This weekend's NBA Playoffs slate did not disappoint with four thrilling finishes in Sunday's matchups. Monday's slate is light in comparison with a doubleheader on TNT: Bucks vs. Heat (7:30 p.m. ET) and Grizzlies vs. Lakers (10 p.m. ET).
Action Network's NBA writers have four best bets today for the two games on Monday night. Check out their expert picks and predictions for those matchups below.
NBA Odds & Best Bets
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat
Jim Turvey: Brook Lopez absolutely had himself a regular season in 2022-23, and if the Bucks are going to win a title he'll be key. But this has not been the matchup for Lopez.
He is averaging 13.7 points and just 3.7 (!) rebounds per game this series, and his minutes have gone down each subsequent game. In the regular season, he averaged 15.9 points and 6.7 rebounds, but even with Giannis Antetokounmpo out, the Heat have held his numbers incredibly low. A good part of that is due to his matchup with Bam Adebayo, a player who may well end his career with a DPOY or two on his mantle.
As of now, Antetokounmpo is still listed as questionable, but I like this under either way. If Antetokounmpo is back, while that might draw some attention from Brook, it's not going to help his rebounding numbers and overall touches. Plus, it gives the Bucks even more opportunity for Lopez to be on the bench with Antetokounmpo at the five.
If Antetokounmpo doesn't play, the numbers are what they've been so far, and as noted he's only getting less and less playing time. If Jimmy Butler sits, the Heat may look to go full small-ball, run-and-gun, which might not be great news for Lopez's minutes.
The books sniffed this out a tiny bit by lowering from his regular season number of 22.5, but I like under 20.5 to -125, or under 19.5 at plus money.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat
Andrew O'Connor-Watts: The Bucks can’t afford to go down 3-1 in this series and they know it. A loss wouldn’t seal their fate, but it would complicate things.
A win tonight sets up Milwaukee for a win at home and the ability to close out the series in six games instead of seven. And with the grueling nature of the playoffs, the fewer games played the better—especially with Giannis Antetokounmpo’s current injury situation.
We don’t know yet whether or not Antetokounmpo will suit up Monday night, but the Bucks -3.5 opening line has since been bet to -5.5, telling me there’s optimism he’ll play.
The Bucks also fit this PRO System with a 61% cover rate and a 19% ROI:
I like the Bucks down to -6 without Antetokounmpo and -8 with him in. I also have a half-unit play on Milwaukee’s team total over 111.5, which I'd bump to a full unit if the side gets out of reach.
The Bucks are averaging 118.3 points per game against the Heat in seven playoff games since 2020-21 and have cleared 111.5 in their last 15 wins. I like the team total up to 113.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat
Bryan Fonseca: Giannis Antetokounmpo is expected to be available tonight, but I like my chances at hitting Khris Middleton for a 20-point game.
Middleton is really the guy who hurts Miami. He has gone over this prop twice, in Games 1 and 3, respectively, including a 33-point showing to open the series. This season, while dealing with injury, he only appeared in two contests against the Heat — coming off the bench for 17 and 20 minutes, respectively, scoring 12 and 24 despite the limited action, nearly averaging one point per minute.
Last season, he hit 20-plus points in three of four appearances against the Heat. In the 2021 playoffs, he averaged 21.5 points during the Bucks sweep of the Heat on dangerously close to 50/40/90 shooting splits. And even in the 2020 playoffs, where the Heat gentlemen swept the Bucks — who had a healthy Antetokounmpo until he was hurt in Game 4 — Middleton was A. The reason Milwaukee won a game that series, scoring 36 points without Giannis finishing the game, and B. he averaged 25.6 points per game in the series.
Sure, he has his occasional duds against the Heat, but for whatever reason, the Heat have historically had a tougher team guarding the Bucks without Giannis than with. Middleton leads the unpredictability of that element, which may be on display tonight if Giannis misses another game.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Brandon Anderson: I liked the Lakers coming into this series because they had such a serious size advantage with Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke missing for Memphis. There's still a clear advantage there, but the Grizzlies have started to find at least a partial answer, and his name is Xavier Tillman Sr.
Tillman played only 22 minutes in Game 1 but had a monster Game 2 to help lead the Grizzlies to victory in his 32 minutes on the court, then played 39 in Game 3. Over that same stretch, Memphis's third big man Santi Aldama has dropped from 24 minutes in Game 1 to 14 and then 11 minutes without a real role in this series.
Tillman's strength and boundless energy has earned him a serious role in this series, and if he's on the court, he's going to get rebounds. He had 13 and 12 rebounds these last two games against the Lakers, with nine combined offensive rebounds.
For his career, Tillman is averaging 13.6 points and 9.6 rebounds in 16 games with at least 30 minutes played. He's had at least nine boards in 12 of those 16, a 75% hit rate on this plus-money line. I'm delighted to get this at plus money.
You might also sprinkle double-double at +350 at FanDuel. The points are not always there for Tillman, but he does have a double-double in six of those 16 games with 30+ minutes, including Game 2. That's a 37.5% hit rate vs implied 22.2% here. If you prefer just rebounds, you can play 13+ at +750 at DraftKings. Let's just hope Tillman stays out of foul trouble and keeps banging bodies down low.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Austin Wang: I gave a more detailed breakdown for this game in Monday's Grizzlies vs Lakers Game 4 betting guide. I figured the Grizzlies would struggle in Game 3 and be in a letdown spot while reintegrating Morant back into the lineup. That was certainly the case, as they were down 35-9 after the first quarter.
However, he looked amazing when the Grizzlies rallied in the fourth quarter. The effort fell short, but I expect them to pick up where they left off.
I like the desperate Grizzlies to come out strong to make up for a poor start in Game 3. I expect Morant to continue his excellent play from the fourth quarter on Saturday to keep his team from falling to a 3-1 deficit.
The Grizzlies have the best 1Q ATS record in the league at 51-33-1. I don't trust the Grizzlies bench, so I'll be backing them early in Game 4.
