We have yet another Monday NBA slate that gives us the opportunity to tip the week off right.
Tonight's schedule features eight games, including another rematch of the 2022 Western Conference finals between the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks (7:30 p.m. ET on NBA TV).
Including that matchup, our NBA analysts are locking in on two more games and see value in a player prop bet, a team total under and a +200 underdog on the evening's slate.
You can find their expert picks and predictions for Monday night below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Atlanta Hawks
Matt Moore: I like this for the number plus the spot, plus a trend.
I make this Hawks -4. The Thunder are 12-5 against the spread as a dog this season and 8-2 as a road dog, while the Hawks are just 4-4-1 as home favorites. The Thunder wear you out with physical defense and pace, two things the Hawks don't especially want to see.
Then there's the drama with Trae Young, who reportedly did not even attending Friday's win over the Nuggets after a tiff with coach Nate McMillan, which causes more disruption.
Finally, there's the spot. OKC is sneaky bad on back-to-backs, because energy saps their discipline and effort. But this isn't a back-to-back spot. Since 2020 when Mark Daigneault took over, OKC is 49-25-4 (66%) ATS as a dog when not on a back-to-back, 28-10 on the road. Throw in Shai-Gilgeous Alexander and his ability to attack the Hawks' drop defensive scheme and I like OKC.
Since 2003, dogs that covered have won outright 63% of the time in the NBA. This season? It's 70%. So splash some on the moneyline as well.
Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks
Joe Dellera: The Phoenix Suns take on the Dallas Mavericks tonight in what should be an exciting matchup. One player that I am targeting is Deandre Ayton.
Ayton is having an excellent year after getting his new contract (we'll ignore the Pacers signing that didn't happen since Ayton clearly has so far). He is averaging 17 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 2.2 assists in 29.1 minutes per game. He should be able to take care of Christian Wood today if Wood, who is listed as questionable, even suits up, or any of the Mavericks' other big men.
His points total is set a 17.5, a number he has exceeded in just seven of his 21 games this season, but he’s blown past this number in four of his past six games. However, in eight career games vs. Wood, Ayton has averaged 21.8 points, 11.3 rebounds and 2.0 blocks and he’s gone over his 17.5 point total in seven of those games.
I expect him to continue his strong play and go over his points prop in tonight’s game.
Indiana Pacers at Golden State Warriors
Jim Turvey: This was one of my plays for Sunday night, and there's little reason not to have it again as a play for Monday night. The Pacers are without their offensive lodestar, Tyrese Haliburton, at least through Monday night's game, and their offense just isn't the same without him (or even with a hobbled version of him, as we saw the two games prior).
The Pacers were held to just 100 points on Sunday night with T.J. McConnell in the starting lineup to replace Haliburton who is out with a groin injury. This was nearly their lowest point total of the season (they scored 99 against Houston in one very strange game earlier this season), and it makes sense: McConnell just doesn't create the looks that Haliburton does. The Most Improved Player of the Year candidate is leading the league in assists, while also leading the Pacers in field goal attempts per game.
The only worry here is the pace factor. This game will feature the teams with the fastest (Warriors) and third-fastest (Pacers) Pace in the Association this season. It's worth noting that Indiana's pace (no pun intended) was way down Sunday night in their first game without Haliburton.
I also like the Warriors side of this game, but I liked it a lot more when it opened at -9.5 than the -11 it now sits at in the market. I also don't hate the under for the game as a whole because although McConnell is a far cry from Haliburton on the offensive end, he's a far superior defender to Haliburton, so around the edges this should just be a slower, lower-scoring game in general.
To most target the edge, though, I like the team total under, with the rest of the game script peripherals more like half unit plays. I would play under 111.5 (-110) if this continues to steam down.
