Monday's NBA Playoff games were two of the most memorable matchups of the season and it will be tough for Tuesday's games to measure up. With a three Game 5s on the slate, there's a good chance tonight will, at the very least, match the energy of last night.
The slate opens with Hawks vs Celtics (7:30 p.m. ET on TNT), then Timberwolves vs Nuggets (9 p.m. ET on NBA TV) followed by Clippers vs Suns (10 p.m. ET on TNT). Action Network's staff is targeting six best bets today with value. Read on for their expert picks for Tuesday below.
NBA Odds & Best Bets
Atlanta Hawks vs. Boston Celtics
Jacob McKenna: I covered this matchup in the Hawks vs Celtics Game 5 betting guide (you can find the full article here). Atlanta hasn't been able to get much done against Boston. The Hawks are now 1-5 against the Celtics when including their two losses to Boston in the regular season.
To make matters more complicated, Dejounte Murray will be serving a one-game suspension for making contact with a referee in Game 4. Murray has averaged 25.3 points, 7.3 rebounds and 5.8 assists this series.
The absence of Murray is obviously a big blow for the Hawks' chances of extending their season. However, I think a spread of 13.5 points is slightly high.
Murray missed eight games during the regular season. Atlanta managed to post a 118.1 Offensive Rating in those matchups, up from 117.3 in the 74 games he suited up for, per StatMuse. Atlanta averaged 119.8 points per game without the former Spur.
Boston has yet to win a game by more than 13 in this series, and Atlanta has made some adjustments since losing by that margin early on. Even with Murray out, I think the Hawks can cover the spread; I would only play it down to 12.5.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets
Matt Moore: The Wolves are figuring out the trigger mechanisms in each game despite trailing in this series. Anthony Edwards has become more comfortable in pick-and-roll, Mike Conley looks more comfortable and Karl-Anthony Towns actually did some stuff in Game 4, which is encouraging.
The Nuggets are going to push the pace in Game 5, they've done much better when they get downhill against the Wolves.This actually makes their defense better because they can set up their defense on the other end.
That might lead you to think the total would be lower, but I think the Wolves' floor on offense has risen enough that this number is just too low. Based on my numbers and their regular season matchups, I make this 229. I'm willing to go over here.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets
Jim Turvey: I have serval picks for this game and wrote more about those in Tuesday's Game 5 betting guide (you can find those bets here). This series had BIG Gentleman's Sweep energy even before it started.
In Game 1, the Nuggets dominated the Wolves, but in fairness to Minnesota, that was one of the tougher schedule losses we've seen this postseason. In Game 2, the Wolves actually led in Denver after three quarters, but the Nuggets made a late push to seal the 2-0 series lead.
That pattern has been there throughout this matchup, with the Wolves, who were one of the better first-quarter and first-half teams this season, sort of stumbling down the stretch. The Nuggets have won the fourth quarter in Games 2-4 while tying in Game 1.
Given that this game will come at home with the chance to avoid another couple road trips, I see that pattern continuing.
I am going with Denver -1.5 at FanDuel for the fourth quarter spread.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets
Bryan Fonseca: The Nuggets have to end this, don't they?
They've won every game by at least nine points. They probably should've closed the series in four after their furious comeback in regulation to force overtime, but alas, the Timberwolves were able to win their fourth playoff game since the 2003-04 season, so congrats on that.
(Jimmy Butler tried to tell y'all)
Karl-Anthony Towns has been largely inconsequential this series, so we're not worried about him going off and saving the T-Wolves. I know we all wish well for Anthony Edwards — for me, that entails going to a serious organization that can maximize him within the next few years, let's talk in July — but having a fourth consecutive high-level scoring outburst might be a big ask.
After averaging 15 points during the first three post-season games — including the Play-In — Edwards has netted at least 36 points in their last three. I think he drops off a bit — perhaps a classic case of trying to do too much following a game-sealing jumper and another explosive performance, which is easy to visualize.
Ultimately, the Nuggets have a home-court advantage that matters. I think Edwards struggles, Towns is a non-factor, Rudy Gobert is whatever he is at this time of year, and the Nuggets win by double digits.
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Phoenix Suns
Andrew O'Connor-Watts: Russell Westbrook has refused to let this team give up without Kawhi Leonard. I haven’t been a huge Westbrook believer the past few years, but he’s really shown up in his time with the Clippers and especially in this series specifically.
The Clippers haven’t won since Game 1, but Westbrook has kept the Clippers in games—at least early on. Ty Lue has largely out-coached Monty Williams this series and its taken Williams at least a quarter to adjust each game.
Los Angeles has covered every first quarter this series and they’ve covered in eight of their last 10 games going back to the regular season.
The Clippers could be gassed or ready to pack it in without their two best players in the lineup and facing a 3-1 deficit, but if they’re going to make any sort of push, it’s going to have to start early.
Let’s get in and get out. I like the Clippers in the first quarter down to +3.5.
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Phoenix Suns
Brandon Anderson: I gave a much more detailed breakdown of this game in the betting guide for Game 5 (you can read that here). As much as it feels like the Suns have dominated this series, the Clippers have been competitive deep into every game.
The evidence of the series tells us that the Clippers will play hard, that the Suns don't have a gear to put them away, and that this should be a winnable game late for both sides.
A +610 moneyline implies a 14% chance of a Clippers win. Nothing we've seen in this series makes that the right number. I think the Clippers are live to win this game, and I think they're still live in this series too, with +6500 at least twice as long as it ought to be.
The most likely outcome is the Suns making just enough late jumpers again to put this away, but Phoenix simply isn't as good as the price it's being afforded right now.
