On Sunday we'll see the beginning of one series and the end of another (and maybe even a dynasty).
Today's NBA slate opens with Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals matchup between the Heat and Knicks (1 p.m. ET on ABC), followed by the conclusion of what has been the most entertaining series of Round 1 between the Warriors and Kings (3:30 p.m. ET on ABC).
Action Network's NBA crew has six best bets today for Sunday's doubleheader of NBA Playoff games, including player props, totals and spread bets for both games. Read on for their expert picks and predictions for today's playoff slate.
NBA Odds & Best Bets
Miami Heat vs. New York Knicks
Malik Smith: All season long, the Knicks have been a force in the first half.
According to Bet Labs, they had the best record against the spread in the first half in the NBA (51-30-1, 63%), the second-best ATS record in the first half at home (26-14-1, 65%), the third-best ATS record in the first half as a favorite (24-16, 60%) and the best ATS record in the first half against teams .500 or better (31-12-1, 72%).
The Knicks haven't played since Wednesday night and, as you might imagine, they're pretty good when playing on extra rest too — 9-4 ATS in the first half, third-best in the Association.
The Heat had the fourth-worst ATS record in the first half in the NBA in the regular season and even in their amazing first round run to beating the Milwaukee Bucks, the Heat trailed at the half in all but two of the games before making unreal comebacks. The Knicks, meanwhile are 4-1 ATS in the first half this postseason and only trailed on the road in Game 2, which got out of hand quickly in the second quarter.
They will be playing in the second round of the NBA Playoffs for the first time since 2013 (#Knickstape) and if you thought the Garden faithful were loud for the series against the Cavaliers, I can assure you this matchup will be even more energetic.
I like the Knicks here up to -3.
Miami Heat vs. New York Knicks
Bryan Fonseca: Bam Adebayo says his hamstring is feeling a bit better, though I don't expect him to be 100% — which he likely still won't be — because a hamstring is tricky and needs legitimate rest.
That said, as part of his workload, he's one of the team's foremost playmakers, and he hit over 3.5 assists in three of the five games against the Milwaukee Bucks. He had 10 in the close out when head coach Erik Spoelstra functionally played him at point guard to counter Brook Lopez's deep drop, and took over the game.
Mitchell Robinson will be bothersome, but he won't drop as far as Lopez on defense, meaning Bam won't just hit shooters coming around screens on the wings when not pulling mid-range jumpers, but he'll have some driving lanes as well. Robinson is one of the league's best shot-blockers and the Knicks aren't afraid to help on drives.
Adebayo will have openings to kick to shooters in the corners, not just wings, and hit over this prop. He averaged 3.2 dimes in the regular season and is at 5.0 in the playoffs. He has more ball-handling duties without Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo, and with Jimmy Butler likely to see more pressure from the Knicks than he did against the Bucks, we should see Bam creating as well.
Miami Heat vs. New York Knicks
Chris Baker: I discussed this in the betting preview for this matchup (you can read that here), but a lot of people have talked about this series being a 90s throwback in terms of physicality and defense. I think a case can be made for the over here.
The Knicks defense is almost certainly overrated right now after playing a Cavs offense that couldn’t hit a wide-open 3-pointer for the entire series.
These teams averaged 218 PPG combined in the regular season and I expect these defenses to take some time getting acclimated to the opposing offenses. Both of these defenses ranked bottom-five in opponent 3-point attempt rate allowed while both offenses ranked top-12 in offensive 3-point attempt rate.
We also have the potential return of Quentin Grimes and Julius Randle to the lineup, which should only bolster the Knicks half-court offense. I expect positive regression from this Knicks offense and I think the Heat have enough shooters to help us clear this low total.
I took the over at 206.5, but I would play this up to 208.
Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings
Baker: I’ll operate under the assumption that Steve Kerr will finally play his best players consistent minutes together. The Warriors have consistently won their minutes this season against the Kings in which they play their starters and that has been no different in this series. Their season-long starting five of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, and Kevon Looney has a +19.4 net-rating in the series. The Warriors are +6.2 net-rating with Curry on the floor overall in this series.
During the regular season Curry, Green, Thompson, and Looney all had net-rating above +15.0 in four games against the Kings. The Warriors starters have consistently proven that they are better than the Kings and I expect the Warriors to finally play their best players north of 40+ minutes in a must-win game 7.
The addition of Gary Payton II to the lineup has massively boosted their defensive ceiling, as he has done an outstanding job of limiting Fox in my opinion. If Payton and Wiggins can limit Fox the Warriors will win this game. We’ve already seen that Looney and Green are capable of shutting down Domantas Sabonis.
Ultimately, the Warriors are the better team when they play their starters and they have been all year. The Warriors starting 5 mentioned above was a +22.1 across 705 regular season possessions, posting an unbelievable 128.5 offensive rating and a defensive rating of 106.4.
The Kings starting five of Fox, Barnes, Murray, Huerter, and Sabonis was a +3.7 across 1898 possessions during the regular season. The Warriors starters have been consistently better and if you are handicapping a game seven that should be the most important factor as we should expect to see an increase in starter minutes.
Back the Warriors as they have been a consistently better team when Kerr decides to actually play his starters. Play this up to -2.5.
Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings
Matt Moore: I've got more picks on this matchup, which you can find in my Warriors-Kings article.
In Game 7s, games go under 61.4% of the time since 2003, 58.8% since 2013 and 70.6% since 2018, according to Bet Labs.
The total for this game dropped to 229.5 from the Game 6 total of 236.5. When the total is three points lower than Game 6, the under is 22-12 (35%). When it's five points lower, the under is 12-2 (85%).
In Warriors games beyond Game 5 in the Kerr era, the under is 8-6.
If the Kings win this game, it's because the Warriors' offense falls to pieces. If the Warriors win, it's because their defense throttled the Kings, and they didn't turn the ball over.
I'll take the historical trend and believe the market is correct on the adjustment. I'll play the under.
Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings
Jim Turvey: I covered this matchup in the Warriors vs Kings betting guide, including another bet that I'm targeting.
Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Stephen Curry — have been in just four elimination games during the Steve Kerr Era.
In fact, Thompson has been in only three because he was not around for the Game 6 loss in the 2019 Finals. The Warriors are 2-2 in those games
All four of those games are easily called to mind, but the patterns from them maybe less so. It's a tiny sample, but the theme of Green stepping up to the plate is notable. He averages 16.0 points, 14.0 rebounds and 7.8 assists per game in those elimination games, which is way up from his overall playoff averages of 12.4 points, 9.5 rebounds and 6.8 assists. Even before he was the Draymond we all know today, he tallied 24 points, seven rebounds and three assists in a first-round Game 7 loss in 2014.
But as Chris Paul knows, this ain't 2014 anymore, and Green's last one of these types of games was in 2018. Also, we're talking about a tiny sample.
Still, I like targeting Green's Points + Rebounds + Assists (PRA) prop. In the Warriors' two Game 6 closeout games last season, he averaged 13.0 points, 13.5 rebounds and 8.0 assists. Of course, he's coming off a Game 6 closeout in which he took a grand total of two shots, but we've seen Green vacillate wildly in terms of production before.
