Tuesday nights are typically the lightest on games in the NBA and with just four games on tonight's schedule. The slate is anchored by Nets vs. 76ers (7:30 p.m. ET) and Lakers vs. Suns (10 p.m. ET), but our NBA analysts are all focused on one game that will likely be overlooked: Kings vs. Grizzlies.
While the injury report could be a huge factor here, our crew has three picks for tonight's matchup: one prop bet, one total bet and one moneyline play. They break down the matchup and give their best bets for Kings vs. Grizzlies below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Sacramento Kings vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Munaf Manji: De'Aaron Fox has improved his game every season since he has been in the NBA. This season, Fox has not only been an improved jump shooter, he is also getting his teammates involved in particular in the pick-and-roll game.
The Grizzlies are allowing opponents to average 27.2 assists per game this season, which ranks 29th in the NBA. Over the past five games, the Grizzlies are allowing 30.6 assists per game. Fox, on the other hand, has gone over 6.5 assists in six straight games for the Kings. This feels like the perfect matchup for this prop.
The Kings' offense has been firing all cylinders this season — first in Offensive Rating (118.6) and rank seventh in Pace and second in Assist Ratio, according to NBA Advanced Stats. I expect the assists to continue to pile up for Fox tonight and love the over 6.5 tonight.
Sacramento Kings vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Chris Baker: The Grizzlies' offense stalled on Sunday without Ja Morant (questionable tonight) and Desmond Bane (out) as they put up just 108 points per 100 possessions and had a 48.9% Effective Field Goal Percentage from the field. The team slowed down and played through Dillon Brooks when those two were out and he had a massively high 35.2% Usage Rate against the Nets on Sunday.
That is always good for an under as Brooks is really not an efficient offensive player. Steven Adams had the second-highest Usage Rate (23.4%), not really something that should excite you as an over bettor. Jaren Jackson Jr. is back for this one, but I don’t expect him to be a massive factor on offense in just his third game back from injury.
Aside from the Grizzlies' anticipated offensive inefficiency, I like how each of these teams match up with each other. A big key when facing the Kings is to force them to play in the half court as they rank second in the NBA in transition frequency (17.9%).
The Grizzlies should be able to get back and set their defense as they rank eighth in transition points per 100. The Kings' defense should also do a good job in transition as they rank second-best in transition frequency allowed and fourth in transition points per 100 on defense.
The final key for defending Memphis winning the defensive rebound battle. The Grizzlies have consistently ranked No. 1 in the NBA in offensive rebound rate since they acquired Adams. If teams don't box out Adams, Jackson, and Brandon Clarke, it becomes a struggle to get stops. I expect the Kings to do a good job in this aspect of the game as they currently rank second in the NBA in Defensive Rebound Rate.
Ultimately, I love the way these teams match up and I expect this to be a tightly contested half court game. Take the under 235 down to 233 in Memphis tonight.
Sacramento Kings vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Austin Wang: Surprise! News came out in the morning that Ja Morant has been upgraded to questionable for Tuesday's night game against the red-hot Kings. The original timetable was week-to-week with a sprained ankle, so it was projected he would be out at least three games.
The Kings have been one of the biggest surprises this season. They have the NBA's top Offensive Rating and they have excelled on that side of the ball. They are shooting 3-pointers well (38.1%, fifth in NBA). Conversely, the Grizzlies have struggled to defend the 3-point line this season (22nd in opponent's 3-point percentage). De'Aaron Fox is having a career season, and getting plenty of support from their role players.
The Kings are a league-best 11-3 against the spread and I expect them to continue this success in this revenge spot against the Grizzlies. Desmond Bane is still out for the Grizzlies and Jaren Jackson Jr. is still easing his way back into game shape. Add in Morant potentially returning after a one-game absence and there's likely going to be a lack of continuity with this roster.
With the pending Morant news, the Grizzlies are back to small favorites in the market, giving me a nice opportunity to pounce on the Kings with additional upside if Morant ends up sitting.
