It's a full slate Friday in the NBA with key games all across the league. Typically I reserve this column for Wednesday nights, but with so many games, tonight's schedule was just too good to pass up.
Here are the four games I'm betting, and remember, you can track all my picks in the Action Network app.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Detroit Pistons
 7 p.m. ET NBA League Pass  |
The Bet: Cavs -5.5  |
This is a matchup and good spot play.
For starters, the Pistons run the fifth-most pick-and-rolls including passes per game this season. Their biggest weakness is against coverage at the level of the screen. Their Offensive Rating against drop defenses is 88.8. Bad, but not awful (39th percentile). Their Offensive Rating vs. teams who play at the level is 77.5, 18th percentile.
The Cavs play a top-10 rate at the level and are one of the best pick and roll teams in the league. It's a letdown spot, for sure, with the Cavaliers coming off a huge win vs. Boston in overtime. But the Cavs last season were 10-4 straight up, 8-6 ATS as a favorite vs. division teams.
This is a short flight to Detroit relative to other road trips. Detroit is 22-16-1 ATS since the start of last season as a home dog, per Killersports.com.
I make this line 14 based on adjusted preseason power ratings, and regular season small-sample numbers have it even higher, even with Detroit's win over the Warriors.
Even with the early line move against me, I'm willing to trust Cleveland. I like them up to -6.5.
Chicago Bulls vs. Boston Celtics
 7:30 p.m. ET ESPN  |
The Bet: Celtics -7.5  |
This is a half-unit play from me here. I show an edge here of about a point on the Celtics and I like the spot. Coming off a loss on Wednesday, at home, vs. a team they lost to in the last week.
The Bulls are good and fun, I legitimately enjoy watching them. But the edge here on Boston is too much. The Celtics' defense is starting to look a little better, and that should be the difference.
Toronto Raptors vs. Dallas Mavericks
 8:30 p.m. ET NBA League Pass  |
The Bet: Over 216.5 | Raptors ML +135 (0.5 units) |
I have this modeled well over the number, thanks to the Mavericks' horrible transition defense, which ranks fourth-worst. Dallas is also 20th in halfcourt defense which will help the Raptors' 16th-ranked halfcourt offense.
Expect Toronto to get downhill consistently. Luka will do his thing, though the Raptors' defensive schemes should make it tough. I'll also be looking for Pascal Siakam props which have been dynamite this season; the Mavericks really don't have a power forward to adequately match up with Siakam.
Utah Jazz vs. Los Angeles Lakers
 10:30 p.m. ET NBA League Pass  |
The Bet: Jazz +2.5 | Jazz ML +130 (0.5u) |
The Lakers have won two in a row. The Lakers have figured out how to get plus minutes out of Russell Westbrook. The Lakers have the No. 2 defense in the league.
Yeah, don't care, I'm ready to fade them again.
If Dyson Daniels makes a free throw and Matt Ryan doesn't hit an incredible fadeaway shot at the buzzer, the Pelicans win and cover on Wednesday.
This Jazz aren't favorites like the Pels were Wednesday, they are dogs here. Brandon Anderson wrote about the big math advantages the Jazz are building every game. The Lakers are anti-math. They allow the eighth-most 3-point attempts per 100 possessions and are 21st in their own attempt rate.
This is a number play. I don't see the Lakers as having turned a big corner. The Jazz have been better so far this season, and my number makes this Jazz -4. I'm good with Utah at any price.
