Wednesday's are always loaded for the NBA, but tonight's slate takes on even more significance with no games scheduled for Thanksgiving day.
With 12 games on the slate and two national TV matchups anchoring tonight's action — Mavericks vs. Celtics (7:30 p.m. ET) and Clippers vs. Warriors (10 p.m. ET) — our crew has put together four bets for tonight's games.
Check out their betting analysis and best bets for Wednesday night below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Indiana Pacers
Chris Baker: The Indiana Pacers are being over-valued here after winning five straight against awful teams. Look at the teams they have played you see that all of them rank in the bottom-five in Adjusted Net Rating aside from the Toronto Raptors, who were missing Pascal Siakam and Fred Vanvleet. Should also mention that two of their five wins came against the Orlando Magic who were missing their leading scorer Paolo Banchero.
This team is generally overvalued right now, but I think the Timberwolves do have some matchup advantages they can exploit as well. The Timberwolves should be able to have success against this porous Indiana defense.
Indiana has been playing good ball of late but its been mostly predicated on their offense. Their defense still ranks 24th in adjusted defensive rating despite playing the second easiest schedule of opposing offenses per Dunks and Threes. They’ve been particularly bad at defending the rim as they are allowing the sixth-highest rim rate in the NBA.
This is a recipe for disaster against a big Minnesota offense that loves to attack the rim, ranking sixth in rim rate themselves. Another edge for the Wolves is their transition defense. Minnesota’s defense ranks ninth in transition rate and that is huge when going up against this Indiana offense that ranks third in transition frequency.
This Indiana team wants to play fast, but when they are forced to play in the half court, they drop from eighth in points per 100 to 15th. So they are essentially an average half-court offense and I would expect their offense to struggle vs a Minnesota defense that ranks second-best in half-court defense allowing just 92 points per 100 possessions.
Trust the Timberwolves to keep their four-game win streak rolling on Thanksgiving Eve.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Indiana Pacers
Austin Wang: I'm on the other side of this matchup. Pacers continue their nice start this season with a 9-6 record and 10-5 ATS after being projected to be one of the league's worst teams.
The Pacers are seventh in Offensive Rating, and have turned it up even more recently, ranking fifth in the last five games. Their offense has been a well-oiled machine with third-year standout Tyrese Haliburton running the show. Despite facing an easy schedule as Chris noted (Magic twice, Rockets, Hornets and injury-riddled Raptors), I think they match up well against the Wolves.
The Pacers shoot 3-pointers well — fourth in 3-point Rate (45.7% of total field goal attempts) and 10th in 3-point percentage (37.2%). Conversely, the Timberwolves are 23rd in Opponent’s 3-Point percentage allowed (36.6%). With the addition of Rudy Gobert, the paint gets crowded with bigs and the perimeter defense has suffered.
Also, the Pacers are excellent at getting into transition with Haliburton leading the way. They rank second in fast break points (17.4) while the Wolves are 21st in fast break points allowed. The Wolves are adept at scoring in the paint, but the presence of Myles Turner has led them to be No. 1 in opponent’s points in the paint allowed.
This Wolves team has underperformed this season as they adjust to life with Gobert, but they are finding their footing with a four-game win streak. They may have gotten it figured out, but I see plenty of edges in favor of the Pacers.
Since 2016, home teams on the eve of Thanksgiving are 38-21-1 ATS (64.4%), per the SDQL at Killer Sports. I'm backing the Pacers here as home underdogs.
Chicago Bulls vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Corey Parson: So far this season betting on home favorites has not been profitable for NBA bettors — 80-85-3 ATS (48%). The Bucks, though, have excelled as home favorites. On the season the Bucks are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS at home, the fourth-most profitable team against the spread at home in the NBA, according to Bet Labs.
FanDuel opened this game with the Bulls as 7.5-point favorites, but that number has dipped by a point overnight. The total opened up at 218 and has since been bet up to 223. The over has cashed in three of the Bucks' last 4-games.
The Bucks are the chalk side tonight, but the truth is they are just flat-out better than the Bulls and should cover this number with no problem.
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Golden State Warriors
Tyler Schmidt: For the second time this season, the Warriors rested nearly all of their starters on the road against the Pelicans. They lost both games, but their last loss was by 45 points as they still have a record below .500 at 8-10. With everyone back the Warriors are nearly double-digit home favorites against the Clippers.
After getting a big contract just before the season started, Andrew Wiggins has produced averaging 18.4 points per game, while shooting a career-best 49.3% from the field and 41.9% from behind the arc. He is also averaging a career-high 5.6 rebounds per game. Wiggins even has increased his steals.
The main area where Wiggins continues to struggle is capturing assists. He is averaging 2.1 assists per game and hasn't produced three or more assists in seven-straight games. This assist prop on FanDuel feels like a great bet as our model has Wiggins projected for 1.4 assists, which is well below the prop line.
The Clippers are playing without Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, but they still have the second-highest Defensive Rating in the league (106.8), entering tonight's games. They allow only 105.8 points and 22.8 assists per game, which both rank in the top five defensively. Over the last seven games, Wiggins is averaging 4.7 potential assists, which ranks fifth on the Warriors.
