Sunday's pair of NBA Playoff games were both thrillers that went down to the wire and ended up in a tied series after Game 4. Monday features another doubleheader of Game 4 matchups on TNT: Knicks vs. Heat (7:30 p.m. ET) and Warriors vs. Lakers (10 p.m. ET). Will we see two more series pushed to a best-of-three or will a team be pushed to the brink Monday night.
Action Network's analysts have four best bets today for those pivotal Game 4s, including a pair of player props, a bet on a total and spread. Check out their in-depth betting break downs and expert picks below.
NBA Odds & Best Bets
New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat
Bryan Fonseca: Jimmy Butler hasn't quite had the f*** you game yet in this series.
In Game 1, he had an efficient 25 points on 8-of-16 shooting before turning his right ankle with over five minutes left in the game. He was limited to 28 points on 9-of-21 shooting in Game 3, and he sat almost all of the fourth quarter save for a quick three-minute cameo, where he hit a dagger shot over supposed Jimmy Stopper Josh Hart, along with two free throws.
Against the Bucks, Butler scored 30 in all but one game. He hasn't gotten it yet, but as outlined above, he may have gotten robbed of it twice. The Knicks are indisputably doing a better job on Butler than the Bucks — I'm not even sure I'd say they're doing a particularly good one, just a better one — but it hasn't mattered a ton.
Game 3 was the first time Butler shot under 50% in the playoffs this season, and to illustrate how difficult that is, Julius Randle hasn't been above 50% in a playoff game in his career — not once.
There's a Butler explosion coming at some point, and Game 4 feels like the right time. Butler is still getting to his spots, still dissecting different match ups still successful navigating double teams, which occasionally still results in a bucket, still getting into the lane, and has gotten 11 free throw attempts each in Games 1 and 3. He has yet to hit a 3-pointer in this series, but he can when he needs to.
Game 4 is a game that the Knicks — the team with the fifth-best road record in the NBA this regular season — can win, but the Heat are clearly different from their regular season selves, and that starts with Butler.
Pick: Jimmy Butler 30+ Points |
New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat
Joe Dellera: Julius Randle came out flat offensively in Game 3, but he was still a menace on the glass and pulled down 14 rebounds in a game in which the Knicks cut down Mitchell Robinson’s minutes.
Randle has rebounded well against the Heat, who are an average rebounding team overall but below average in allowing defensive rebounds. He has averaged 9.3 boards per game on the season against Miami (one game he played just 14 mins), but has 12 and 14 in both games this series.
Now, in a must-win Game 4, I expect max minutes for Randle as his ankle has loosened up a bit after his injury a few weeks ago.I expect Randle to continue crashing the boards and make the most of his 20 rebound chances per game, per NBA Advanced Stats.
I’d play the base line at plus money and double double is far too long at (+190 BetRivers) considering he is leading the series in Rebounds per game (13) and Rebound Chances per game.
Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Matt Moore: I have a few bets that I'm making in this game that I've detailed in my Game 4 betting column, but I'm riding the under again. The Warriors can adapt to the Lakers defense in Game 4 on the offensive end with more weapons. But those weapons may simply not hit even if Warriors head coach Steve Kerr goes to them, which he may not.
With Anthony Davis unlikely to have two great games in a row, and the Lakers unlikely to get the free throw boost twice, there's a lot of ways the Lakers will struggle to score points.
Pick: Under 227.5 |
Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Austin Wang: I gave a more detailed break down of this game in the Warriors vs. Lakers Game 4 betting guide (you can read that here). I think the Warriors bounce back as they have done time and time again. Things went too well for the Lakers in Game 3, and I don't expect the same success from the 3-point line nor do I expect such a favorable whistle from the refs.
I backed the Warriors last game and I was completely wrong. I still make the line Lakers -1, so I am running it back with the Warriors to cover the spread. All their key players were embarrassed by their last game and I anticipate an inspired effort on Monday.
Pick: Warriors +3 |
