Thursday's NBA Playoff games are critical with two teams looking to punch their tickets to the Conference finals and two others looking to force a Game 7. Elimination games are typically when we see stars either shine or wilt under the spotlight and Thursday's ESPN doubleheader — Celtics vs. 76ers (7:30 p.m. ET) and Nuggets vs. Suns (10 p.m. ET) — sets up as the perfect stage to find out who can stand the pressure.
Action Network's NBA crew has stepped up to the pressure for the entire postseason and has seven best bets today, including bets on one side of the spread in the early game, the totals and moneyline in the late game and a ton player of props for Thursday's Game 6 matchups. Read on for their expert picks and predictions below.
NBA Odds & Best Bets
Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Jacob McKenna: I broke this game down in more detail in the Celtics-Sixers betting guide (you can read that here), but I think the 76ers are the right side here. The key in this is going to be who can hit their 3s. We've seen both teams struggle offensively when the 3 isn't dropping, but Boston continues to trend in the wrong direction in that regard.
Boston shot 37.7% from deep in Games 1 through 3, but that percentage dropped to 35.4% across Games 4 and 5. The opposite is true for the 76ers. Philadelphia shot 37.1% from beyond the arc in the first three games, but increased that to 39.1% in the past two.
Fatigue may also play a slight factor here. Boston has played 11 postseason games (tied with Golden State for the most in these playoffs), while Philadelphia has played nine. Philadelphia also had eight days of rest in between Rounds 1 and 2. Boston had three.
I think the 3-point shooting trends will be a much larger factor than fatigue, but both will play a role as this series comes to a close. As a result, I like Philadelphia to cover the spread and would play it down to 1.5.
Pick: 76ers +2.5 |
Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Brandon Anderson: I actually looked up these odds initially looking to bet Malcolm Brogdon. Believe it or not, he's actually the series leader in 3s right now with 17 makes on 32 attempts, a scorching 53%.
At +350 as the series leader with potentially only one game left, there does appear to be some value on Brogdon. But he saw his lowest volume game of the series in Game 5, making just 1-of-2 attempts, and I found an even better bet on the board: Tyrese Maxey.
Maxey was the story in Game 5, scoring 30 points with 6-of-12 from deep. Both of those numbers are significant. The six makes brings Maxey to 14 for the series, behind only Brogdon's 17 and James Harden's 16.
The 12 attempts are just as meaningful. Maxey now leads the series in 3-point attempts at 40, an even eight per game. This volume uptick is nothing new. Over the past 21 games dating back to the regular season, Maxey is making 3.5 treys per game on 7.5 attempts, up from 2.4-on-5.9 before that.
I like how this sets up for us. Philly has scored big in wins and struggled to score in losses. If they lose Game 6, we get two shots on the highest volume shooter closing the gap at the top. If they win we only get one chance, but it probably means another big night from Maxey in a closeout effort.
This number is too long. I'll take my chances at +900 to lead the series in 3s.
Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Bryan Fonseca: Who wins? Who knows!
If you recall, nearly one year ago the Celtics looked like they were down and out against the Milwaukee Bucks in this same situation, and they smothered their way to a 108-95 road stunner where Jayson Tatum had 46 points.
The Celtics are favorites going into this game, they should've won Game 4 — and a big part of why is Jaylen Brown. He has been steady scoring 23-25 points in all five games and he's hit three or more 3-pointers in all but one game this series. In fact, he's hit this over in seven of his past eight games.
Even if Brown doesn't finally have a four-quarter offensive explosion in this series as he did with three consecutive 30-point games to finish the Hawks series, he should get this over once again.
Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns
Brandon Anderson: Game 5 went exactly according to script for the Nuggets and for us as bettors after smashing Denver in a great home rest advantage spot. Those advantages are mostly gone now with the series headed back to Phoenix, though Kevin Durant and Devin Booker still managed to play 41 minutes even in a blowout loss.
The Suns are perfect at home in this series and playing for their season, but have they been convincing? Booker looked into the face of God for two games in Phoenix, barely missed a shot, got a ton of help from Durant and poor games from the Nuggets role players, and still the Nuggets had a chance to tie in the final minute of both games.
The Nuggets are live to win Game 6 on the road and end the Suns' season. If they do, it'll surely be because of another monster game from Nikola Jokic. Jokic has at least 13 rebounds in all but one game this series, and he's had double-digit assists in each of the past three games, averaging 37/11/13 over that stretch. He's doing everything and then some, and he'll have to do it again in heavy minutes if Denver wants to close this out on the road.
This is a tricky spot. We don't know if Jamal Murray or Booker will struggle with those Game 5 ankle injuries. We do know Jokic will play again, be awesome, and give the Nuggets a chance. Give me a 20-point Jokic triple-double in a win - something he's done already three times these playoffs.
Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns
Andrew O'Connor-Watts: Devin Booker has been incredible, looking like one of the best players of the postseason. He’s averaging 35.9 points per game on a mind-boggling 66.7% Effective Field Goal Percentage — by far the highest for a player with over 300 minutes played (Stephen Curry is second with 57.6% per Cleaning the Glass).
Booker’s scoring has been a bellwether for the Suns' success these playoffs. He’s cleared 31.5 points in five of their six wins and in four of their five home games.
I don’t have a strong read on the side for this game, but I have a slight lean to the Suns at home with their backs against the wall. Booker’s points prop is a good way to play the Phoenix lean, while leaving the door open for a Denver win as he could still clear this number in a loss.
I bet this at 31.5 and would play it to 32.5.
Alternatively, if you like the Suns tonight, I suggest a same-game parlay with Phoenix moneyline since the results are correlated. That SGP pays out +169 at FanDuel. And if you want to get even crazier, you could add in Kevin Durant over 30.5 points which pays out +364. If they’re going to beat this Nuggets team, the Suns need everything from their two superstars.
Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns
Matt Moore: I wrote about multiple bets that I like for this one in my Game 6 betting column — a player prop and bet on the moneyline — but I'm also playing the under. Historically that's the move, and the most likely scenario for a Nuggets win is a slow, grind-it-out affair with the Suns unable to keep up the fast break pressure they enjoyed in Games 3 and 4, and the most likely scenario for a Suns win is Denver shooting horribly on the road.
Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns
Chris Baker: I tackled this game in the Nuggets-Suns betting guide (you can read that here), but I think there's clear value on the road team here. Outside of two historic shooting performances from Devin Booker, the Nuggets have consistently gotten cleaner looks and their offense has many more weapons to go to than the Suns.
Nikola Jokic has established himself as the best player in the world and in Game 5 he looked like he was completely unwilling to lose from the jump. When Jokic plays with that level of assertiveness the Nuggets are nearly unbeatable in my opinion and I expect that same level of urgency from him tonight.
The Nuggets have proven to be the fundamentally better team through five games. I like the value on them to close it out on the road as the underdogs and I'd keep an eye on the Action Network NBA odds page as this price varies from book to book..
Pick: Nuggets Moneyline (+128) |
