We're starting the week off right with a fun seven-game NBA slate on the horizon that features just one matchup on NBA TV: Pacers vs. Nets (7:30 p.m. ET).
In addition to that matchup, our hoops analysts are betting two more games and see value in player props and two totals in those games. You can find their betting analysis and best bets for Monday night below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Sacremento Kings vs. Charlotte Hornets
Andrew O'Connor-Watts: Despite a mediocre record, the Kings have been shooting the lights out of the ball. They rank seventh in True Shooting (59.2%) and 3rd in Effective FG% (56.5%). They're only 17th in offensive rating, which is above average, but nothing to write home about, however they have one of the worst defenses in the league ranking 25th overall in Defensive Rating (116).
The Hornets have a better Offensive Rating than the Kings at 13th (113), but generate it more from their defense than shooting. While their overall transition offense isn't elite, one category sets them apart: points off steals.
This season, 86.1% of the Hornet's steals lead to a transition play, good enough for first in the league, and they rank sixth in Pts+/Poss (2.8) and eighth in Pts/Play (156.7). The Kings, meanwhile, do not matchup well against that kind of transition offense. They rank eighth in defensive Pts+/Poss (2.0) and 10th in Pts/Play allowed (120.8).
Both the Kings and Hornets play with pace, ranking sixth and 11th respectively. Their previous matchups would indicate this isn't anything new. The last five out of six meetings between these two teams have gone over and in the one under in that span, they still scored above 231.5 (238).
Indiana Pacers vs. Brooklyn Nets
Joe Dellera: Tyrese Haliburton has been a certified stud to start the season with averages of 23.4 points, 10 assists, and 4.1 rebounds per game. He just shredded the Brooklyn Nets for 26 points, 8 assists, and 6 rebounds on Saturday and now gets another favorable matchup in tonight’s rematch.
The books have adjusted a bit to account for his increased scoring output so I’m pivoting to his Rebounds + Assists combo prop for value. Haliburton is averaging 10 assists per game on 19.6 potentials per game and he is securing 4.1 rebounds per game on 6.3 rebound chances per game.
I like this combo prop because Haliburton could clear it with just assists, but his rebounding floor is particularly strong especially against the Brooklyn Nets, the team with the worst Rebounding % in the league, 45.2%.
Haliburton has cleared this line in six straight games and his one miss is in the season opener against the Wizards. I’ll back him to continue his contributions across the board.
Detroit Pistons vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Matt Moore: Usually in this spot I'm going for Mike Budenholzer against division teams. Since taking over the Bucks, Budenholzer is 58-9 straight up (86.6%) and 47-20 (70.1%) against the spread when facing Central Division opponents. That includes 12-4 ATS in the first 20 games when numbers are often softer, and 15-8 (65%) ATS as a double-digit home favorite.
However, since things have been a little wonky with the dogs this season and the Bucks are undefeated, making this a less than ideal spot vs. a plucky Pistons team, I'm going with the under.
Under in Bucks home division games are 19-15 (44%) and the Bucks defense is No. 1 in the league schedule-adjusted at Dunks And Threes. Detroit has started to show some offensive chops but Milwaukee should put the clamps on. If the Bucks lose, it's because their offense can't make shots.
I'll chase the steam and play the under 224.5 from an opener of 227, as I make this game 218.5.
