The NBA Playoffs roll on Sunday with a pair of Game 4s on the slate, and we have you covered with NBA picks today.
In the early matchup we get Celtics vs. 76ers (3:30 p.m. ET on ABC) then Nuggets vs. Suns in the evening (8 p.m. ET on TNT), with both home teams are looking tie up their respective series at 2-2.
Our Action Network analysts are targeting four best bets today, including player props in both games, a spread pick and moneyline bet. Read on for their in-depth analysis and expert picks for Celtics vs. 76ers and Nuggets vs. Suns.
NBA Odds & Best Bets
Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Bryan Fonseca: De'Anthony Melton had four steals and a block last game.
He's gotten 2+ stocks in four of his last six games, all of which have been in the playoffs. He's one of the better perimeter defenders in the league, and if the Sixers are going to pull off what would be a minor upset, Melton might need to be heavily involved on defense.
Not sure I predict a 76ers victory, but I think they'll put up a fight, and Melton will be part of that. Melton's had a +2.5 defensive box plus-minus in the playoffs (was 1.6 in the regular season) and has a team-high +20.2 on/off in the playoffs. The next closest, Paul Reed, is +10.6.
Expect big minutes from Melton, 25 minutes per game in the post-season, which gives you ample opportunity for this over.
Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Andrew O'Connor-Watts: My Friday best bet was the on the Celtics first half moneyline in Game 3 and I’m going back to the well for Game 4, but I’ll lay the points with Boston this time.
What I like about the first half play is that it’s independent of the final result. This is a must-win game for the Sixers, but they’ve played their best basketball in the second half this season. It’s not just that they’re better in the second half, they’re actually bad in the first half despite their good play overall. At home, the Sixers are 27-17 against the spread but just 18-25-1 in the first half.
Even before this season, slow starts have been an issue for Philadelphia, and that includes the playoffs when they’ve needed wins most. Since the bubble season, Philadelphia is 15-19-1 ATS in the first half and 4-8-1 after a loss. Meanwhile, Boston is 33-23 overall and 15-8 after a win according to Bet Labs. The Celtics have also won the closer first-half contests. In playoff games with a spread range of -4 to +4, the Celtics are 29-17 ATS.
I took the Celtics -1 1H and would take them to -2.
Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns
Chris Baker: The Suns stole game three on the back of a herculean 47 point effort from Devin Booker. Booker shot 20-of-25 from the floor and also contributed 9 assists. Kevin Durant also contributed 39 points with the duo ultimately combining for 86 points and yet the Suns were still losing the game late in the third quarter.
It didn’t feel like anything substantive changed for the Suns outside of which role players got minutes. Offensively, they still took a staggering 65% of their shots from mid-range, which actually represents a significant increase from their first two games where they hovered around the 50% mark. Their transition offense did massively improve with Cam Payne on the floor but it felt like that was an area the Nuggets could clean up with a little more urgency which should be present in game four.
Defensively, the suns were giving up tons of quality open threes but the Nuggets couldn’t capitalize all game. They shot just 34% from three and overall shot just 50% effectively from the field. Denver has been shooting 55% effectively from the field in the playoffs and led the league at 57.9% during the regular season. Game 3 was an outlier poor shooting night from their role players.
Despite Denver’s generally lackadaisical performance they still had a good chance to win late. I think we see more urgency from Denver in game four and that should give them a pretty decent chance to win based on the shot profiles we have seen from both teams through three games.
If Murray, Michael Porter Jr, and Aaron Gordon shoot at their averages I expect Denver to win comfortably and head home to Denver up 3-1 with a chance to close this one out in Game 5.
Pick: Nuggets Moneyline |
Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns
O'Connor-Watts:I wrote about this matchup in the Nuggets vs Suns betting guide and have several bets for Game 4.
The Suns are still figuring out the rotations beyond their top four guys, so any role player props could be a big risk. I do like some Booker props, specifically his 3-point line, which is set at 2.5 at most books. He only took one 3-pointer in Game 1, but the Suns have made a concerted effort to shoot more from deep since.
Booker has attempted eight in each of the past two games and made four and five in Games 2 and 3. I’ll take the over 2.5 for a half-unit and over 3.5 (+190) to win a half-unit.
Pick: Devin Booker Over 2.5 3-Pointers |
Pick: Booker Over 3.5 3-Pointers |
