Rebounds, assists, and 3-point props weren't as clearly tilted toward the under last season. There were 197 lines for rebound props prior to the 2023-24 season, but this season, that number is at 487. There are also 19 more players listed than last year.
With more lines comes more opportunity, which is why I have more long-shot bets that I really like.
Let's get to my NBA player prop picks for the 2024-25 season.
Andre Drummond 9+ Rebounds per game, +150, .35u, BetMGM
Drummond is an incredible rebounder. Over the past two seasons, he has averaged almost 19 rebounds per 36 minutes with the Bulls. The last time he was in Philadelphia, he averaged 17.3 rebounds per game.
Since Drummond is backing up Joel Embiid, he will likely start 20-30 games, and when he comes off the bench, he'll be playing 14-20 minutes, depending on the contest.
At 18 minutes per game, he'd have been at about nine rebounds per game last season, and he should be approaching that amount of minutes this season.
Chet Holmgren 8+ Rebounds per game, .5u, +110, FanDuel and 9+ Rebounds per Game, .25u, +410
Last season, Holmgren averaged 7.9 rebounds per game. Since 2003, 14 big men have averaged between seven and nine rebounds per game. For nine of them, that average went up the following year, and for six, it went up by over a whole rebound.
Players become better rebounders with more experience, and while Isaiah Hartenstein is joining the team, Josh Giddey, who ate up a lot of rebounds, has departed. Holmgren was a solid rebounder in college and I expect his averages to go up this season.
Daniel Gafford 7+ Rebounds per game, .5u +200 and 8+ Rebounds per game, .2u, +700
Once Gafford got to Dallas last season, he averaged 6.9 rebounds per game. If Lively is completely healthy, starts 82 games, and plays 28-32 minutes per game, this bet will definitely not hit. But Lively has not had a perfect bill of health, it isn't clear who the starter is, and Gafford has been really solid. Both these odds are too long.
Josh Hart 9+ Rebounds per game, 1u +250 and 10+ Rebounds per game, .35u +800
After Julius Randle went down, Josh Hart averaged 10.6 rebounds per game last season. This season, he will be starting, playing a ton of minutes and the Knicks won't be playing a dominant rebounding center.
Hart is also the nominal power forward. The Knicks also have injury risks in Karl-Anthony Towns and OG Anunoby. Hart is going to play a lot of minutes and these numbers are just way too low for someone with his rebounding acumen.
He's the best rebounder on the team, and the 10+ rebounds is probably my favorite player prop bet.
Zach Edey 9+ Rebounds per game, .4u, +150 BetMGM and 10+ Rebounds per game, .2u, +550
Edey was a dominant rebounder in college and comes to Memphis, where he is almost guaranteed the starting spot next to Jaren Jackson Jr.
When Steven Adams and Jonas Valanciunas started next to Jackson, they averaged 10-11.5 rebounds per game, all while playing 26-to-28 minutes.
Edey is set up for success and this number is high, but rookies have done it before. In fact, Deandre Ayton, Victor Wembanyama, Towns, Dwight Howard and others all topped 10 rebounds per game as rookies. Edey has a great chance to get there and nine should be closer to +100.
Jusuf Nurkic Over 10.3 Rebounds per game, .4u, -115 DraftKings
Nurkic has gone over this number in four of the past six seasons.
In Phoenix, he is the primary rebounder and center, and doesn't have a particularly good backup. In Nurkic's first season in Phoenix, his defensive rebound rate went up, and he had one of the best offensive rebound rates of his career. Nurkic has only gone under this number in seasons where his team was terrible or he was hurt.
The Suns also don't play a great rebounding power forward, which just means there are more opportunities for Nurkic to easily surpass this number.
Nic Claxton Under 10.8 Rebounds per Game, 1u, -115 DraftKings
Last year, Ayton, Jalen Duren and Wembanyama all averaged at least 10.5 rebounds per game on teams that won fewer than 30% of their games. In the previous 10 seasons, that happened one other time.
The Nets are going to be bad and Claxton is a trade candidate. If he is dealt, he will likely have a smaller role and average even fewer rebounds. Claxton averaged under 10 last season, played 30 minutes per game and is a decent, but not great, rebounder.
I'm not sure why he would play more minutes or average more rebounds on a bad team.
Brandon Ingram 5+ Assists per Game, .3u, +165 FanDuel
Ingram has quietly become one of the better passers at the forward position and has averaged over five assists for three straight seasons.
Ja Morant Over 7.5 Assists per Game, .6u, -115 MGM/DraftKings/ESPN Bet
I'm excited for Morant's return and to hopefully see him for more of the season. In 2023, he averaged 8.1 assists, which was the same as what he averaged last season, in fewer games.
The Grizzlies don't have Tyus Jones anymore, who was the point guard when he played with Morant. Instead, Morant will be playing point full time and have Edey to pass finish. Edey will be the best offensive big man Morant has played with in years.
Morant is a great passer, who has been forced to be a scorer more often, but as he gets older, I expect his assists to continue to rise, not go the other way, as these odds imply.
Damian Lillard Over 3.1 3s per Game, .7u, -115 MGM/DraftKings and 4+ 3s per Game, .25u, +950 DraftKings
Lillard was terrible last season. He hit his fewest amount of 3s since 2019 and shot his worst percentage from 3 in a full season since 2015.
The Bucks were a mess, Lillard didn't stay in shape over the summer and the chemistry between him and Giannis Antetokounmpo was off all season. Last year was the worst case scenario on all fronts, and he still averaged 3.0 3s per game.
This over seems like a lock if Lillard has any sort of return to form. Lillard has also hit four or more 3s in three of the past five seasons.
The Bucks will reach their potential if Lillard plays better and I expect he will get up a lot more 3s. I'd give him a 25% chance to hit over four 3s per game, making this a high EV bet.
Michael Porter Jr. Under 3.1 3s per Game, .4u, -105, DraftKings
Porter has never gone over this number in his career. The Nuggets will need his shooting more than ever, but he could also shoot worse from 3 with worse spacing, miss time or just not get as many 3s up.
I'm not sure Porter will have the type of season that this number implies.
James Harden Under 2.8 3s per Game, .4u, -115, DraftKings/MGM
I'm not sure what to make of the Clippers, who seems to be putting their entire offense on Harden.
Harden has gradually taken fewer and fewer 3s, and with Paul George gone, Harden doesn't have anyone to set him up. If he takes more pull0up 3s, he will shoot worse and be under this number. If he is more cautious, he will take fewer 3s, and therefore be under this number.
He hasn't averaged over 2.8 since Houston, and I don't expect him to start now.
