Tom Brady and Lamar Jackson are getting the lion's share of the attention on Thursday night, but the NBA has some star-studded head-to-head matchups on the slate as well. Tonight's national TV double-header on NBA TV features four potential title contenders: Mavericks vs. Nets (7:30 p.m. ET) and Heat vs. Warriors (10 p.m. ET).
Our NBA analysts are focused on the earlier of those two matchups and have two picks for that games. Check out their analysis and best bets for Thursday.
NBA Odds & Picks
Dallas Mavericks vs. Brooklyn Nets
Chris Baker: The Nets are on a back to back off a tough loss to a very physical Milwaukee team. I don’t like this spot for them but before I even get into the spot I think that we are inherently getting value on this Mavericks team.
The Mavericks are 1-2 but they are No. 1 in Adjusted Net Rating at Dunks And Threes and first in points per 100 according to Cleaning the Glass. This has been one of the most efficient teams in the NBA despite the fact that they lost two coin-flip games to the Pelicans and Suns.
Both of these teams rank top-four in adjusted net rating so these aren’t “bad” losses in my opinion. The Grizzlies team that they blew out by 40 and held to just 97 points currently ranks sixth in adjusted offensive rating.
Now they get to go up against a Brooklyn team that is 22nd in adjusted net rating and off a tough demoralizing road loss to Milwaukee that saw their head coach get tossed and multiple players earn technical fouls.
Maybe Brooklyn comes into this one super motivated and on fire but I have yet to see it. The Dallas offense ranks fourth in rim rate and third in 3-point attempt rate taking 82% of their shots from the rim or 3-point line. Brooklyn has tons of offensive talent but they currently 27th in rim rate and 23rd in 3-point rate.
This is not the shot profile of a championship contender in my opinion and I want to be backing teams who are consistently taking efficient shots. I expect Dallas to come out focused off a loss and earn a victory in Brooklyn on Thursday night.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Brooklyn Nets
Joe Dellera: Luka Doncic has commanded an absolutely absurd Usage Rate this season with a 44.5% mark which is somehow an increase over last season’s 42.4% mark.
One thing he has done despite this is he has totally been in control of the offense, his movements, and his turnovers. Luka has a Turnover Percentage of just 9.6%, which is a 4% decrease from last season and is in the 76th percentile of all Point Guards.
Last season, Luka averaged 4.3 turnovers per game but this season he has recorded 4, 3, and 3 with the 4 against an elite Suns team. Now, he gets Brooklyn’s porous defense that is allowing 120.2 points per 100 possessions and struggles to force turnovers only generating 14 per game, per Team Rankings.
Additionally, Brooklyn plays at a relatively slow Pace, is on the second game of a back-to-back, and they do not have the defensive talent to force Luka out of his comfort zone and generate turnovers. Luka has recorded fewer than 3.5 turnovers in 7 of his last 10 games, and he seems to have come in fresh off of his stint in EuroBasket.
It’s sweaty but I’ll grab this under at any plus money number.
