The NBA regular season continues on Wednesday with an exciting eight-game slate. Our NBA experts have five best bets for you tonight, including three bets (a prop bet, spread pick and total play) on Pacers vs. Knicks at Madison Square Garden. Find their picks and analysis for tonight's matchups below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Pacers vs. Knicks Prop
Joe Dellera: The Knicks have been susceptible to the 3-ball all season and allow them at one of the highest rates in the league. Knicks’ opponents shoot 38.9% of their shots from 3-point range with a proportional distribution between the corner and above the break. While they limit their opponents’ conversions on those 3s, they have struggled against stretch bigs. Recently, the Knicks have allowed Brook Lopez, Joe Ingles, Doug McDemott and Christian Wood all to exceed their 3-point prop.
Enter, Myles Turner.
Turner has had success against the Knicks. Last season he canned seven 3s against the Knicks on 10 attempts in one game. He has now exceeded his 3s prop in three of five against the Knicks the last two seasons. The difference is volume. Turner is averaging 4.1 3-point attempts the last two seasons. Against the Knicks? 6.2 attempts.
The volume increases dramatically due to the Knicks’ defensive scheme, which generally lines Mitchell Robinson in a drop against someone like Myles Turner. Turner is shooting 37.9% from 3 this season, and I project him at closer to 2.3 made 3s. I’ll take the juicy base line at 1.5 (+165), and I’ll sprinkle 3+ 3s as well (+600 at FanDuel).
Pick: Myles Turner Over 1.5 Made 3s |
Pacers vs. Knicks Spread
Matt Moore: The Knicks are wretched at home this season, 7-12-2 ATS and 6-8-1 as a favorite. Indiana is 9-7 ATS on the road. The Pacers are also fifth in 3-pointers per 100 possessions, and the Knicks give up the third-most 3-point attempts per 100 possessions.
This reeks of a game where the Knicks build a big lead, the Pacers storm back, and it's close down the stretch. I'll have a half-unit on the Pacers ML as well.
Pick: Pacers +4.5 |
Pacers vs Knicks Total
Chris Baker: These teams don’t matchup well with each other at all here. The Pacers are the league’s worst defensive rebounding team, and the Knicks rank third in Offensive Rebound Rate on the year. The Pacers offense ranks fifth in 3-point Attempt Rate, while the Knicks defense ranks 27th in 3-point Attempt Rate Allowed.
The Indiana defense also ranks 27th in Rim Rate while the Knicks offense ranks 15th. Finally, the Pacers rank 29th in Free Throw Rate Allowed and will be going up against a physical Knicks offense that ranks 13th in FT Rate.
There are so many mismatches on both ends of the ball, but on top of the mismatches, it is highly likely that both of these defenses are being overrated right now. The Knicks have played five of their last six games against bottom-10 offenses. The Pacers defense has played the eighth-easiest schedule of opposing offenses on the season, according to dunksandthrees.com.
We also may get an added boost to the offensive output with the potential return of RJ Barrett for the Knicks. Barrett has struggled defensively this season as the Knicks' Defensive Rating increases by 7.6 points per 100 possessions (seventh percentile) when he is on the court.
Only Jalen Brunson has a worse on-court Defensive Rating swing for the Knicks. Brunson and Barrett have both been positive contributors on the offensive end so both of them being healthy would further favor this over.
On the Pacers side, they may be without their defensive point of attack stud T.J. McConnell. McConnell has been one of their best defenders, but their offense craters when he is in the game as he has a -7.6 Offensive Rating swing (11th percentile). His absence would harm the Pacers defense but likely benefit their offense here. Expect points at MSG and play this up to 228.5.
Pick: Over 226.5 |
Bucks vs. Hawks Total
Matt Moore: This is a great fade or follow pick because I'm walking into the fire.
This number opened at 232.5, right around where I project it. I took the under on our Buckets podcast today because the Bucks are a great defense with a few random performances (Christmas vs. the Celtics, last week vs. the Hornets) that have skewed their defensive profile.
Then I wake up this morning to this total having jumped a full four points to 236.5. So I'm fading the steam, which always makes me nauseous, but I really can't get in line with this going over. Milwaukee's offense is dreadful, extremely pedestrian, and Atlanta's defense is 17th (schedule-adjusted).
The average total in the three prior matchups between these two teams this season was 224.5. I can see no reason for a full 12-point jump, or even the eight-point jump before the steam.
The market strongly believes this thing is going over, but I can't get there. An axiom I've tried to adopt in betting is that you have to be OK with being wrong if the bet loses. I'm OK if I'm wrong on this. This number should be lower.
Spurs vs. Grizzlies Spread
Matt Moore: Memphis is 11-0 straight up and 6-4-1 ATS vs. teams under .500 at home this season. The Grizzlies are 11-6-1 ATS as home favorites overall.
This is a duplex spot, facing the same team twice in the same city on back-to-back games. The Spurs barely covered the first matchup. Teams at home favored in both games who won the first matchup outright are 29-23-1 (55%) ATS in this spot.
Memphis likes to put on shows against bad teams at home, and they'll put on another one here with Ja Morant back. I'm laying the heavy lumber here.
Pick: Grizzlies -13.5 |
