We said it in yesterday's article, elimination games are typically when we see stars either shine or wilt under the spotlight. That played out in both games Thursday: Jayson Tatum displayed some late heroics and the Phoenix Suns fell apart after nine minutes.
Friday's matchups have the same stakes featuring a pair of must-win Game 6s — Knicks vs. Heat (7:30 p.m. ET) and Warriors vs. Lakers (10 p.m. ET) on ESPN — with four teams that are starting to run out of adjustments as injuries pile up.
Action Network’s NBA analysts have five best bets today, including a same game parlay, plus two bets on the spread and total in each game. Read on for their expert picks and predictions below.
NBA Odds & Best Bets
New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat
Bryan Fonseca: I had Heat in six to start the series, and I'm sticking to it.
Julius Randle, where do we begin …
Credit to him, he finally shot 40% in a playoff game this year after six failed tries. He finally got to at least 45%, which he's done each of the last two games, in his now 15-game playoff career.
I'm not sure it was picked up on the broadcast, but while covering Game 5 at Madison Square Garden, the crowd gave Randle a mixed reaction upon returning amid a second-quarter run that came with him off the floor.
The counting numbers might tell you otherwise, but he hasn't had a great series, and although he's hit this over twice in two games, expect the Heat to make him work for it and dare Randle to beat them. He has nothing when isolated onto Bam Adebayo except a step-back prayer 3-pointer that occasionally hits.
And historically, the lower seed up 3-2 closes out at home, which usually follows a Game 5 road loss. Conventional wisdom isn't fool proof, but we'll subscribe to it tonight, Scott Foster or Tony Brothers be damned.
Pick: Heat ML + Randle u23.5 PTS Parlay (+153) |
New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat
Brandon Anderson: I guess we're still doing this series?
The Knicks have two wins this series. One of them came with Jimmy Butler in street clothes. The Knicks hit 40% of their 3s, mashed the offensive glass, got to the line 30 times and barely got over the line. With no Butler.
The other win came Game 5. New York hit 38% of its 3s and finished +16 in rebounding and +21 on free throw attempts. Both Jalen Brunson and Quentin Grimes played literally ever second, the latter getting hurt late. They got a good game from RJ Barrett, a huge offensive rebounding night from their centers, and a good bench push, and the Heat shot 30% on 3s. New York barely got over the line again, at home, doing everything they needed to do, in a must-win elimination game.
The Heat are the far better team in this series and comfortably taking care of business, despite shooting 43% from the field and 31% on 3s. Erik Spoelstra is running circles around Tom Thibodeau, and the Knicks are running out of bodies.
Get the Knicks outta here. If the Heat finally hit some shots, it could get ugly in Miami. Even if they don't, they should out-work, out-coach, and out-play a Knicks team playing so poorly they should probably get Cavs coach J.B. Bickerstaff fired en absentia. We're done here.
New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat
Joe Dellera: I broke down the matchup for Game 6 in more detail in the Knicks-Heat betting guide (you can check it out here), but I think the total is the smart play.
Throughout this series, the Knicks have an eFG% of just 51.2%, a significant downturn from their full-season mark of 54.3%. The offense has struggled to find a rhythm, and even when they have been able to score, the possessions are a grind. The Heat haven't been the best offensive team throughout the season, but the Knicks have kept them down in the mud. Miami has an eFG% of just 50.3% throughout this series and has shot just 31.2% from 3-point range.
These teams have played a grueling series and both are clearly banged up with all of their players running on fumes. As a result, they are playing at a glacial Pace of 93.60, which is over three possessions slower than Miami's regular season Pace, which was second-slowest in the NBA.
As series grind on, the Pace and scoring tend to slow down. Since 2003, unders in Game 6 of playoff series are 28-16. Throughout this series, these teams are averaging 208.2 points per game, slightly under the listed total.
I expect this to be another slow game where points are at a premium.
Pick: Under 208.5 |
Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Andrew O'Connor-Watts: I have four bets that I wrote about in the Game 6 betting guide (you can find the others here), but I'm targeting the total here. This has been largely a series for unders. Both teams have over rated offenses in the half court while their defense has been much better.
According to Cleaning the Glass, the Lakers have the eighth-worst offense, but the best defense, while the Warriors have the ninth-worst offense but the fourth-best playoff defense. The under is just 2-3 for the series, but two of those overs were dependent on what number you got compared to the opening line.
I especially like the under in Game 6. According to Bet Labs, since the 2004-2005 season, the under is 89-65 in Game 6. However, in a much smaller sample size, the under is just 2-5 when the Warriors play a Game 6 and 7-6 for the Lakers.
Still it’s worth noting the historical trend and I like the under down to 220. If the Warriors force another game, the under is 36-22 (62.1%) in Game 7s and 4-1 with the Warriors involved.
Pick: Under 221 |
Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Matt Moore: I have two bets that I'm making in this game, which you can find in my Warriors vs Lakers column. Teams at home in Game 6 are 38-26 since 2003, and favorites are 33-16 straight up. Now the ATS numbers are worse, but teams that win this postseason are 40-6-1 ATS (87%).
The Lakers have had enough answers. Davis is going to play, though his status is worrisome. Golden State has been horrible on the road, really beyond description.
It's tough betting against the Warriors when they've never lost a series like this, but the end comes for every team. Maybe this is theirs, with LeBron James — who they beat to win their first title and kickstarting their dynasty– being the one to end it.
Pick: Lakers -2.5 |
