The Boston Celtics are the current reigning NBA champs and enter the 2024-25 season with the shortest title odds. Which teams crack the list for top five biggest threats to a Boston repeat? And should you bet the Celtics to once again hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy?
How Dominant Were the 2024 Boston Celtics
The Celtics assuredly had an easy run to the NBA Finals because of injury luck, and nobody should dispute that claim. When Jimmy Butler, Donovan Mitchell, Jarrett Allen, and Tyrese Haliburton miss a combined 12 games, it’s not exactly a grueling path.
However, Boston was likely eliminating them anyway. They featured the best eight-man rotation in basketball and profiled as a historically dominant team. Don’t believe me?
During the regular season, the champs led the NBA in net effective field goal percentage, turned the ball over at the lowest rate, and ranked top two in both offensive and defensive rating. As a result, the Celtics outscored opponents on average by 11.6 points per 100 possessions – fourth best all time. They astonishingly led by 20+ points for about 13% of their total possessions, which surpasses even the league-shattering 2017 Warriors’ 9% mark (per NBA stats guru AOP_NBA).
Every player who logged a playoff minute last year except for Svi Mykhailiuk returns for this season, so the Celtics are once again the gold standard. Their stars have extra motivation too.
Jayson Tatum rarely played during the Olympics because Steve Kerr effectively benched him, and social media has not been kind to Tatum recently about the “carried” and “non-superstar” narratives. Jaylen Brown, on the other hand, didn’t even make the Olympics team despite just winning Finals MVP. And then there’s Joe Mazulla in the background stirring the pot like an instigator. Complacency should be a foreign term in this locker room.
Top 5 Threats to the Boston Celtics
5. Philadelphia 76ers
It’s no secret that Boston has won 12-of-16 playoff games against Philadelphia during the Joel Embiid era. This revamped 76ers roster could finally break that ugly streak though.
Before his January injury, Embiid’s improved playmaking finally had him looking like the complete offensive package. He dictated possessions like a maestro and put defenses into lose-lose situations. If the MVP enters the postseason healthy (a big if), then I don’t believe the Celtics will be able to contain him to the same degree as usual, especially since Al Horford is now 38-years-old.
Tyrese Maxey may be a borderline top-15 player hiding in plain sight. He exploded for 29.8 points and 6.8 assists per game against New York’s stingy defense last postseason. The Kentucky product runs the pick-and-roll, scores in isolation or transition, and morphs into a 3-point flamethrower.
Meanwhile, free agency acquisition Paul George joins the roster as an overqualified third option. PG-13 is still a silky-smooth scorer who produced a dominant 1.29 points per jump shot in the regular season. He’s struggled to create off the dribble versus playoff defenses recently, but George doesn’t have to carry that burden with Embiid and Maxey next to him. Plus, his defensive length is a huge asset when Brown and Tatum come to town.
Glue wings Caleb Martin and Kelly Oubre Jr. complete an impressive starting lineup that owns the firepower to vie against Boston’s, but depth is a major concern to me.
Andre Drummond will get attacked in space by the Celtics’ numerous ball-handlers. Kyle Lowry’s 38-years-old, Reggie Jackson is incredibly streaky, KJ Martin can’t shoot, Eric Gordon can’t defend, and Jared McCain is a rookie.
The 76ers theoretically have the star power to give Boston a run for their money, yet they are likely too thin. A trade deadline move using Martin’s $7.9M contract could muddy the waters though.
Finally, Philly is too unreliable from a health perspective. If I knew Embiid and George were at full strength, then the 76ers would be fourth on this list. Concerns drop them down a spot.
4. Indiana Pacers
Boston swept Indiana in the Eastern Conference Finals, yet it was a highly competitive battle. Mazulla agreed. He told John Karalis of the Boston Sports Journal that the “Indiana series was by far the toughest series … and it should have gone seven games.”
The Pacers’ offensive system consistently achieves great shot quality. For example, a league-leading 57.1% of their field-goal attempts were either in the restricted area or wide-open triples during the regular season. They can shoot the lights out from 3-point range, crank up the pace, and play selfless basketball.
Pascal Siakam’s ability to score via post-ups also allows them to pivot and exploit a weakness for Boston’s defense.
The top two players across the league in high value assists per 75 possessions? Haliburton and TJ McConnell, according to Basketball Index. Their system insulates the team from poor individual performances. If there’s an offense that has the tools to create advantages against Boston across 48 minutes, it’s Indiana – especially if the Andrew Nembhard leap is real.
Things start to fall apart on the defensive end. Haliburton will get hunted, and they lack strong wing defenders outside of Aaron Nesmith. He’s a touch undersized versus the Celtics’ personnel too. Additionally, Jrue Holiday used his strength to back down Indiana’s small guards and play bully-ball. These issues still exist.
Sophomore Jarace Walker enters the year as a huge X-Factor. Defensive versatility and passing chops were huge reasons behind why Indiana selected him with the eighth overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. The 6'7" tweener also went 22-for-55 from distance as a rookie, so his shooting touch may be an added bonus. If the 21-year-old takes a significant leap, then the Pacers will have a physical yet nimble defender to throw at Brown, Tatum, and Kristaps Porziņģis without compromising offensive integrity.
3. New York Knicks
Despite lacking ideal conditions, Jalen Brunson proved that he’s capable of being the top scorer on a legitimate contender. Now, the environment is perfect for his drive-heavy offense.
New York added plenty of 3-point shooting this offseason, and a 5-Out offense is possible with Karl-Anthony Towns on the team. In fact, it’s more than possible. It’s downright scary. Defenses will struggle mightily to simultaneously slow down Brunson and stay tethered to shooters.
Towns and Mikal Bridges both have self-created scoring in their tool boxes, which stops “the Jalen Brunson show” from being a must. The more offensive avenues the better, and the Knicks definitely built more roads.
OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, Miles McBride, and Mitchell Robinson all add diverse strengths too that keep the offense unpredictable and running smoothly.
Defensively, the Knicks possess numerous stoppers to throw against Boston’s guards and wings. Robinson’s rim protection is key, and a two-big lineup will be fully operational. Under Tom Thibodeau’s guidance, New York’s defense can create problems for the Celtics.
Plus, they play physical, mean, relentless basketball. That style has bothered Boston’s stars in the past. And even if the Celtics do get past the Knicks, the grueling series likely leaves them bruised and battered for the next round.
2. Denver Nuggets
There’s always that one villain who rises above the others to pose existential threats. Sherlock Holmes had Professor Moriarty, Austin Powers had Dr. Evil … and the Celtics have Nikola Jokić.
In two matchups last season, Jokić averaged 33 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists on 61% shooting from the field. Joker is a nightmare because he’s too strong on the block and doubling him only results in a wide open shot to a marksman or cutter. Elite post players give Boston trouble, and it’s undeniable that the reigning MVP is one of the best post players in league history.
Jamal Murray’s flexible offensive game perfectly complements Jokić's game, and he’s extremely clutch. The 2024 playoffs somewhat soiled Murray’s name among the crowds and have made him underrated. He played through a calf strain and injured elbow folks! That wasn’t a healthy version of him. How easily we forget Denver’s championship run in which Murray averaged 26.1 points and 7.1 assists while shooting nearly 40% from downtown.
Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon balance the offense and bring defensive size. Gordon, in particular, is an awesome chess piece to throw at Tatum.
Questioning their depth is valid, yet it may not be by the end of the regular season. It’s probably a smart bet to count on Christian Braun and Peyton Watson being viable 3&D options. Russell Westbrook adds bench playmaking and energy, while Julian Strawther has the shooting talent to potentially crack the playoff rotation.
Additionally, it’s the first time that Denver owns a backup center (Dario Šarić) who can at least mimic Jokić's play style to a small degree, thus allowing them to maintain their preferred offense throughout the game.
This is a team with championship experience who rediscovered their hunger. Boston should be happy to see Denver sent home early.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
The most complete team in basketball on paper has looked like a juggernaut so far this preseason.
Alex Caruso, Luguentz Dort, and Cason Wallace are the best trio of perimeter defenders across the NBA. Whether it’s shutting down the point-of-attack or staying attached as an off-ball chaser, they clamp anything that moves under the sun. If ball-handlers manage to create an advantage, then Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein act as erasers.
Jalen Williams and Aaron Wiggins fill in the gaps as switchable defensive wings, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander jumps passing lanes like a master thief. Even their 3-point specialist Isaiah Joe holds his own.
Essentially, the Thunder possess the top defense in the league that’s capable of handling any situation. It’s like Sam Presti entered the Matrix and grabbed 10 Agent Smith’s to fill the roster. Interchangeable, unexploitable, calculating – that’s the mantra of this defense. Because OKC can switch anything, Boston’s ability to attack mismatches with nearly any of their players does not pose the same threat as usual.
On the other end, Gilgeous-Alexander has ascended to superstar status. His flexibility, contact balance, and length mean he’s virtually impossible to stop when he finds his groove.
Jalen Williams is on a Paul George-esque trajectory. Few wings are smoother and more efficient than J-Dub. He’s poised to take a leap this year and become a true number two option.
Meanwhile, the remainder of the roster can all shoot, pass, cut, and make correct reads. Chet Holmgren improving as a self-created scorer would truly be the cherry on top.
If there’s one team that the Celtics do not want to see, it’s the ascending Thunder.
Should You Bet Boston to Win the Title
Boston is currently priced around +320 to win the 2025 NBA Finals, which is an implied probability of 23.81%.
The Celtics are still a ridiculously great team, yet it’s a pass to me at that price for two reasons. First, Kristaps Porziņģis’ health cannot be ignored. Skinny giants with numerous past knee injuries tend to be at huge risk. He missed a chunk of the 2024 playoffs and is already ruled out until December. It's an unfortunate reality that Porziņģis may miss plenty of games this postseason.
The Celtics didn’t need him to orchestrate a dominant title run last year, but this season projects to be much tougher due to the offseason arms race that took place. Overall, the line doesn’t have enough meat based on injuries and competition. With teams also constructing their teams to specifically match up against Boston, too many things can go wrong to lay down a bet at +320 odds.
