The NBA Play-In Tournament tips Tuesday night with a doubleheader on TNT: Hawks vs. Heat (7:30 p.m. ET) and Timberwolves vs. Lakers (10 p.m. ET). The winners of tonight's matchups will secure the No. 7 seed in the playoffs for their respective conferences, while the losers of tonight's games will play in a single-elimination matchup Friday.
Our NBA analysts are up to the task for these must-win games and have seven best bets today, including a ton of player props. Read on for their expert picks for Tuesday's Play-In games.
NBA Odds & Picks
Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat
Alex Hinton: Jimmy Butler closed out the regular season by making a 3-pointer in five of his last 10 games. The Hawks allowed the eighth-fewest 3s (11.9) per game, but they ranked 22nd in Defensive Rating in the regular season. Butler made one 3-pointer in two of three games against the Hawks this season, but he takes his game to another level in the playoffs.
Last postseason, Butler averaged 27.4 points per game and very nearly willed Miami into the NBA Finals for the second time in three years. In 17 postseason games, he made one 3-pointer in 14 games. He made one 3-pointer in all four games against Atlanta in last year's first round matchup.
Butler averaged 1.4 3s on 4.8 attempts in last year's postseason. In the regular season, he averaged 0.6 3s on 1.7 attempts. In general, Butler's volume goes up in the playoffs. Last year, he averaged nearly five more field goal attempts per game in the playoffs compared to the regular season despite playing just four more minutes per game. I expect similar volume from Butler tonight and at least one 3-point make.
I grabbed this line at -115 and would play it up to -135.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat
Bryan Fonseca: The best part of love is when you go out and find exactly what you're looking for.
And as soon as the lines came out for Heat vs. Hawks, it was love at first sight.
My eyes lit up with joy when seeing Trae Young's points prop at a hefty 24.5 and I couldn't wait to bang that under.
By any metric you'd prefer to use, Young struggles against the Heat with regularity. It doesn't matter if it's this past regular season or in last year's playoffs. (Remember when people were saying Young was the best player in the series?!)
Young averaged 15.4 points on 32% shooting from the field and 18% shooting from three against the Heat in last year's playoffs. Not having PJ Tucker could mean a slightly better outcome from Young, but even this season — while better than that — he's crossed 24 points against Miami just once.
Additionally, don't be surprised if you see Haywood Highsmith — defensively utilized as a Tucker facsimile — guarding Young in spots, along with Gabe Vincent and Caleb Martin and Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo and potentially Victor Oladipo of he plays. There are a ton of options here.
If this doesn't cash, it would likely be because Young was bailed out by questionable officiating and shot 8-of-23 but aided by a 10 of 12 free throw line performance, or he just finally caught fire. It's called gambling for a reason. But history suggests we shouldn't see that.
Play this under to your heart's content.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat
Brandon Anderson: Saddiq Bey was a sneaky pickup for the Hawks at the trade deadline, and he's been paying dividends for the team down the stretch.
Before a meaningless regular season finale, Bey had averaged 14 PPG on 5.8 3-point attempts a game over his past 10 games. He's become the exact sort of floor-spacing wing this team has been lacking.
Against Miami, that's been especially helpful. Bey played 32-plus minutes in both his Hawks games against the Heat and scored 19.5 PPG, thanks largely to his 7-of-13 shooting behind the arc. The Heat defense is designed to take away 2s and force guys like Bey to beat them on 3s, and he's been bombing away and should have his chances.
This line feels a trey too low at 9.5, and at near even odds to boot. I'll play the over 9.5, and I'm compelled to ride the escalator and play 15+ points too (+440 on FanDuel). He hit that number in five of those last 10 and also both games against Miami.
Points will be hard to come by in this one, but Trae Young probably won't be the answer, so maybe Bey will be.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Alex Hinton: In his third season, Anthony Edwards averaged career-highs in both rebounds (5.8) and assists (4.4). Combined he averaged 10.2 rebounds + assists in the regular season, which would go under this line. He also went under this line in seven of his last 10 games. However, due to developments in a wild regular season finale, Minnesota will need a bit more from its young star.
While heading into the tunnel, Jaden McDaniels punched a wall in frustration and suffered a fractured hand. Moments later, a verbal altercation between Rudy Gobert and Kyle Anderson resulted in Gobert throwing a punch at Anderson. Gobert will serve a one-game suspension tonight.
Without McDaniels and Gobert, Minnesota will be without about 16 rebounds per game. Given that Edwards is one of the better rebounding guards in the league, I would expect him to grab some of them. You can take his rebounds (7.5) if you’d prefer, however Edwards is a good bet to facilitate as well.
Additionally, in his last 10 games without Rudy Gobert, he has gone over this line in seven of those games. Edwards will be facing a Lakers team that ranked fourth in pace in the regular season. While the game does slow down with the playoffs on the line, the pace in this game should give Edwards a few extra possessions to record 12 rebounds and assists.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Joe Dellera: Austin Reaves has been instrumental to the Lakers’ success as they made their push for the Postseason. He’s had excellent rapport with LeBron James, D’Angelo Russell, and especially Anthony Davis as a primary or secondary facilitator.
Today, his assists prop is set at 3.5 (-165) or 4.5 (+135) and both are viable plays. While (-165) is more juice than some like to lay, the implied odds of that line are 62.26% and he’s exceeded 3.5 assists in 16 of his last 20 games (80%). At (+135) for 4.5 assists, the implied odds are just 42.5%. He’s exceeded 4.5 assists in 14 of his last 20 (70%) but 8 of his last 10 (80%).
With both Rudy Gobert (suspension) and Jalen McDaniels (fractured hand) missing today, the Wolves’ defense should suffer and the two-man game Reaves has with Anthony Davis should excel in tonight’s matchup.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Chris Baker: Rudy Gobert has a -5.7 defensive rating swing (91st percentile) and a -6.1 offensive rating swing (16th percentile). The Timberwolves offense gets significantly better with him off and the defense gets worse when he is off. Gobert is suspended for this one so expect the Wolves to be forced to go small and space the floor with five shooters.
Rangy wing-defender Jaden McDaniels will also be out tonight after breaking his hand in a fist-fight with a wall. McDaniels has been elite wing-defender all season so his absence will also harm this Wolves defense. The Timberwolves have a defensive rating of 118.2 (24th percentile) with both Gobert and McDaniels off the floor this season. They also are allowing opponents to shoot 39.4% of their looks at the rim (fifth percentile), and allowing them to convert on 69.7% of these rim attempts (18th percentile). This is a recipe for disaster against a Lakers offense that ranks second in the NBA in rim rate.
Perhaps, the biggest knock against these Timberwolves lineups for this matchup is the fact that they rank in the 1st percentile of FT rate allowed on defense (30.9). The Lakers offensive free throw edge has been well-documented over the past few weeks, and on the season they rank third in Free-Throw Rate (23.0). A final edge for this Lakers offense comes in transition where they rank seventh in rate and offensive rating. The Wolves transition defense ranks in the 17th percentile of defensive rating without Gobert/McDaniels.
Finally, this Lakers offense has been elite when they roll out these Reaves/D’lo/LeBron lineups. With these three on the floor, the Lakers have a remarkable 130.6 offensive rating across 216 possessions. Focusing on the opposite side of the ball, we should see the Timberwolves offensive efficiency increase as they go smaller and are able to get up more 3s. This is an ideal scenario for the Wolves offense as they get to lean into the weakness of the Lakers defense. The Lakers have struggled to defend the 3-point line, ranking 22nd in three point attempt rate allowed. Expect the Timberwolves to get up plenty of quality 3s tonight.
Ultimately, I believe this number isn’t fully accounting for the absence of Gobert/McDaniels and I view this Lakers defense as being slightly underrated. I’ll take a shot on over 229.5 in a game I expect to be played small and fast. Play this up to 232.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Brandon Anderson:This is just the wrong matchup at the wrong time for Minnesota.
Remember that early February trade involving both of these teams? The Lakers are sixth in Net Rating since then, including second in Defensive Rating, while the Timberwolves are all the way down at 22nd Net Rating, effectively ahead of only the eight teams purposely trying to lose.
The trade remade the Lakers into a great defensive team and also solved their rebounding issues, turning them into a top 10 unit that should terrorize Minnesota Tuesday night. The Wolves are a bottom five rebounding team anyway and now missing Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid. They'll also be without Jaden McDaniels to defend LeBron James, and don't forget how much Minnesota loves to foul and how adept the Lakers are at getting to the line … perhaps with a little help from a league that would definitely love to see LA in the playoffs in a big home game? Can't hurt.
And don't forget the guys the Lakers got in that trade: D'Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Malik Beasley. Did somebody say revenge spot? The Wolves basically kicked DLo to the curb and threw the other two in to the Gobert trade, and now Vando is dominating the glass and has sparked the defense and the other two should find easy shots with Minnesota's two best defenders missing.
The Lakers won 22 games in a row against the Wolves about a decade ago. Los Angeles has long owned this franchise. Heck, they literally stole their team, their name, and a handful of championship banners. Why not grab a play-in banner too?
