The NBA Playoffs roll on Tuesday with a bi-coastal doubleheader on the schedule featuring Heat vs Knicks Game 2 (7:30 p.m. ET) and Lakers vs Warriors Game 1 (10 p.m. ET) on TNT. The Knicks are looking to bounce back after their first home loss this postseason and avoid an 0-2 hole heading to Miami. The Lakers are rested up for the most anticipated series of the playoffs so far against the Warriors who showed their championship mettle in Game 7 Sunday.
It should be an awesome night of basketball and Action Network's analysts are ready to wager with four best bets today, including a pair of player props on role players. The give their in-depth analysis and expert picks for Tuesday's NBA Playoff slate below.
NBA Odds & Best Bets
Miami Heat vs. New York Knicks
Andrew O'Connor-Watts: This is one of those spots where the season-long spread trends line up with the situation. The Knicks are coming off a tough home loss to the Miami Heat and are at risk of letting the series completely slip away if they don’t get a win Tuesday night.
I would feel fine betting on New York for the full game since they desperately need the win, but I’d rather isolate this play to the first 24 minutes of action. Despite covering the first half line fairly easily in Game 1, the Knicks were completely outclassed by the Heat in the second half. Let’s avoid a repeat of that.
The Knicks were the best first half team all season (55-31-2 ATS, 64%), but they were even better after a loss (24-11-1 ATS, 69%). Jimmy Butler, Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle are all listed as questionable, and while I try not to be in the business of doubting Butler’s competitive willpower, I expect him to sit after reports came out Monday that his ankle had swollen to the size of a baseball.
Brunson’s injury is a bit of a surprise and doesn’t bode well, but I expect him to suit up in a must-win game. Expect some adjustments from Tom Thibodeau and take the Knicks first half line down to -4.5.
Miami Heat vs. New York Knicks
Bryan Fonseca: I thought about betting Max Strus for 3-pointers, Bam Adebayo over 3.5 assists, Mitchell Robinson over 6.5 points — none spoke to me quite like this.
(Surely, they'll all hit and this won't, right?)
If there's one dude who will be jacking shots with or without Jimmy Butler, it's Gabe Vincent. He's getting many of the pull-ups that Tyler Herro, and to a lesser degree Victor Oladipo, would've had in these playoffs. Kyle Lowry is firmly the back-up point guard, thriving in the role in Game 1, and the Heat had played Vincent and Lowry together plenty of times.
Vincent had back-to-back 20-point games, shooting 12 3s in each. That likely won't always happen tonight. But Vincent over 13.5 points, spiritually, should be Butler-proof and should be Lowry-proof. He's gone over this in four of his past six, and so long as he is getting em up — damn it, he'll make sure he does — you should (keyword: should) get home here.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Golden State Warriors
Brandon Anderson: I'm aware of the trends fading teams in Game 1s coming off a Game 7. They're meaningful, but trends aren't meant to be followed blindly every time and this one isn't as strong when the team on short rest is at home or when the rested team is such a low seed.
Besides, I've got two other trends that are a bullseye for this game: LeBron James is 4-14 SU in road Game 1s, and the Warriors are 21-4 in Game 1s since Steve Kerr took over.
For James, it's about feeling opponents out early. His assist numbers are up in Game 1s with scoring down, trying to get his teammates going. His teams are 10-8 in those series, despite the many Game 1 losses. He treats these underdog matchups like a marathon, not a sprint.
James is 0-4 in Game 1s against the Warriors, much like the rest of the NBA. Golden State is 19-2 in home Game 1s. They won those four matchups against James' teams by 8, 11, 22, and 10, despite a couple monster games by The King.
The Warriors offense is unlike any other. The Lakers just spent two weeks playing a mediocre Grizzlies offense missing multiple weapons that couldn't shoot to save its life. It will like whiplash suddenly chasing shooters endlessly around screens, diving on back cuts, and relocating for 3s. Anthony Davis is playing great, but defense is a weak link game and the Lakers have a ton of weak link guys like D'Angelo Russell and Dennis Schroder that this Warriors offense is built to put in the blender.
History tells us James feels opponents out early as an underdog and that the Warriors offense takes awhile for opponents to adjust to defensively. We back the Warriors in Game 1s and fade LeBron in road Game 1s.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Golden State Warriors
Andrew O'Connor-Watts: I wrote up three bets that I like in the Lakers vs Warriors Game 1 betting guide (you can find those here), but I’m focused on a rebound prop on the Lakers side as they’ve won the rebounding battle in all four meetings this season.
Jarred Vanderbilt has averaged 6.8 boards against the Warriors in his career, but in the six games against them this season (three with the Jazz and three with the Lakers) he’s averaging 8.8 and has cleared eight rebounds in five of the six games.
I like his rebounds prop over and I’ll play some alt-rebounds as well.
