The NBA regular season continues on Wednesday, April 5th with an eight-game slate. With three regular season games remaining in the season for most teams, there will be significant playoff seeding ramifications tonight. Our NBA betting analysts have six best bets ready, including a pick for Lakers vs. Clippers. Find their picks and analysis below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Knicks vs. Pacers 1H Spread
Jim Turvey: This best bet comes with the Final Week Chaotic Caveat.
If this were a run of the mill, middle of December game, this would be an absolute hammer spot. The Knicks have been first-half gods all season. Their +5.2 First-Half Net Rating ranks third in the Association this season, but even more importantly, they are 48-29-2 against the spread in the first half, an ROI of 18.7% that leads the league.
The Pacers are on the other end of the spectrum, notoriously awful in the first quarter and often unable to drag themselves out of that hole by the half. They are 34-43-2 against first-half spreads, a return of -15% that ranks 24th in the league this season.
These quarter bets are reliant on steady substitution patterns, so if the Knicks decide to rest their starters, I no longer recommend this play. If they are playing their normal squad, however, I would take this to -5 at -110.
Editor's Note: Jalen Brunson (hip) has been ruled out since the time of writing of this best bet.
Pick: Knicks 1H -4.5 |
Knicks vs. Pacers Player Prop
Bryan Fonseca: I was surprised to get the number at plus odds, but I get why: Mitchell Robinson's blocks are down to 1.4 per game post All-Star break, dropping his season average to 1.4 from about 2.0 per game earlier this season.
Still, Robinson is averaging 2.1 blocks over his last seven games, which includes five contests of at least two rejections despite playing just over 24.3 minutes per game.
You can't really blame the playing time on foul trouble either, given that he's been mostly better at defending without fouling lately, and this season in general.
If you're giving me plus odds at Robinson getting two blocks, I'm going to be intrigued, and in this instance, I'll take a shot at it.
Knicks vs. Pacers Spread
Chris Baker: I’ll back the Pacers with the points on two days of rest as they take on a Knicks team that has nothing to play for. The Knicks are coached by Tom Thibodeau, so they may still play their starters, but you would hope that they would get Jalen Brunson some much needed rest in a meaningless game against the Pacers.
The Knicks will be playing the Cavs in Cleveland as the 5th seed regardless of what happens in this game, so I expect their to either be a plethora of rest candidates or a lack of motivation from the Knicks.
For the Pacers, we know Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner will be out, but I actually like their depth behind them. I would argue that their current nine-man rotation is pretty much all replacement-level NBA players or better. This isn’t a situation where you have a team like the Spurs, Pistons or Trail Blazers who are literally playing deep G League guys to finish out their season. Between guards like TJ McConnell, Buddy Hield and Andrew Nembhard, the Pacers have more than enough ball-handling talent to produce offense.
The Pacers have talent on the floor, and I expect them to compete hard tonight as they have nothing to gain or lose in this one. The Knicks have everything to lose and absolutely nothing to gain, so I expect that to weigh on their motivation if they are dumb enough to even play their starters. Take the Pacers at +9 and play their moneyline at +330 for a little as well. Play this down to +7.5.
Pick: Pacers +9 |
Bulls vs. Bucks Moneyline
Jim Turvey: The Bulls have been playing much better since the All-Star Break, going 12-8 in the 20 games since, allowing them to move solidly into the play-in. They have a +7.0 Net Rating since the break that ranks second only to only their opponent on Wednesday, the Bucks (not including games from Tuesday night).
While there's a chance the Bucks run the full gang out there, the possibility of a full sit is also possible, and as such, there's a really high ceiling to the Bulls moneyline at +215.
The Bucks have a magic number of one to clinch the top seed. Personally, I think it makes sense to rest Giannis Antetokounmpo at least two of these final three games, and it would make sense to split them up.
Without the full information, I'm going to downsize the unit play, but of course trying to wait out that information will make it very challenging to get to the books before any potential shift in the odds.
Pick: Bulls Moneyline +215 |
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans Spread
Chris Baker: It’s tough to pick a side without knowing 100% who is playing on the Grizzlies, but given the wildly different motivations for each team, I would have to lean towards the Pelicans at -5.
The Pelicans will be treating this matchup like a game seven, while the Grizzlies have very little to gain and everything to lose if someone gets injured this late in the season. The Grizzlies have pretty much locked down the 2-seed, and I would expect them to rest a few of their key players tonight as they are coming off of a back-to-back.
Given this incentive disparity, I will lay the -5 with the Pelicans.
Pick: Pelicans -5 (-110) |
Lakers vs. Clippers Spread
Tyler Schmidt: With the status of LeBron James, Anthony Davis and D'Angelo Russell in jeopardy after they all played heavy minutes in last night’s overtime win over the Jazz, take the Clippers at -4 on the spread. If all three Lakers starters are ruled out, this line could jump substantially. It seems the Lakers will either have James and Davis both sit or both play, instead of one of them sitting out.
In anticipation of both James and Davis missing this game, I would bet the Clippers right now and take them up to -7.5 points. The Clippers already have the tiebreaker over the Lakers as they go for the season sweep tonight. Even if James and Davis do play, getting the Clippers at -4 is still a strong bet. However, the upside is massive if the injury news breaks our way.
Pick: Clippers -4 | Play to -7.5 |
