There are four games tonight with a few injuries and questionable players. We'll analyze two games in this article: the Los Angeles Clippers at Denver Nuggets and the Detroit Pistons at Sacramento Kings.
Note: The information below is as of 4:30 p.m. ET. Check out our live news feed and follow us on Twitter for up-to-the-minute news and analysis.
Nuggets G Gary Harris (hamstring) is questionable.
Injury background: Harris left with a tight left hamstring in the third quarter of Monday's loss and didn't play Tuesday.
Tonight's impact: Harris missed 11 of 12 December games due to a hip injury. In that time, Torrey Craig started alongside Juancho Hernangomez on the wing. When Harris returned to the starting lineup Monday, he replaced Hernangomez, not Craig.
Without Harris on Tuesday, Malik Beasley started for the first time this season and Hernangomez was limited to nine minutes off the bench. The game prior, with Harris starting, Beasley led the reserves with 26 minutes.
Craig appears locked into the starting lineup regardless of Harris' status tonight, and it'll come down to Beasley or Hernangomez starting if Harris can't play.
Over the last nine games, Craig ranks second on the team with 2.7 offensive rebounds per game — the third-highest output among players shorter than 6-foot-10 in the NBA. That should work in his favor, as opponents have secured 11.7 offensive rebounds — second-highest allowed — per game against the Clippers.
In six of the last seven games, the Nuggets have ranked in the 87th percentile in offensive rebound rate and averaged a league-high 14.9 offensive boards over that span.
The Nuggets faced the Clippers two weeks ago sans Harris, and it ended in a 21-point loss after Nikola Jokic was ejected midway through the third quarter. In the season-opener against the Clippers, every Nuggets starter played at least 30 minutes and Jokic supplied 44.0 DraftKings points.
With Harris off the court since the beginning of December, Jokic has averaged 1.44 DraftKings points per minute, and that number has increased to 1.48 with Paul Millsap on the court minus Harris in 122 minutes, per the NBA On/Off tool.
Centers have crushed against the Clippers since 6-foot-8 Montrezl Harrell gets the bulk of the minutes.
The Clippers own the fourth-highest Defensive Rating since the beginning of December, yielding 114.0 points per 100 possessions. In six games against teams with a Defensive Rating of at least 112.5 over that stretch, the Nuggets went 3-3 and averaged 112.6 points.
Beasley averaged 26.37 FanDuel points in those six games, and Jokic added 52.94 FanDuel points, per the Trends tool. Harris was available for two of those games, and Millsap missed two of the losses and fractured his toe in the other.
Unfortunately for DFS players and bettors, don't expect an update on Harris until after 7 p.m. ET lineup lock:
The #Nuggets will not shootaround today (1/10). Head Coach Michael Malone will hold his regular pre-game availability at 5:15pm outside the Nuggets locker room.
— NuggetsPR (@NuggetsPR) January 10, 2019
Kings F Iman Shumpert (finger) is questionable.
Injury background: Shumpert has missed the previous three games with a sprained right index finger and is questionable tonight.
Update at 4:30 p.m. ET: Shumpert is now listed as probable. For more information, visit the FantasyLabs news page.
Tonight's impact: Shumpert has missed 10 games this season, mostly due to rest on back-to-backs. The Kings are 4-6 without Shumpert, who seized the starting small forward role three games into the season.
When Shumpert hasn't played this season, Justin Jackson has led the Kings with a FantasyLabs' +4.0 DraftKings Plus/Minus in 28.3 minutes per game. However, his increased playing time has come with Marvin Bagley sidelined and at the expense of Nemanja Bjelica.
Bogdan Bogdanovic has been Shumpert's primary replacement in the starting lineup. In those games, Bogdanovic has averaged 27.32 DraftKings points in 30.1 minutes per game, per the NBA On/Off tool.
When excluding the game coach Dave Joerger benched his starters in a 27-point loss without Shumpert, Bogdanovic has averaged 32.0 DraftKings points in 33.5 minutes per game over six starts.
The Kings have nearly identical neutral Net Ratings whether Bogdanovic or Shumpert starts. Their Offensive and Defensive Ratings have increased when Bogdanovic starts, but with Shumpert, the Kings' effective field goal percentage has improved by 5.1%. The Kings also get into transition more often when Shumpert plays.
Although the Pistons have allowed the second-highest frequency of transition opportunities, they've limited opponents to 11.6 points per game on fastbreaks — the fifth-lowest mark this season. That number jumps to 13.3 fastbreak points allowed on the road and 12.8 on zero days rest (they're on a back-to-back tonight).
The Kings have averaged a league-high 22.7 fastbreak points per game this season, per NBA.com, but in three games against teams in the top five in limiting fastbreak points per game, the Kings recorded just 14, 12, and 19 fastbreak points and went 0-3.
In even better news for Pistons backers, Blake Griffin voiced concerns following their loss Wednesday:
"(The frustration) is always high after a loss — coming in with a performance like that, especially when you need wins. One through 12, the energy just wasn’t there. We have to figure that out. We did a poor job managing this trip so far."
Pistons coach Dwane Casey added:
"[I'm] disappointed that we didn’t get back when we had a chance in the halfcourt. Easy buckets and when a guy’s in the corner, you have to get back. It’s not just a one-night thing — that’s an every-night thing."
While the Pistons' strengths clash with those of the Kings, Sacramento has the rest advantage. Additionally, the Pistons are one of the worst teams at defending the rim and paint this season; they've allowed 57.6 points per game in the paint through five January games.
