The NBA season continues on Sunday with an eight-game slate that rides through the afternoon into the evening. Our experts Alex Hinton and Jim Turvey have two best bets, a pair of player prop overs, for you to tail. Check out their picks and analysis below.
NBA Odds & Picks
| 6 p.m. ET | |
Detroit Pistons vs. Sacramento Kings
| 6 p.m. ET | |
Alex Hinton: A couple of weeks back, I targeted Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's points line against the Pistons. He finished with 33 points and joined the already long list of point guards to exploit the Pistons this season. Today, I am going back to the well and targeting another Kentucky guard, De'Aaron Fox.
Fox is averaging 24.8 points on the year. He has scored 25 points in eight of his 13 games this season, including a 28-point performance against the Spurs in his last time out. Both the volume and favorable matchup are there to get him to 25 points again on Sunday.
This year, he is averaging 17.2 field goal attempts per game while playing with remarkable efficiency as he is shooting 55.4% from the field. That includes 37.8% on about five 3-point attempts per game, but like SGA, Fox likes to get into the lane and operate in the midrange area.
That should play well against Detroit as the Pistons rank 26th in 2-point percentage defense and 27th in points in the paint allowed. The Pistons are also 29th in points allowed per game and dead last in defending point guards. Fox should have ample opportunity to score 25 points and threaten 30 points, which is +200 on FanDuel as well.
Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets
Jim Turvey: Steph Curry points over?! What a square pick!
Yes, but it's also been a reliable best bet this season. Steph the Chef is fully back this season, but the books are still hanging numbers as if it was last season when his shooting and scoring were both notably down from career norms.
Curry has gone over this number in 10 of 15 games this season, and often with ease, with all 10 overs creeping into the 30s, so it's not as though he is limping over this number.
On the surface, the worry here would be a blowout in Houston capping his minutes total, but unlike their talisman, the Warriors are decidedly not as good as they have been in seasons past. They have only one blowout win to their name all season, and on the flip side, the Rockets have only one loss by more than 16 points despite playing such high-scoring games and often being on the losing side of things.
Even if the Warriors do win comfortably, and Curry plays 32 minutes instead of 35, he can still clear this total. Both teams rank in the top 11 in Pace, and the Rockets own the third-worst defense in the Association this year. Curry has played under 33 minutes four times this season and still went over this number in two of those games. This is also a worse defense than either of those teams he accomplished that feat against (Lakers and Kings).
Curry is also the Warriors' highest-scoring player when it comes to transition, a key element of the game that the Rockets struggle immensely against.
The best line listed here is at DraftKings because far more people have that book, but if you have MyBookie, you can get the number at -115.
