The past five NBA MVPs have all been international-born players — Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid. Antetokounmpo won the first two after he averaged 27.7 points, 12.5 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game in the 2018-19 season. He followed that up by averaging 29.5 points, 13.6 rebounds and 5.6 assists per game.
Antetokounmpo has finished in the top four of NBA MVP voting in each of the past three seasons and in the top three in each of the past two seasons. He's on track for another top-three finish as most books give him the third-shortest odds to win the award. Yet, it feels like he has very little momentum to actually win the award. Is Antetokounmpo being on slept as a MVP candidate?
Let's dive in.
Giannis Antetokounmpo MVP Odds (+850 at FanDuel)
Antetokounmpo is on pace for the best statistical season of his career. He's averaging 30.8 points, 11.2 rebounds and a career-best 6.4 assists per game. He's also doing that while shooting 61.6% from the field with a true shooting percentage of 65.1%. Antetokounmpo is on pace to become the first player in NBA history to average 30 points with field-goal percentage over 60%. Antetokounmpo ranks in the top 10 in points, rebounds and field-goal percentage. He's also the league leader in points in the fourth quarter.
He certainly has the numbers to make a compelling argument for MVP, but there may be a bit of voter fatigue. However, Jokic is also going for his third MVP in six seasons (a milestone he should have accomplished last season).
Denver is 36-19 and three games back of the top seed in the Western Conference. Oklahoma City is 37-17 and 1.5 games back of Minnesota. The Nuggets and Thunder are only a few games ahead of the Bucks, who are 35-21, but both have a clearer path to the top seed in their conference as the Bucks are eight games back of the Celtics. That means Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have an easier path to adding the "best player on the best team" argument to their MVP campaign.
Additionally, the Bucks haven't always passed the eye test this season. They started 30-13 under Adrian Griffin, but that it wasn't nearly that pretty. Under Doc Rivers, the Bucks have improved defensively, ranking 12th in defensive efficiency over their past 10 games. However, they are just 3-7 in that stretch with losses to the Trail Blazers and Grizzlies.
Changing coaches midseason creates a difficult transition with reduced practice time in today's game and Rivers' tenure began with a 1-4 West Coast trip. With how the Bucks were trending under Griffin, particularly defensively, I doubt they would have fared much differently on that trip without the coaching change. Additionally, things won't get much easier for the Bucks out of the break. On Friday night, the Bucks will be at Minnesota, the top seed in the West. Overall, Milwaukee has the third-toughest remaining schedule in the NBA. While daunting, it also presents an opportunity for Antetokounmpo's MVP candidacy.
The Bucks are 2.5 games back of the Cavaliers for the second seed in the Eastern Conference. The Cavaliers have the 15th-toughest remaining schedule, but are also due for regression after going 19-2 over their past 21 games. Included in the Bucks' schedule is six games against top teams with MVP candidates — the Celtics (Jayson Tatum), Thunder (Gilgeous-Alexander) and Clippers (Kawhi Leonard). Antetokounmpo has already gone 1-1 against Jokic this season.
If the Bucks show improvement in the second half of the season under Rivers, they will have an opportunity to take the second seed from the Cavaliers. That will also important in the postseason as they would have home-court over every team besides the Celtics. It would also give the Bucks with an opportunity to finish with a better record than the Nuggets and Thunder with Antetokounmpo chasing both Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander in the MVP race. If the Bucks finish strong, I believe Antetokounmpo is best positioned — among the current long shots — to challenge and surpass Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander.
Leonard is having a great season on both ends and — most importantly — has been healthy. However, I feel his candidacy is most tied to the Clippers getting the top seed. As great as he's been, it is hard to see him winning MVP averaging 24.1 points, 6.2 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.7 steals with the numbers that Jokic, Gilgeous-Alexander and Antetokounmpo are putting up.
Additionally, I could make the same two-way argument for Gilgeous-Alexander, who is leading the league in steals and is also an All-Defense candidate.
Tatum has a chance to finish the season averaging 27 points, nine rebounds and five assists per game while playing for the team with the best record in the NBA. However, his scoring average is down three points from last season in part because the Celtics added Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday to form the best starting five in the league (with Jaylen Brown and Derrick White).
The one candidate I have yet to mention is Luka Doncic. He certainly has the numbers as he's averaging 34.2 points, 8.8 rebounds and 9.5 assists per game. Following Embiid's injury, Doncic is likely to win the scoring title, ranks third in assists per game and is also second in 3s made per game. However, the Mavericks are far more likely to finish in the Play-In than challenge for one of the top seeds in the Western Conference.
Antetokounmpo has the numbers to be the NBA MVP and his production is on the verge of being historic. If the Bucks can go at least 4-2 in the six aforementioned games against the other MVP candidates, that may strengthen his case. At +850, Antetokounmpo is worth a flier.
