Friday night's NBA slate gave us thrills, chills and everything in between with several fantastic finishes. What will Saturday bring? We've got seven games on the schedule today, including five games on the evening portion of the slate.
Our analysts are targeting two games tonight: Thunder vs. Timberwolves (8 p.m. ET) and Rockets vs. Warriors (8:30 p.m. ET). Check out their best bets for Saturday below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Tyler Schmidt: Despite losing Karl-Anthony Towns, the Minnesota Timberwolves looked great last game getting revenge on the Memphis Grizzlies after they knocked them out of the playoffs last season. They are 6.5-point home favorites against the Thunder who may be playing without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (questionable).
With no Towns for at least the next month, Rudy Gobert should see an increase in production, but he has played very poorly lately. Over the last three games, Gobert is averaging 12.3 points and six rebounds per game, while failing to record an assist. Capturing assists is not Gobert's game. He is averaging 0.9 assists per game, which basically makes this a rebound-only player prop.
There is no doubt that Gobert can get there with rebounds only, especially against the Thunder who rank 27th in Rebounding Percentage. However, 15 rebounds is still a ton to get and our model has Gobert projected for only 12.2 rebounds and assists in this matchup. A great matchup, but a large prop line.
It wouldn't be surprising if Gobert bounced back with a great game as the Thunder also rank 27th in points allowed in the paint at 53.5 per game. This is Anthony Edwards' team right now and everyone else including Gobert will be playing second fiddle.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Andrew O'Connor-Watts: I’m looking at the under in this matchup for a few reasons, but I’m playing this angle until the books adjust to the absence of Karl-Anthony Towns. In minutes when Towns plays, opponents have a better Effective Field Goal Percentage by 1.6% and the Timberwolves are in the fourth percentile in Opponent 3-Point Percentage.
He’s missed just one game so far, but Towns’ first game out was an easy under 231.5 against the Memphis Grizzlies in a 109-101 Minnesota victory.
The books still haven’t adjusted to the impact Towns has just from his absence, but even if he was playing I would still like the under in this spot. The last three games between the Thunder and Timberwolves have gone under with the last two totals set at just 225.5 and 226 respectively.
The Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is questionable and if he sits I like the under even more, but the under’s hopes are far from gone if he does play.
My numbers show value on the under down to 230.5 so I’ll take the 231.5 and sit back and enjoy a brick-fest.
Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors
O'Connor-Watts: I like the Warriors in this spot, but the Rockets could exploit some of the Warriors’ weaknesses and double-digit spreads can be concerning since there’s always the chance for a backdoor cover at the end of the game.
The Warriors in the third quarter at home has been a good bet for years now, but it’s important to pick the right spots. I think tonight is one of those spots. While the Rockets do have a good record in the third quarter (12-9 ATS), on the road that record falls to 5-8, meaning they do most of their post-halftime damage at home.
The Warriors are similar with their 9-13 overall third quarter record improving to 8-3 at home. Expect Golden State to take advantage of the Rockets at the end of a four-game road trip. I like the third quarter line down to -3.
