The NBA has gifted us an early holiday present with the changing of the season and in anticipation of Election Day, when the league will host no games. Instead, on Monday, you get 15 games with the entire league in action.
That can be overwhelming to look at on the board, so here's my betting card for Monday. You can follow all of my bets in the Action Network app.
Houston Rockets vs. Orlando Magic
 7:15 p.m. ET NBA League Pass  |
The Bet: Under 228.5  |
The Magic are among the best teams in clearing their team total this season, going 7-3 this season and clearing it by nearly 3.5 points per game.
However, look at their average total this season: 219.8 This total is nearly 10 points higher than that. The Rockets, meanwhile, are 6-4 to the under on their team total, with an average total of 229.6, in line with this.
Orlando has the ninth-longest average offensive time of possession, Houston the 12th per, Dunks And Threes. I make this 224, giving us more than enough difference against the total. Houston is 29th in halfcourt offense per possession and Orlando is dead last in transition points per 100 possessions.
This is a nice spot to fade the Magic over trend based on a way higher number than they've seen this season.
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Indiana Pacers
 7:45 p.m. ET NBA League Pass  |
The Bet: Pelicans -5  |
This is basically my last standing test of "I don't believe in the Pacers." Indy is 5-4 ATS, and this will only be their third time as a home dog this season. If we flip this four points conservatively, for home court, that makes it Pels -9 in New Orleans, and that's not great.
This is also a third-game-in-four-nights spot, so be advised there's always a chance Zion Williamson doesn't play in this spot.
However, the Pels were 8-point favorites vs. the Jazz in their second game of the season. That was before Utah proved it's not a fluke, so let's upgrade them a full six points there.
Can you get to Pels -2 vs. the Jazz to Pels -5 vs. the Pacers, even with the Jazz having won that game outright?
Do you think the gap between the Lakers, where the Pels were -2 without Brandon Ingram, and the Pacers should be three points, even with how awful the Lakers have looked this season?
If you're going to play Pacers, play the moneyline. But since I make this significantly closer to -10 than -5, I have to lay the points here.
Boston Celtics vs. Memphis Grizzlies
 9 p.m. ET NBA League Pass  |
The Bet: Celtics -3 |
I take no pleasure in telling you that Memphis is a fraud. They are 3-5 ATS on the season and the three ATS wins were the lowly, overrated Nets, the Hornets missing half their roster on a back-to-back, and the Kings.
Memphis is 0-1 as a dog so far and this is the best team they've faced all season. The Celtics are better prepared to deal with the chaos that the Grizzlies run and their switching scheme should disrupt Ja Morant who had trouble with switch schemes all last season.
Boston also has the offensive firepower to hang with the Grizzlies. Memphis' halfcourt elements are poor, but they run over you in transition. But Boston has the No.1 transition defense per possession in the league, despite their early season defensive issues.
Expect a wild scoring game, I lean over as well. But there's too much that says that this Memphis team isn't as good as its record and the Celtics let them know it on Monday.
New York Knicks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
 9:15 p.m. ET NBA League Pass  |
The Bet: Knicks +4.5 | Knicks ML (+166) |
Just too many points.
The Timberwolves may play more freely without Rudy Gobert, but the Knicks make you work too hard for this not to be a detriment to Minnesota.
I have this basically Wolves -1, well within the range for a coin flip and adding value to a small moneyline play.
The Knicks have the better point guard in Jalen Brunson. Right now, Julius Randle is playing better than Anthony Edwards or Karl-Anthony Towns. They have shooting, they have depth, and they play tougher.
Minnesota is still figuring things out, and even though they are coming off a get-right spot vs. Minnesota, this is a much better team they're facing than Houston.
Look for Obi Topping points and rebounds props, and if you bet Knicks spread, at least put a small play on the moneyline.
