Nuggets vs. Heat Game 3 Odds
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 214.5 -110 / -110 | -140 |
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 214.5 -110 / -110 | +120 |
Kevin Love Over 11.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120)
Love was inserted back into the rotation in Game 2 and played 22 minutes despite missing the entire fourth quarter. He struggled with his shot and scored just six points, but the 34-year-old power forward was active, hoisting nine shots, grabbing 10 rebounds, and adding an assist and two steals as well.
He finished with 17 PRA, marking the 10th time in 15 playoff starts he’s notched at least 12. In fact, Love has posted up to 15 PRA at better than a 50/50 clip in his starts this postseason:
- 12+ PRA: 10-of-15 (66.7%)
- 14+ PRA: 9-of-15 (60.0%)
- 15+ PRA 8-of-15 (53.3%)
Love’s size is needed in this series to combat the Nuggets starting lineup early in halves, as evidenced by the +18 plus/minus he finished with in Game 2, so the veteran big should continue to see 20-plus minutes a night. He has recorded at least 15 PRA in each of the seven postseason games in which he has played at least 20 minutes.
Pick: Love o11.5 PTS + REB + AST up to 14.5 (Bet365)
Michael Porter Jr. Over 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-125)
Porter had a dreadful Game 2, with just five points on 2-of-8 shooting, six rebounds, and no assists in 26 minutes. He vowed to bring more intensity in Game 3, and shooters of Porter’s ilk (over 40% on 3s for his career) tend to bounce back more often than not.
Porter has recorded at least 25 PRA in 10 of his 17 playoff games (58.8%), including 5-of-7 (71.4%) on the road. Prior to Game 2, Porter had put up at least 25 PRA in each of his past five games and eight of his past nine contests.
Pick: Porter Jr. Over 22.5 PTS + REB + AST up to 24.5 (DraftKings)
Under 110.5 First Half
The Nuggets made a litany of defensive mistakes early in Game 2, allowing the Heat to shoot 8-of-17 (47.1%) from deep. They also came out hot themselves on offense, shooting 50% (21-of-42) from the field, 43.8% (7-of-16) from behind the arc, and a perfect 8-of-8 from the stripe.
Despite all of that, the two teams combined to score 108 points in the first half, with Denver taking a 57-51 lead into the break. In Game 1, the teams combined for just 101 points at the half, bringing the two-game average to 104.5.
I expect the Nuggets to struggle to score on the road – where they average 5.2 fewer points per game this season – but I also expect them to come out with a greater level of defensive understanding and intensity after giving the Heat way too many wide-open 3-point looks in Games 1-2.
Miami has already made the Nuggets work for its offense – which has led to a Pace of just 88.9 through two games, including 86.9 in game 2 – and I expect Denver to return the favor.
Per our Action Labs data, NBA Finals first-half unders are 59-43-3 (58%) since 2005, covering by 1.8 points per game.
If we filter for NBA Finals first-half unders when the East has home court, that mark improves to 32-17–2 (65%). And if we filter deeper into the series and look at Game 3-on, the record jumps to 28-13-2 (68%).
