Friday's NBA slate features six games with several injuries and questionable players. We'll analyze the only one that matters…
- Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder: 8 p.m. ET
Note: The information below is as of 10 a.m. ET. Check out our live news feed and follow us on Twitter for up-to-the-minute news and analysis.
Thunder F Paul George (shoulder) is questionable.
Injury background: George has been dealing with a sore left shoulder for most of March, and the Thunder have finally added him to the injury report. He has missed four games total this season and three games with a sore right shoulder.
Tonight's impact: Dennis Schroder has started three times in George's absence, and Markieff Morris started the other game only to be replaced at the start of the third quarter by Schroder.
The Thunder went 2-2 sans George, losing to teams with winning records and defeating teams with losing records.
In the four games George missed, Schroder averaged a team-high and FantasyLabs' +10.2 DraftKings Plus/Minus in 36.2 minutes per game. Conversely, Russell Westbrook failed to meet salary-based expectations twice and averaged 53.38 DraftKings points per game, per the NBA On/Off tool. That output coincides with his per-36 minute stats minus George: 52.99 DraftKings points.
If George is ruled out, Schroder will become the chalk play in all formats. Westbrook failed to meet salary-based expectations on DraftKings in the first three games against the Nuggets this season, but Steven Adams and Jerami Grant have done so each time.
When the four traditional starters have been on the court without George, the Thunder have sustained a -4.3 Net Rating and a 56.7% effective field goal mark — ranking in the third percentile.
The Thunder are presently favored by 5.0 points and implied to score 113.0, per the NBA Vegas dashboard. The Nuggets claim the fifth-best Defensive Rating (107.5) since the All-Star break. They've also gone 9-1 and posted a +8.1 Net Rating on zero days rest, and they've ranked 28th in pace on the second night of a back-to-back, emphasizing the under.
The Nuggets won the first three games of the season series — all close games. The Thunder failed to score at least 100 points in the first two meetings, and they fell short of today's implied total by one point in the most recent match. George's status may significantly alter the betting line in the Nuggets' favor, but even if he plays the Nuggets have performed well enough against the Thunder and on back-to-backs to warrant action.
