The NBA season is here! I've bet a lot of futures, as any good degenerate does but with such an open field of competitors and so much talent on the best squads, there's real value to find in the awards and futures markets.
Here are my best bets for the 2022-2023 NBA season.
Most Improved Player Best Bet: Tyrese Maxey +1400 (BetRivers)
This became my best buy, and biggest position as the preseason came into focus.
There are player performance derivatives to team outcomes that influence the awards market. The Sixers are trendy, but they’re trendy because a lot of smart people recognize this is the best roster of the Joel Embiid era.
So if the Sixers are going to be really good, then their players will be in the conversation for awards. You can pick whatever you’d like. Brandon Anderson likes Joel Embiid, Defensive Player of the Year. Others lean towards Embiid MVP.
There’s some conversation about Most Improved Player for James Harden, which would be the most backhanded award in league history. I’ll take Maxey MIP. He checks all the boxes.
You need a big jump in scoring year over year. Maxey averaged 17 last season, which is a higher number than the standard prior season for winners, but it was so under the radar that it will only make it more impressive when he jumps by 6-8 points.
What’s surprising is that when James Harden joined the Sixers last season, Maxey’s per-game scoring jumped from 16.9 to 18.7. He scored more after Harden joined, on fewer shots.
Maxey’s numbers are firmly within the framework of where the winners were the year before they won over the last 10 seasons. James Harden has spoken pretty openly about how he’s transitioning to more of a pure point in his later career.
In the playoffs, we routinely saw Harden and Embiid running pick and roll, manipulating the defense, and then feeding Maxey on cuts for scoring opportunities.
I don’t think All-Star consideration and a leap to third-star status is out of the question for Maxey and that puts him firmly within consideration.
He’s still a very long number at 12-1 or better. This is my favorite bet on the board.
Rookie of the Year Best Bet: Paolo Banchero +200 (FanDuel)
Banchero is this year’s winner of the “Why did we overthink this?” award. He was talked about as the leader for the No. 1 pick coming into last season, then the talk was Jabari Smith for several months, with Chet Holmgren as the snooty, hipster take.
Then it still wound up Banchero. By Summer League, the common conversation question was, “Why did we ever think it was anyone else?”
Banchero was not only super skilled and comfortable with the ball in his hands, potentially forecasting work as the team’s primary engine, but also looked in pro shape; he looked stronger than the other rookies.
A strong preseason (14-5 on 47% shooting) in 24 minutes per game has done nothing to dissuade me. The rookie of the year winner puts up big numbers as a starter. Banchero projects to do just that.
This is is a boring bet, the favorite, but Banchero checks all the boxes: usage, production, NBA comfort, attitude, and opportunity.
Longshot Bet: Jalen Williams +2500 (WynnBet)
“Santa Clara,” as he has been referred to as the Thunder drafted both him and Jaylin Williams out of Arkansas, has been a buzz among OKC staffers for some time. They were excited when he was available in last June’s draft, they were excited when they got him in for summer work, and they’re excited in preseason.
There are usage concerns with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey, but Williams averaged 14-5 in preseason (24 mpg) and looks like the type of player to absorb production opportunities.
If you want a longer number under the premise that Paolo Banchero and Jabari Smith are overrated, this is the best shot in the dark.
Late Addition: Bennedict Mathurin +650 (FanDuel)
Mathurin averaged 19.8 points per game in 23.5 minutes per game in preseason, shooting 48% from the field and 85% from the line. That, combined with his highlight plays, is enough to warrant a bet at 10-1.
I don’t love it as much as the Banchero bet because the last seven guards to win the award have been point guards who were the primary initiator and not score-first two-guards, but at 10-1, I wanted a position. I still like him at his current number, but be sure to shop around for the best odds.
NBA MVP Best Bet: Luka Doncic +500 (FanDuel)
“Oh, wow, the favorite, thanks for the amazing bet."
Do you want the value or not?
Think about how the Mavericks shaped their roster in the offseason. They let Jalen Brunson walk and didn’t bring in another ball-handler. They retained all their perimeter shooters on the wing and added a combo inside-out weapon offensively in Christian Wood.
This bet is not based on how good Doncic is, all the serious candidates are great players. But very few are set to have the usage Doncic is for a winning team. I’m expecting Doncic to have one of the all-time usage rates.
You can argue about the reason for that: roster, Doncic’s designs, the most effective tactic available, but the result is the same: Doncic is going to put up ridiculous numbers.
The second question is if he’ll win enough. We’ve seen wins become less important the last few years, but really, if the Pelicans don’t make a massive jump and the Grizzlies take a step back, the Mavericks can win the division and that likely puts them at 50 wins which is enough to win.
There’s no resistance to Doncic from the voters; they’ve been waiting for him to ascend to the top of the league in star power, and this looks very much like the season. He’s in shape coming off the EuroBasket run, with an absolutely ridiculous offensive production slate in front of him. He’s the best bet.
Zion Williamson +2500 (BetMGM)
Stats matter. Wins matter. But being the “story” of the season also matters. If the Pelicans leap from a play-in team to a top-3 seed in a brutal Western Conference and Williamson puts up the kind of numbers he put up two years ago when healthy, then guess what? Zion is the story of the season.
Sure, the injury stuff is worrisome, but he is visibly in the best shape of his career. He’s surrounded by weapons to boost the assist numbers. He will simply Hulk-Smash his way to huge scoring and rebounding numbers.
You cannot watch Zion play and think he’s just putting up numbers. He very clearly impacts the game at a level that very few players do. It’s not pretty like Steph Curry or cerebral like Nikola Jokic. But it is watching hurricane-force winds flatten structures, and that’s pretty impactful.
At 20-1, if my cap on the Pelicans is correct that their floor is high 40’s, there’s no way his odds don’t shorten. I grabbed it on media day when I saw his changes to conditioning, but there's still value here.
Stephen Curry +1600 (BetRivers)
Here’s a good example of the impact Curry has on the market: Curry didn’t even have a great start to the season shooting wise, and because the Warriors were so good to start the year, he was still the favorite until the market caught up.
I have a Warriors under ticket, this effectively hedges against that. If the Warriors are above their 52.5 win mark, then there’s a strong likelihood that Curry is top three in MVP going into the stretch run, and you have hedge options.
I think it’s likely the Warriors coast, but if they don’t, Curry’s odds will go down. I think Curry’s an injury risk at this point in his career with this many miles on him, but if I’m wrong, Curry’s odds will go down.
It’s not the best value on the board, but I do think it’s worth betting on building a portfolio based on his combination of stats, wins, and the nearly unanimous love among the voting contingent.
NBA Win Totals
If you haven't already check out this article, which has bet I'm making, teams I have a lean on and the ones I'm avoiding (Spoiler: I want no parts of the Utah experiment.)
Kings Over 33.5: Motivation, motivation, motivation. Ownership and management won’t pull the plug and re-orient towards the lottery. They will pursue a playoff spot to the ends of the earth. Positive signs of vibes and play in the preseason.
Competent veterans (Domantas Sabonis, De’Aaron Fox, Harrison Barnes, Kevin Huerter) and interesting young guys (Keegan Murray, Davion Mitchell) with experienced, well-liked coaching (Mike Brown). Most importantly, sweet spot number. They don’t have to be good, they just have to not be bad.
Celtics Under 54.5: Teams with a win total of 50 or more are 27-15-1 to the under the last ten years (63%). Teams with a win total of 54.5 or more are 16-10 (61.5%) to the under. It’s a tough line to cross, and the market overreacted to the Celtics adding Malcolm Brogdon (who I love as a player). Coaching uncertainty, Robert Williams injury, and one of the highest numbers on the board. Max bet under.
Nuggets Over 50.5: Preseason great vibes, a fully healthy Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr., an improved roster and specifically bench with more veteran players, chance of a leap from Bones Hyland, and a coach whose teams have gone over in literally every full 82-game season he’s coached.
Denver’s DraftKings seeding line of 4.5 (juiced under) is great. The Nuggets having the most wins is great. There are a lot of ways to bet on this team, but the easiest is just “more than 50 wins for a team with the two-time MVP and a stacked roster.”
Grizzlies Under 51: Jaren Jackson is out for a duration of time. Taylor Jenkins said this week it’s weeks and not months for Jackson to start 5-on-5 but the gap between that and back-in-game condition is considerable. They lost Kyle Anderson and De’Anthony Melton (and cut Killian Tillie in the preseason).
Their replacement talent is unproven. Dillon Brooks is back, which means a lower usage rate for Desmond Bane, and that’s a downgrade. A high number for a team that overperformed last year, all the signals point to the under.
Bucks Under 52.5: This was a late add for me after the preseason. Khris Middleton is weeks away after wrist surgery, Pat Connaughton will miss time. The rest of the roster has a ton of miles on them. One of their rotation players, Joe Ingles, won’t even be back until midseason.
They looked really bad in preseason, which can be something or nothing, but it’s not a good sign. It’s a 50-plus number (again, 27-15-1 to the under for 50-plus win totals last ten years) for a team with very little reason to strain for the regular season.
Season-Long Player Props
Stephen Curry To Lead The NBA In 3-Pointers Per Game (-175): This number is at DraftKings and it's dumb (our own Joe Dellera cleverly explains why here).
It’s a per-game stat, so Curry doesn’t even have to play that many games, just enough to get to the qualification. He has won it every year except the 2020 season he took off. This number should be above -250 with an implied probability north of 70%.
It’s literally the greatest 3-point shooter of all time on a 3-point prop. Are you going to really feel dumb if this doesn’t cash after it cashed in eight of nine years?
Bam Adebayo Under 10.5 Rebounds Per Game (-110): The Heat don’t have a power forward. They just don’t have one. (No Udonis Haslem jokes, please. In this house, we respect UD.)
They’re likely to start Caleb Martin. That doesn’t seem like a long-term solution. One thing they will likely do quite a bit is playing Omer Yurtseven at center with Adebayo. That would reduce rebound opportunities.
Adebayo is being asked to score more. His preferred scoring range is closer to the middle of the floor either for jumpers or drives, and those will reduce his standing rebound chances on the offensive end. He also plays a lot of zone and switch coverage which moves him further from the rim and will reduce this number.
Nikola Jokic Under 26.5 Points Per Game (-118): I bet this at a point higher at 27.5, but it’s fine here. Jokic is still the Nuggets’ best player and one of the most impactful and efficient players in the league.
However, his team is way more stacked than the last two seasons. With Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray back, alongside Aaron Gordon, a shooter in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and improved supporting guards in Bones Hyland and Bruce Brown, Jokic just doesn’t have to score as much.
There will be nights where Jokic puts up 30 without breaking a sweat. There will be nights when Jokic puts up 15, and the Nuggets are so far ahead that he’s done by midway third.
The key is that success for Jokic has never been dictated by numbers. Not ever. It’s not the way he approaches the game, and for once, I believe a guy when he says he doesn’t care about the numbers.
Jokic will just have a lot of nights where Murray or MPJ is cooking, and he doesn’t have to put up 25-plus. He won’t be way off this number, but he’ll be off by enough to clear this.
NBA Championship Winner
I already bet on the Clippers, Sixers, and Bucks after the Finals in June.
I still like the value of those three teams; the Clippers are deepest and best-built for the playoffs, the Sixers could be facing a much easier East than people expect, and the Bucks have Giannis. I added a bet on the Nuggets; if I think they finish with a top-3 seed in the West, there’s value.
This team isn’t some playoff fraud, they made the conference finals two years ago and have been eliminated in the first round once under Michael Malone, when they faced the eventual champion without MPJ and Murray with an exhausted roster and no bench.
The teams I expect to be in the title conversation by conference:
East: Sixers, Celtics, Nets, Bucks, with the Cavaliers and Hawks potentially a dark horse candidate (only one of them will be in the conversation)
West: Nuggets, Clippers, Warriors, with the Suns a coin flip.
It may seem surprising that I have so few teams in the discussion in the West, but I can’t buy the Wolves in Year 1 sight unseen, I’m down on the Grizzlies and don’t take the Mavericks or Pelicans as serious threats.
