It feels like the Sixth Man of the Year Award has developed a prototype.
Since the 2004-05 season, all but two winners of the award have been shooting guards — that's 17 out of 19 times.
And of those 17 shooting guards, we'd call the vast majority of them "bucket-getters".
Examples: Three-time winners Jamal Crawford and Lou Williams, Tyler Herro, Jordan Clarkson, J.R. Smith, Eric Gordon, Ben Gordon, Jason Terry, Leandro Barbosa and James Harden… the OKC version. Those guys make up 14 of the 17. All that's missing is Mike Miller, Malcolm Brogdon and Manu Ginobili, who don't quite fit this stereotype.
If you're curious, the two non-shooting guard winners were Lamar Odom and Montrez Harrell, who I'd probably also label a "bucket-getter," he's just a center who is 6-foot-7.
Brogdon isn't a microwave scorer like most of who we're talking about, but those are the guys who generally win Sixth Man of the Year. It doesn't mean they're all poor defenders or that they all aren't uber-willing passers if even half-decent ones, but they're primarily known for often getting 20 points, including a couple of highlight-reel plays, and generally not a ton else.
Brogdon winning the award last year was a step away from that. He's an efficient secondary or tertiary ball-handler who can also run your offense, and while he isn't an amazing defender, he's better than and more serviceable than most of who we're talking about.
Last season for the Boston Celtics, he averaged 14.9 points, 4.2 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.0 stocks per game. He was the lowest-scoring Sixth Man of the Year since Gordon in 2015-16.
However, his shooting line for the 2022-23 season was 48/44/87. He had the highest field goal percentage of any winner since Harden in 2011-12, excluding Harrell, more recently, who is a center. Brogdon's 44 percent 3-point shooting is the highest for any Sixth Man of the Year winner ever. And his .161 win shares per 48 minutes is the best tally since Harrell in 19-20; you need to go back to Harden in 11-12 for a guard.
Interestingly enough, Brogdon's WS/48 is 18th all-time among 41 winners, but only Ginobili, Harrell, Harden and Odom rank ahead of winners from the previously utilized 2004 to present-day timeline.Brogdon got 408 points in the voting, including 60 in first place, beating out Immanuel Quickley, Bobby Portis, Norman Powell and Malik Monk, who rounded out the top five in that order.
Brogdon was a Celtic, a team that was the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference, which always helps.
This year, while we have our bucket-getters, it could be another swerve from the often voted-for archetype.
Let's go through some of the genuine contenders.
G Tim Hardaway Jr. (+400)
Dallas Mavericks
Another bucker-getter, who is currently a betting favorite as of this morning, Hardaway Jr. was fifth in voting for this award in the 2020-21 season and is putting up similar production this season. Hardaway's averaging 16.8 points on 42/38/89 shooting. In 2020-21, he got 16.6 points per game on 45/39/82. This level of production will always contend for the award, but this is, quite frankly, easy to outdo.
G/F Austin Reaves (+400)
Los Angeles Lakers
Once considered a favorable pre-season Most Improved Player bet, Reaves is averaging about 14-5-5 on 46/32/85 shooting. Reaves isn't in the bucket-getter archetype, though he can do that, too. But he's a creator who can be an effective secondary ball-handler and playmaker, and has been for the Lakers while primarily playing off the bench. If the Lakers, who are 11-9, could put together more wins, Reaves can tilt the balance of this award in his favor because these awards are voted on and he has an easy pathway to dominate the narrative: Just look at him, then look at his uniform.
G Immanuel Quickley (+400)
New York Knicks
Last year's runner up profiles as another bucket-getter. He's been lauded for his improved perimeter defense under head coach Tom Thibodeau, and he's gone from and inefficient chucker to… well, an efficient one. But the Kentucky alum is enjoying a quality fourth year as he plays for a new contract following the season. Quickley has recorded 15.7 points, 3.2 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game on 43/37/89 shooting. He's got the market boost and was a near-winner last year, but is challenged by perpetual inconsistency. Those are the three favorites right now, but here's the long shot worth your time.
G Chris Paul (+3,000)
Golden State Warriors
Chris Paul winning Sixth Man of the Year as a backup point guard would be the first true floor general to win it since… Darrell Armstrong in 1998-99? It's really just him or Aaron McKie in 2000-01. Paul's 7.3 assists per game would be by far the most for a 6MOTY winner ever, but his 8.9 points on average would be the lowest since Bill Walton's record-low 7.6 points per game in 1985-86 — Paul was born just months before that season began. Paul's only shooting 40/33/93 splits — save for the free throws, those are uncharacteristic lows for CP3, which you think will go up over the course of the season. If anyone is going to be a mold-breaker, being a respected, future Hall of Famer like Paul — on the Golden State Warriors, one of the most cared about franchises in the NBA — certainly helps. One big problem, he's currently injured. Now, he's just day-to-day with a lower leg contusion, but if you sprinkle on him, remember that he's 38 years old and in season 19.
HOW I'D BET: I'm not convinced that voters are pivoting away from bucket-getters, but we have two strong candidates in Reaves and Paul who combine production, narrative and market relevance in their favor to make them worthy plays in the face of that trend.
But for now, no one sitting at +400 tempts me enough at their current price. Reaves and Quickley feel like safe options, but both could become starters because of transactions (Lakers) and or poor performance (Knicks starting Quentin Grimes) so I worry a bit. But I think there's value to each, whereas I'm very skeptical of Hardaway Jr. ending the season as the winner. I don't see it.
As far as longshots? Paul could be worth a sprinkle right now before his shooting percentages go up and his odds shorten. His issue is the Warriors aren't very good right now and he's currently hurt.
You may disagree with how the award is categorized and who the current favorites are, but that doesn't matter — you have to remember that these awards are voted on and what drives voting.
If it were up to me, Portis would've won this at least once by now, but y'all don't vote for centers, just like how y'all don't give non-stars Most Improved Player.
