The 2024 NBA Playoffs are reaching peak levels of pandemonium.
We've got a pair of Game 7s on the slate for Sunday with Pacers vs Knicks and Timberwolves vs Nuggets, and were seconds away from a third Game 7 on Monday night with Thunder vs Mavericks going down to the wire in Game 6 Saturday.
After Sunday on two teams will emerge from the fray to move on to the Conference finals. Let's dive into some Game 7 trends.
Game 7 Trends
There are betting trends for every situation in basketball and while we never recommend blindly betting trends, that sentiment is even more true based on the balance we've seen this postseason. Road teams have a very slight edge against the spread (34-31), but aren't profitable and underdogs are 33-32 ATS.
In 61 Game 7s over the last 20 years, home teams are 29-28 against the spread and favorites are 31-29-1 ATS, according to data from Bet Labs.
The one constant? The total in Game 7s has gone under 62.3% of the time (38-23 ATS) by 4.9 points per game.
In the lone Game 7 we've had this year, Magic vs Cavaliers in Round 1, the game actually went over. Since 2018-19, Game 7 unders are 13-4.
As the playoffs get deeper, unders hit at an increasingly higher rate. Over the last 20 years, here are Game 7 unders by round:
- Round 1: 13-14
- Round 2: 13-8
- Conf Finals: 7-1
- NBA Finals: 4-0
Pacers vs Knicks Odds
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 208.5 -110 / -110 | +114 |
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 208.5 -110 / -110 | -135 |
This will be the Knicks' first Game 7 since 2000 against the Heat. It's the first Game 7 at Madison Square Garden since 1995 against the Pacers — also last time Knicks were favored to win a Game 7 — and they lost to Indiana, 97-95.
The Knicks haven’t won and covered a Game 7 since May 22, 1994. They won by 10 over the Bulls to make the Conference Finals.
The role as an underdog has not been kind to the Pacers in the playoffs.
Since 2017, Indiana is 2-19 SU as an underdog in the playoffs — the least profitable team on the moneyline of any team.
That includes 0-9 SU as a dog in Games 3-7 of a playoff series in that span.
There’s always been a stigma when it comes to Tom Thibodeau and how many games his players can hold up during the season when it comes to rest.
As a head coach, his teams are 559-418 SU (57.2%) in games 1-90 of a season. Even winning 58% of games between Game 83-90.
After Game 90, his teams are just 6-16 SU (27.3%) — with a $100 bettor down $1,222 — worst of 54 coaches last 20 years.
A key talking point for the Knicks this postseason has been attrition. They've had a seven-man rotation at times during their run with their starters playing 40-plus minutes regularly.
The Knicks have been dealing with injuries all season and have two key players who are questionable for Game 7 — Josh Hart and OG Anunoby — which means their rotation could be even shorter than it has been for the past two weeks.
The Knicks are playing a 3:30 ET Sunday after playing on Friday night, which means they'll have very little time for rest between games. Historically, this spot has been favorable to home teams: 14-4 straight up and 12-6 ATS since 2005.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets Odds
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 198 -110 / -110 | +170 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 198 -110 / -110 | -205 |
The 45-point loss for the Nuggets is the largest in NBA history entering a Game 7.
The biggest prior Game 6 loss before a Game 7 was in 1996 when Seattle lost 118-83 on the road in Utah, then beat the Jazz 90-86 at home and then back in 1978 when Seattle also lost 117-82 in Washington and then lost at home 105-99 in Game 7.
Here are the only two other examples of 30-plus point Game 6 losses: 2018 CLE lost vs. IND, then won | 1992 CLE lost vs. BOS, then won
The O/U in Timberwolves-Nuggets is 197.5 after opening at 199.
- At 197.5, it would be the lowest O/U in any Nuggets game since December, 2018. Below 197.5, it would be their lowest since April, 2016 vs. Jazz (191.5).
- At 197.5, it would be Minnesota’s lowest since October, 2017 (197) and below that mark it would be their lowest since January, 2017 (196).
MIN-DEN would be 2nd playoff since since 2018 playoffs to close with total under 198 and a spread of 5 pts or more.
April 2018, Bucks at Celtics. Closed 196, BOS won 112-96 as 5-pt favorite.
Chris Finch is 0-4 SU as an underdog in Games 5-7 of a playoff series in his career as a head coach.
In the last 20 years, only one other head coach is 0-5 SU or worse as an underdog in Games 5-7 of a playoff series: Brad Stevens at 0-8 SU. On the other side, Michael Malone is 17-6 SU in Games 5-7 of a playoff series, including 10-1 SU as a favorites, 9-1 SU at home and 3-1 SU in Game 7s.
