, DraftKings .25u)
I'm not writing an NBA championship preseason article this season for a few reasons. First, I want to be sure that any bet we make is on a team that will have value at the end of the season (ie odds will be shorter). Second, in the NBA playoffs, matchups and injuries matter so much, and being able to see a complete picture will make it easier. Third, it is difficult to envision a team that can challenge Boston's combination of no weaknesses on offense and defense after last season's playoffs.
With all that being said, Oklahoma City is the only team whose defense could slow Boston down, matches up well against all the teams in the West, and whose odds will get shorter. On top of that, these odds are very generous on the Thunder who are +700 at best elsewhere. They need Jalen Williams to emerge as a clear-cut #2 option to win the title. Assuming he gets to 20+ ppg (I think it's a near lock), we have the Thunder at +1000 to win the title.
Shai is a near-lock for Finals MVP if the Thunder win. He is the best player on the team and would undoubtedly be Finals MVP. I like both of these bets equally and would view a bet of .5u on either as being equivalent.
One thing we have seen year after year is that NBA Champions have multiple elite defenders, with 3 being the minimum requirement. This Thunder team has at least 4 elite defensive players. Opponents will struggle to score against them in the regular season and the playoffs, and their defensive versatility makes them a real threat. Bet down to +850.
Cleveland Cavaliers Futures
- Darius Garland to Average 20+ Points per Game + Cavaliers to Win Central Division (+650, DraftKings .2u)
Garland's season last year was a disaster, and he is finally healthy on a Cavs team ready to thrive. I also favor the Cavs in the Central division, and this is the best value we can get on them. Bet down to +550.
Denver Nuggets Futures
- Russell Westbrook to Average 13+ Points per Game / 6+ Assists per Game (+1500, DraftKings .15u)
In my 6th-man piece, I covered why I'm not betting Russ to win 6th man of the year. It's hard to believe in him, it's unclear how much Denver will rely on him, and he has not shown an ability to fit in on new teams.
But these odds are not for the standard scenario, but instead for the longer shot. Russ has averaged this essentially every season of his career other than last year. Reggie Jackson averaged 10.2 ppg and 3.8 apg last year, with less responsibility and reputation. Russ was brought in to give them a bench identity. Russ did this two years ago when he came off the bench for the Lakers/Clippers.
He could also reach this through injury to Jamal Murray and simply playing more minutes as a starter. Murray's health is always a question mark, and this gives us a huge out in that scenario. Bet down to +1000.
Los Angeles Lakers Futures
- LeBron James to Average 25+ Points per Game / 8+ Rebounds per Game, 8+ Assists per Game (+1700, DraftKings .1u)
LeBron last did this in 2019, his first year with the Lakers. Over the last four seasons, he has averaged 27.5/7.8/7.3. He has gone over this rebounds and assists threshold twice each, but not in the same season.
As his scoring burden goes down, his playmaking can go up. He is essentially a full-time power forward, and this may be his last chance to compete for a title. The Lakers are going to go all-out whenever they can, which means he will pick up stats. I'd put this around a 10% chance, which means we are getting good odds here. Bet down to 1400.
San Antonio Spurs Futures
- Victor Wembanyama 45+ Double Doubles (-110, ESPNBet .7u)
I looked at all the Wembanyama props at every book and think most of them have bad odds, except for this one.
Wemby had 43 double doubles last season, which is the 3rd-most by a rookie in the last 20 seasons. Of the rookies who had at least 26 double-doubles in their rookie year, three of them had more the following year, on was hurt, and the other fell off from 62 to 41.
Wemby will be the full-time center for the Spurs now, his rebounding is expected to go up (every book has his line higher than last year), and they don't have another good rebounder on the team. If we expect Wemby to be great, this is a way he can easily deliver.
Most Regular Season Wins: Pacific Division (+195, DraftKings .35u)
Last season, I devoted a piece to betting on the Atlantic division for this same bet. The Pacific division ultimately finished 21 wins ahead of them, as Brooklyn and Toronto were completely abysmal.
Going into this season, the Southwest division is the favorite in this category, and they are projected for the highest over/under. They have more wins projected by the books, but I think they have more downside as well. Houston has to swap their pick with Oklahoma City or Phoenix if they fall outside the top-10, which means if it's close late in the season, they will tank to keep their pick.
San Antonio has a lot riding on Victor Wembanyama and profiles as one of the worst defenses. They also could trade their veterans midseason, as having a high draft pick could help build them into a true contender someday. Memphis still has injury concerns, and Dallas always seems to bounce back and forth between great and terrible seasons under Jason Kidd.
Meanwhile, the Pacific division remains what it's been the last two seasons: a division of five teams truly competing for the playoffs.
For the past two years, all five teams have made the play-in tournament, at the very least. No team in this division truly has incentive to tank. The Lakers and Warriors are trying to compete for one final ride for their stars. The Sunsjust hired a new coach and profile to have the best-fitting team around Kevin Durant since they acquired him. The Kings might not be as good as they think, but they should be an elite team in clutch time.
The Clippers' situation might be the most interesting. Oklahoma City has the right to swap its pick with Houston (if it's outside the top-10) or the Clippers, meaning the Clippers have a strong incentive to finish with more wins than the Rockets. Coupled with some free-agent acquisitions and moving into a new stadium, I think they are at least going to try and compete. I am worried about the Kawhi Leonard injury, but the Clippers are very well coached, and they are solid at both ends of the floor.
I considered the Atlantic and Northwest, who may have the six best teams in the NBA, but also two of the three worst. Ultimately, having teams with such high over/unders leaves room to disappoint, in addition to a potential race to the bottom for Cooper Flagg. They are a pass for me, even at longer odds.
Memphis Grizzlies Futures
- Jaren Jackson Jr. All-NBA Defense (+550, DraftKings .4u)
Last year, I wrote an entire piece on All-NBA Defense, diving through the factors. The one part I got wrong: voters viewed big-men as being more impactful defensively, and four big men made all-NBA Defense first team. I expect the same this year.
There are a lot of good defensive big men in the NBA this year, and they are all +205 or shorter on DraftKings. Victor Wembanyama, Bam Adebayo, Rudy Gobert, and Anthony Davis all made it last year as big men, and should all be solid this year. Herb Jones also made it as a guard last year. Evan Mobley and Chet Holmgren are defensive anchors on two of the best defenses in the NBA, and we bet them to win DPOY for a reason.
In particular, I considered Chet Holmgren, the defensive anchor on the best defensive team in the NBA, at +195. The math doesn't work out in his favor, though. Over the last 13 seasons, the top defense in the NBA has had a player make first-team all-defense 10 times, and the three that didn't were ensemble casts (similar to OKC).
Only five players have ever made all NBA first-team defense in their first or second season. Additionally, only 20% of players who make first team all NBA defense have never made it before. Put together, I think +195 is just about fair for Chet here.
For Jaren Jackson Jr., his defensive impact is similar to the other defensive anchors, and his upside is high as well. If things click for the Grizzlies, and he returns to the form of two years ago, he would be a guaranteed first-team all-defensive player like he was in 2023 and 2022.
Jackson does have potential injury problems, as does the entire Memphis roster, but a big part of Jackson's struggle last year was as the lone big man on the floor. This year, Edey will help and put Jackson back into a roamer role, which fits him better.
These odds are too long. The books seem to be ignoring the fact that Jackson has a great chance to return to that level. I'd bet Jackson down to +350.
Hornets / Raptors 4th Place in Division Parlay (-101, DraftKings 1.5u)
I could reprint almost exactly what I wrote last year on the Hornets, when we got them at +150 last season to finish 4th. Those odds were great and higher EV, but we are still getting great odds again this season.
Just as last year, many of my Action Network colleagues are on the over. Similar to before, part of that comes from the idea that this team has the potential to be a top-tier offense, as they were 6th-best in 2022. But as I covered last year, this is not the same team, they still don't have any really great shooters and lack play creators.
Since the team was sold, new ownership has also shown a willingness to tank, which will be even more true with their first round pick being top 14 protected ahead of a loaded draft. I have looked at their team over and over again, and I think they profile at best as an average offense.
When LaMelo Ball has been on the court throughout his career, he has never been able to drive his team to elite offensive production. He isn't an elite offensive creator, but is instead a flashy player whose stats don't translate to winning. As a team, they simply don't have any players who can deliver offense consistently with above average efficiency, a recipe for not being a great offense.
Their defense also looks terrible. They are hedging most of it on Mark Williams, who has the potential to be a good defensive player but has never really showed it. Other than that, they don't have any other strong defensive players at any other position. Their biggest defensive weakness has been an inability to limit opposing teams' shots at the rim, and that will likely continue.
They are coming from so far down, having the worst net rating in the NBA last season. Even a strong improvement would still put them below 30 wins. They also have injury risk with Ball and Williams, neither of which is healthy coming into the season.
In particular, Williams has consistently struggled to stay healthy, just got out of a walking boot, and is the potential key to this team's success. I see them as being better than Washington (the worst team in the NBA), but likely several tiers below Atlanta, who should be better this year on both sides of the floor. I have them projected around 70% to finish as the 4th place team in the Southeast division, which gives this great value.
Toronto's situation is even more extreme, but much of the same. Brooklyn is clearly intending to tank toward the worst team in the NBA. The three teams above Toronto are all trying to win an NBA title, with Boston, New York, and Philadelphia all potentially better than they were last year.
I project Toronto over 95% to finish 4th place in the Atlantic, likely ringing in somewhere between 25 and 45 wins, which seems like it should be a lock this season. Bet down to -135.
