The NBA season continues into November on Tuesday night with a small slate of four games. Our NBA analysts have a best bet on a prop for Magic vs. Thunder and then make their cases for each side of the Timberwolves vs. Suns night cap on TNT. Check out their picks and analysis below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Orlando Magic vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Kenny Ducey: So far, volume has continued to go Tre Mann’s way. He’s seen a steady dose of minutes with over 27 per game, and with Josh Giddey out, he’s taken a few more shots. In the last three contests, which Giddey has missed, Mann has averaged 15 attempts from the field and six from beyond the arc, making two on average.
Mann has gone for two or more 3s in four of his six games, and I’m going to back him to do that again. It’s not as if he’s an incredible shooter, standing at 35.1% for his career, but he’s taking more 3s this season with six per game (he took 4.5 on average last season), and we can also feel somewhat confident about the second-year man out of Florida after he shot 40.2% in his final year on campus. It’s clear he can shoot, and he’s simply trying to establish that in the NBA with increased volume.
The Magic are allowing 37.3% shooting from beyond the arc, which ranks sixth-worst in the NBA, and Mann is firing 3s right now like there’s no tomorrow. I think this is a solid find on FanDuel.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Phoenix Suns
Chris Baker: I’m trusting the Timberwolves to cover the short number on the road against Phoenix. The biggest thing leading me to this play is the absence of Deandre Ayton due to injury.
Having a rim-protector is important when playing against the Minnesota offense that currently ranks third in rim frequency, per Cleaning the Glass. The Suns were already struggling prior to the Ayton injury as they rank 28th in the NBA in rim frequency on defense. They allowed the Rockets to shoot 45% of their shots at the rim on Sunday, and the Rockets rank lower in rim frequency than the Timberwolves. This team isn’t doing a good job at preventing easy shots, and that is a recipe for disaster against this massive Minnesota team.
Another concern with the Suns was their inability to block-out in their last game against the Houston Rockets. They allowed a 36.7% Offensive Rebound Rate (93rd percentile) to a Rockets team that isn’t particularly big as they only played one true center in that game, Alperen Sengun.
The Suns offense currently ranks fifth in midrange frequency, but the Wolves have done a nice job contesting those looks as they rank eighth-best in midrange field goal percentage against and allow the fourth-fewest midrange looks. The length of Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns, Jaden McDaniels and Anthony Edwards can disrupt Devin Booker and Chris Paul.
When the Timberwolves have the ball, I don’t really see how the Suns effectively matchup with them down low, where they will attempt to guard the bigs with a trio of Bismack Biyombo, Cameron Johnson and Jock Landale. The Suns won't get consistent stops on the defensive end, and I am comfortable backing the Timberwolves at any number above +140.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Phoenix Suns
Andrew O'Connor-Watts: The 4-3 Timberwolves travel to Phoenix to play the 5-1 Suns tonight. Despite having a winning record, the Timberwolves are just 3-4 ATS. Well, they must have played some really good teams then, you're probably saying. Nope. They've played the Thunder twice and the Spurs three times, with the Spurs winning by nine points in their two victories. The Wolves were even held to an embarrassing 4/29 from 3 (13.8%) on Sunday. Yikes.
The Wolves still have some things to figure out to incorporate their new big man Rudy Gobert, whom they acquired this offseason in a massive deal that sent Malik Beasley, Patrick Beverley, Leandro Bolmaro, Walker Kessler (no. 22 pick in 2022 draft), Jarred Vanderbilt, a pick swap and four first-round picks to the Jazz.
Despite what everyone thought going into this season (myself included), the Suns do NOT have much to figure out. The on-court impact of the turmoil surrounding owner Robert Sarver and the hostile work environment he cultivated in Phoenix seems to have been overblown, at least for the 2022-23 season as the Suns have started the season 4-0 ATS.
Although center Deandre Ayton will miss tonight's game, the Suns have some worthy replacements in Jock Landale and Bismack Biyombo. Phoenix is getting overlooked by the books so far this season despite having the best home record last season (32-9) and a 4-0 record at home so far this season. Phoenix is also second in scoring and has the biggest Point Differential in the league (+12.4).
The sharps have been all over the Timberwolves today, but I'll wait to be proven wrong before I go against the Suns. I like them down to -4.5.
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