It's a beautiful Monday across the NBA and we're kicking off the week with seven-game schedule to open the week. Thunder vs. Celtics (7:30 p.m. ET) is the featured matchup on NBA TV, but our NBA analysts are targeting two more games on tonight's slate.
Our crew has four bets from Monday's games, including spreads and totals. Check out their in-depth betting analysis along with their expert picks and predictions below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Toronto Raptors vs. Detroit Pistons
Matt Moore: Happy Dwane Casey Revenge Day! Since Casey was fired by the Raptors and joined the Pistons, the Pistons are 32% straight up and 48% against the spread in games all teams but Toronto.
But against the Raptors? They are 9-3 SU and ATS.
In the NBA, many will tell you the biggest edge is injuries. I'll tell you it's motivation. And Casey gets his guys up for this game, no matter if he admits it or not. Plus, the Raptors are without Fred VanVleet, Precious Achiuwa, and Pascal Siakam, on the road, laying five.
No Cade Cunningham — their best player — obviously that matters for the Pistons, but I make this game with everyone healthy Pistons +8. Cunningham being out should be a point so that makes it Pistons +9. FVV should be two points, Siakam a solid 2.5, and Achiuwa maybe a half-points. That's five points to get it back to Pistons +4, inside the number before we factor the motivational spot.
The NBA season is long and arduous. Let's enjoy these little fun trends like how somehow, Casey's very not-good Pistons keep beating his former team.
Charlotte Hornets vs. Orlando Magic
Chris Baker: LaMelo Ball is back in the lineup for the Charlotte Hornets, so we should expect to see their Pace and Offensive Efficiency ramp up. We should also expect their defense to regress with Ball on the floor. That's exactly what happened against the Miami Heat on Friday night as the Hornets allowed 137 points.
Keep in mind that the Heat ranked bottom-10 in Offensive Rating despite playing the second-easiest schedule of opposing defenses, according to Dunks And Threes. The Magic have a number of matchup advantages down-low as the Hornets lack rim-protectors and tend to play small. Between Wendell Carter Jr, Mo Bamba, and Bol Bol the Magic have a ton of massive bigs that should be able to have some success near the rim tonight.
The Charlotte offense should also be able to get going against this Magic team that ranks 29th in opponent 3-point attempt rate, allowing 40% of shots taken against them to be threes. This bodes well for a Charlotte team that has taken a lot of 3s when Ball is in the lineup — they ranked 10th in 3PA rate last season. I expect the Hornets to get up tons of 3s against this slow Magic lineup.
Paolo Banchero is questionable for this game, but he practiced Saturday and has rested the past two games, so I like his chances of playing. If he is officially ruled in expect this line to shoot up two or three points giving us some nice closing line value.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Boston Celtics
Joe Dellera: The Boston Celtics have been on fire to start the season with the second-highest eFG% in the League (57.8%) and they are the top team in both Adjusted Offensive Rating and Overall Adjusted Net Rating.
Today, they take on the Oklahoma City Thunder who are 19th in Adjusted Defensive Rating and 20th in Adjusted Defensive Rating. The Thunder play fast, seventh-fastest Pace in the league, and this is a pace up spot for the Celtics. This is a recipe for points.
Considering the Thunder are in the second game of a back to back after the barnburner against the Knicks, they may not have the legs to keep up with the league’s number one offense.
Boston has exceeded this number in 8-of-13 games this season and in five of the past six. I prefer to target the first half so we can get ahead of any full game blowout issues where the lineups may be less efficient for Boston.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Boston Celtics
Austin Wang: Both of these teams are 8-5 to the over this season. Celtics have the No. 1 Offensive Rating (119.4), and they are facing a Thunder team that has looked sharp on offense and playing at a fast tempo.
In their last five games, they are eighth in Offensive Rating, 23rd in Defensive Rating, and fifth in Pace, per NBA Advanced Stats. They are on the second night of a back-to-back, so I can see their defense struggling against the defending Eastern Conference champions.
The Celtics have had an Assist-to-Turnover Ratio of 4.3 and 3.9 in their previous two games. I love using this as a predictive metric for overs. Since the 2016-17 season, teams off two consecutive games with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.75 or greater are 201-128-19 (61.1%) to the over, per the SDQL at Killer Sports. These teams tend to carry over this efficiency on offense over to the next game.
I like this game to be high-scoring and my projections have this total at 232. I'm playing the over here, up to 230.
